Estimating Stellar Parameters from Spectra using a Hierarchical Bayesian Approach

A method is developed for fitting theoretically predicted astronomical spectra to an observed spectrum. Using a hierarchical Bayesian principle, the method takes both systematic and statistical measurement errors into account, which has not been done before in the astronomical literature. The goal is to estimate fundamental stellar parameters and their associated uncertainties. The non-availability of a convenient deterministic relation between stellar parameters and the observed spectrum, combined with the computational complexities this entails, necessitate the curtailment of the continuous Bayesian model to a reduced model based on a grid of synthetic spectra. A criterion for model selection based on the so-called predictive squared error loss function is proposed, together with a measure for the goodness-of-fit between observed and synthetic spectra. The proposed method is applied to the infrared 2.38--2.60 \mic ISO-SWS data (Infrared Space Observatory - Short Wavelength Spectrometer) of the star $\alpha$ Bootis, yielding estimates for the stellar parameters: effective temperature \Teff = 4230 $\pm$ 83 K, gravity $\log$ g = 1.50 $\pm$ 0.15 dex, and metallicity [Fe/H] = $-0.30 \pm 0.21$ dex.Comment: 15 pages, 8 figures, 5 tables. Accepted for publication in MNRA

Magnetoresistance of Junctions made of Underdoped YBCO Separated by a Ga-doped YBCO Barrier

We report magnetoresistance measurements of ramp type superconductor-normal-superconductor (SNS) junctions. The junctions consist of underdoped $YBa_{2}Cu_{3}O_y$ (YBCO) electrodes separated by a barrier of $YBa_{2}Cu_{2.6}Ga_{0.4}O_y$. We observe a large positive magnetoresistance, linear in the field. We suggest that this unusual magnetoresistance originates in the field dependence of the proximity effect. Our results indicate that in underdoped YBCO/N/YBCO SNS structures, the proximity effect does not exhibit the anomalously long range found in optimally doped YBCO structures. From our data we obtain the diffusion coefficient and relaxation time of quasiparticles in underdoped YBCO.Comment: 5 figures, accepted for publication in Physical Review

Epidemiology of Mycobacterium tuberculosis lineages and strain clustering within urban and peri-urban settings in Ethiopia

BACKGROUND: Previous work has shown differential predominance of certain Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M. tb) lineages and sub-lineages among different human populations in diverse geographic regions of Ethiopia. Nevertheless, how strain diversity is evolving under the ongoing rapid socio-economic and environmental changes is poorly understood. The present study investigated factors associated with M. tb lineage predominance and rate of strain clustering within urban and peri-urban settings in Ethiopia. METHODS: Pulmonary Tuberculosis (PTB) and Cervical tuberculous lymphadenitis (TBLN) patients who visited selected health facilities were recruited in the years of 2016 and 2017. A total of 258 M. tb isolates identified from 163 sputa and 95 fine-needle aspirates (FNA) were characterized by spoligotyping and compared with international M.tb spoligotyping patterns registered at the SITVIT2 databases. The molecular data were linked with clinical and demographic data of the patients for further statistical analysis. RESULTS: From a total of 258 M. tb isolates, 84 distinct spoligotype patterns that included 58 known Shared International Type (SIT) patterns and 26 new or orphan patterns were identified. The majority of strains belonged to two major M. tb lineages, L3 (35.7%) and L4 (61.6%). The observed high percentage of isolates with shared patterns (n = 200/258) suggested a substantial rate of overall clustering (77.5%). After adjusting for the effect of geographical variations, clustering rate was significantly lower among individuals co-infected with HIV and other concomitant chronic disease. Compared to L4, the adjusted odds ratio and 95% confidence interval (AOR; 95% CI) indicated that infections with L3 M. tb strains were more likely to be associated with TBLN [3.47 (1.45, 8.29)] and TB-HIV co-infection [2.84 (1.61, 5.55)]. CONCLUSION: Despite the observed difference in strain diversity and geographical distribution of M. tb lineages, compared to earlier studies in Ethiopia, the overall rate of strain clustering suggests higher transmission and warrant more detailed investigations into the molecular epidemiology of TB and related factors

The ILIUM forward modelling algorithm for multivariate parameter estimation and its application to derive stellar parameters from Gaia spectrophotometry

I introduce an algorithm for estimating parameters from multidimensional data based on forward modelling. In contrast to many machine learning approaches it avoids fitting an inverse model and the problems associated with this. The algorithm makes explicit use of the sensitivities of the data to the parameters, with the goal of better treating parameters which only have a weak impact on the data. The forward modelling approach provides uncertainty (full covariance) estimates in the predicted parameters as well as a goodness-of-fit for observations. I demonstrate the algorithm, ILIUM, with the estimation of stellar astrophysical parameters (APs) from simulations of the low resolution spectrophotometry to be obtained by Gaia. The AP accuracy is competitive with that obtained by a support vector machine. For example, for zero extinction stars covering a wide range of metallicity, surface gravity and temperature, ILIUM can estimate Teff to an accuracy of 0.3% at G=15 and to 4% for (lower signal-to-noise ratio) spectra at G=20. [Fe/H] and logg can be estimated to accuracies of 0.1-0.4dex for stars with G<=18.5. If extinction varies a priori over a wide range (Av=0-10mag), then Teff and Av can be estimated quite accurately (3-4% and 0.1-0.2mag respectively at G=15), but there is a strong and ubiquitous degeneracy in these parameters which limits our ability to estimate either accurately at faint magnitudes. Using the forward model we can map these degeneracies (in advance), and thus provide a complete probability distribution over solutions. (Abridged)Comment: MNRAS, in press. This revision corrects a few minor errors and typos. A better formatted version for A4 paper is available at http://www.mpia.de/home/calj/ilium.pd

