Combination of Growth Model and Earned Schedule to Forecast Project Cost at Completion

To improve the accuracy of early forecasting the final cost at completion of an ongoing construction project, a new regression-based nonlinear cost estimate at completion (CEAC) methodology is proposed that integrates a growth model with earned schedule (ES) concepts. The methodology provides CEAC computations for project early-stage and middle-stage completion. To this end, this paper establishes three primary objectives, as follows: (1) develop a new formula based on integration of the ES method and four candidate growth models (logistic, Gompertz, Bass, andWeibull), (2) validate the new methodology through its application to nine past projects, and (3) select the equation with the best-performing growth model through testing their statistical validity and comparing the accuracy of their CEAC estimates. Based on statistical validity analysis of the four growth models and comparison of CEAC errors, the CEAC formula based on the Gompertz model is better-fitting and generates more accurate final-cost estimates than those computed by using the other three models and the index-based method. The proposed methodology is a theoretical contribution towards the combination of earned-value metrics with regression-based studies. It also brings practical implications associated with usage of a viable and accurate forecasting technique that considers the schedule impact as a determinant factor of cost behavio

Definition of Project Success in Reproductive Health Development Context

The reproductive health (RH) situations in developing countries are currently unstable. International and national RH authorities indicate that Thailand, one of the developing countries in Southeast Asia, has growing concerns on the increasing incidence of HIV/AIDS and other sexually transmitted diseases among adolescents, the future human capital of the nation. Maternal and child health still requires intimate care, especially for the poor households and in underserved areas. RH projects funded by international donors are valuable for country development. Technical assistance and supported funds accelerate the improvement of RH for the population. However, neither the assistance nor the funds will last eternally. The completion of the projects or termination of project funds before the initial RH problems can be solved is of great concern as the cease of funding may cause discontinuity of RH services in some countries where donors' funds are the main resources. RH project sustainability is a concept to be introduced to prevent discontinuity of the projects. Project sustainability can be used to guarantee long-term project success. It allows the future flow of benefits to be seen after the funding is stopped. The fundamental concept of project success has introduced project success criteria and factors. However, none of the generic criteria or factors focuses on project sustainability. To achieve reproductive health project success project sustainability must be included. This paper proposes that sustainability should become an additional success criterion for RH project success in addition to the existing conventional criteria

How does a new set of Earned Value Management schedule control work? : a case study in Iran

One of the most effective project time and cost controlling systems is called Earned Value Management (EVM). This system is applied worldwide in different projects of many kinds. Australia, United States, Canada, United Kingdom, Sweden and Japan were the pioneers of applying this system and new reports show that other countries are joining this list. EVM metrics are the three primary concepts of planned, accomplished and actual work, which are integrated measures of time and costs. A number of researchers have found that the time metrics didn't judiciously refer to the schedule performance of a project. One of the recent improvements to the EVM is the application of new time metrics (Schedule Variance (time) (SV(t)) and Schedule Performance Index (time) (SPI(t))), which are based on time units instead of monetary units. A 15-month Iranian pipeline project, called “Ardak-Mashad Water Supply”, was controlled by the EVM in this paper. The stages of applying the EVM in this project are described and the difficulties that the EVM team encountered are also presented. In addition, the paper attempts to clarify the application of common time EVM metrics and compare them with the new set of time metrics to interpret the schedule performance of a project. All satisfactory results of the EVM application, are displayed in this paper.

Preliminary study on the influence of collaboration on the success and efficiency of postgraduate students

Postgraduate research calls for a novel contribution to the existing literature, which should be made independently by the researcher. In many institutions, the traditional approach does not encourage or promote collaboration with others as it is thought that a student of higher education should be able to function independently. This paper argues that postgraduate students could be more successful through increased collaboration with both other PhD students and their supervisor. This proposition is supported by a survey, which shows that students are highly in favour of increasing the extent of their collaboration with others. It is envisaged that collaboration should take place from the early stages of a PhD in the form of mentoring and working closely with a supervisor to the later stages, where experience enables guidance of others to more efficient methods and analysis techniques. Increased collaboration can also provide sidebenefits such as better communication and leadership skills.Kristy L. Hansen, Morteza Shokri-Ghasabeh, Dorothy Missingha

Seismic risk analysis of Iranian construction projects

In this paper, the project earthquake occurrence risk coefficient is determined for each construction project that is located in one of Iran's twenty seismic regions. This coefficient is allocated, regardless of the current situation of the project, being in the plan or execution phase or even completed. This coefficient indicates the possibility of an earthquake occurrence during a project's life time. To find this coefficient, the Gutenberg-Richter linear relationship has been applied, in conjunction with the Poisson distribution. The Gutenberg-Richter linear equation expresses the relationship between the magnitude of an earthquake and the number of occurrences, during a fixed time, of that magnitude. To find the linear relationship for a series of earthquakes with different magnitudes occurring in the same seismic region, the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) has been used. Two linear regression assumption violations, which are variance heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation, have been tested on the available data. In the case of finding one or both of these two violations, The Generalized Least Square (GLS) has been applied to produce a better regression line. Moreover, the second order type of the Gutenberg-Richter relationship has also been determined to validate the linear one. In conclusion, by application of the Poisson distribution and by having the design earthquake's magnitude and project life time, the third parameter, which is the design earthquake occurrence risk, can be determined for a given construction project in a specific location in Iran.M. Shokri-Ghasabeh, A. Bakhshiani, M. Mofid and K. Hanse

An investigation into challenges facing distributed teams: Case of South Australian construction projects

There is increasing momentum within the construction industry to deploy distributed teams on projects, yet the major challenges that companies face for managing teams in distributed arrangements have yet to be explored in the construction context. Driven by such need, this study is intended to present an account of the major challenges encountered throughout the life cycle of offshore outsourcing arrangements within the South Australian construction industry. To this end, the study describes the observations made within the natural contexts of one construction project in terms of the challenges to the success of deploying distributed teams for outsourcing of works. Discussions remain in dialogue with relevant theories and the pertinent literature to explain the interpretations and lessons learned and to underpin the conclusions made. It is contended that this study contributes to the field by providing an illuminating insight into potential challenges facing distributed teams being implemented in outsourcing tasks in construction projects. Discussions also offer practical guidelines for construction project managers and assist them in dealing with potential challenges of offshore outsourcing through the lenses of distributed team working principles