Long Wave Infrared Type II Superlattice Focal Plane Array Detector

The XBn/XBp family of barrier detectors enables diffusion limited dark currents comparable with HgxCd1-xTe Rule-07 and high quantum efficiencies. SCD’s XBp type II superlattice (T2SL) detector contains InAs/GaSb and InAs/AlSb T2SLs, and was designed for the long wave infrared (LWIR) atmospheric window using k · p based modeling of the energy bands and photo-response. Wafers are grown by molecular beam epitaxy and are fabricated into focal plane array (FPA) detectors using standard FPA processes, including wet and dry etching, indium bump hybridisation, under-fill, and back-side polishing. The 640 × 512 pixel, 15 μm pitch, detector goes by the name of ‘Pelican-D LW’ and exhibits a quantum efficiency of ~ 50 per cent with background limited performance at an operating temperature of 77 K. It has a cut-off wave length of ~ 9.5 μm, with a pixel operability of above 99 per cent. The detector gives a very stable image with a residual non uniformity of below 0.04 per cent over its useful dynamic range. A new digital read-out integrated circuit has been designed so that the complete detector closely follows the configuration of SCD’s MWIR Pelican-D detector

Mining social mixing patterns for infectious disease models based on a two-day population survey in Belgium

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Until recently, mathematical models of person to person infectious diseases transmission had to make assumptions on transmissions enabled by personal contacts by estimating the so-called WAIFW-matrix. In order to better inform such estimates, a population based contact survey has been carried out in Belgium over the period March-May 2006. In contrast to other European surveys conducted simultaneously, each respondent recorded contacts over two days. Special attention was given to holiday periods, and respondents with large numbers of professional contacts.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Participants kept a paper diary with information on their contacts over two different days. A contact was defined as a two-way conversation of at least three words in each others proximity. The contact information included the age of the contact, gender, location, duration, frequency, and whether or not touching was involved.</p> <p>For data analysis, we used association rules and classification trees. Weighted generalized estimating equations were used to analyze contact frequency while accounting for the correlation between contacts reported on the two different days.</p> <p>A contact surface, expressing the average number of contacts between persons of different ages was obtained by a bivariate smoothing approach and the relation to the so-called next-generation matrix was established.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>People mostly mixed with people of similar age, or with their offspring, their parents and their grandparents. By imputing professional contacts, the average number of daily contacts increased from 11.84 to 15.70. The number of reported contacts depended heavily on the household size, class size for children and number of professional contacts for adults. Adults living with children had on average 2 daily contacts more than adults living without children. In the holiday period, the daily contact frequency for children and adolescents decreased with about 19% while a similar observation is made for adults in the weekend. These findings can be used to estimate the impact of school closure.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We conducted a diary based contact survey in Belgium to gain insights in social interactions relevant to the spread of infectious diseases. The resulting contact patterns are useful to improve estimating crucial parameters for infectious disease transmission models.</p

Epidemiology of Mycobacterium tuberculosis lineages and strain clustering within urban and peri-urban settings in Ethiopia

Background Previous work has shown differential predominance of certain Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M. tb) lineages and sub-lineages among different human populations in diverse geographic regions of Ethiopia. Nevertheless, how strain diversity is evolving under the ongoing rapid socio-economic and environmental changes is poorly understood. The present study investigated factors associated with M. tb lineage predominance and rate of strain clustering within urban and peri-urban settings in Ethiopia. Methods Pulmonary Tuberculosis (PTB) and Cervical tuberculous lymphadenitis (TBLN) patients who visited selected health facilities were recruited in the years of 2016 and 2017. A total of 258 M. tb isolates identified from 163 sputa and 95 fine-needle aspirates (FNA) were characterized by spoligotyping and compared with international M.tb spoligotyping patterns registered at the SITVIT2 databases. The molecular data were linked with clinical and demographic data of the patients for further statistical analysis. Results From a total of 258 M. tb isolates, 84 distinct spoligotype patterns that included 58 known Shared International Type (SIT) patterns and 26 new or orphan patterns were identified. The majority of strains belonged to two major M. tb lineages, L3 (35.7%) and L4 (61.6%). The observed high percentage of isolates with shared patterns (n = 200/258) suggested a substantial rate of overall clustering (77.5%). After adjusting for the effect of geographical variations, clustering rate was significantly lower among individuals co-infected with HIV and other concomitant chronic disease. Compared to L4, the adjusted odds ratio and 95% confidence interval (AOR; 95% CI) indicated that infections with L3 M. tb strains were more likely to be associated with TBLN [3.47 (1.45, 8.29)] and TB-HIV co-infection [2.84 (1.61, 5.55)]. Conclusion Despite the observed difference in strain diversity and geographical distribution of M. tb lineages, compared to earlier studies in Ethiopia, the overall rate of strain clustering suggests higher transmission and warrant more detailed investigations into the molecular epidemiology of TB and related factors