Variation in relapse frequency and the transmission potential of Plasmodium vivax malaria

There is substantial variation in the relapse frequency of Plasmodium vivax malaria, with fast-relapsing strains in tropical areas, and slow-relapsing strains in temperate areas with seasonal transmission. We hypothesize that much of the phenotypic diversity in P. vivax relapses arises from selection of relapse frequency to optimize transmission potential in a given environment, in a process similar to the virulence trade-off hypothesis. We develop mathematical models of P. vivax transmission and calculate the basic reproduction number R0 to investigate how transmission potential varies with relapse frequency and seasonality. In tropical zones with year-round transmission, transmission potential is optimized at intermediate relapse frequencies of two to three months: slower-relapsing strains increase the opportunity for onward transmission to mosquitoes, but also increase the risk of being outcompeted by faster-relapsing strains. Seasonality is an important driver of relapse frequency for temperate strains, with the time to first relapse predicted to be six to nine months, coinciding with the duration between seasonal transmission peaks. We predict that there is a threshold degree of seasonality, below which fast-relapsing tropical strains are selected for, and above which slow-relapsing temperate strains dominate, providing an explanation for the observed global distribution of relapse phenotypes

HIV-1 transmitting couples have similar viral load set-points in Rakai, Uganda.

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Transmission Selects for HIV-1 Strains of Intermediate Virulence: A Modelling Approach

Recent data shows that HIV-1 is characterised by variation in viral virulence factors that is heritable between infections, which suggests that viral virulence can be naturally selected at the population level. A trade-off between transmissibility and duration of infection appears to favour viruses of intermediate virulence. We developed a mathematical model to simulate the dynamics of putative viral genotypes that differ in their virulence. As a proxy for virulence, we use set-point viral load (SPVL), which is the steady density of viral particles in blood during asymptomatic infection. Mutation, the dependency of survival and transmissibility on SPVL, and host effects were incorporated into the model. The model was fitted to data to estimate unknown parameters, and was found to fit existing data well. The maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters produced a model in which SPVL converged from any initial conditions to observed values within 100–150 years of first emergence of HIV-1. We estimated the 1) host effect and 2) the extent to which the viral virulence genotype mutates from one infection to the next, and found a trade-off between these two parameters in explaining the variation in SPVL. The model confirms that evolution of virulence towards intermediate levels is sufficiently rapid for it to have happened in the early stages of the HIV epidemic, and confirms that existing viral loads are nearly optimal given the assumed constraints on evolution. The model provides a useful framework under which to examine the future evolution of HIV-1 virulence

Variable effect of co-infection on the HIV infectivity: Within-host dynamics and epidemiological significance

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Recent studies have implicated viral characteristics in accounting for the variation in the HIV set-point viral load (spVL) observed among individuals. These studies have suggested that the spVL might be a heritable factor. The spVL, however, is not in an absolute equilibrium state; it is frequently perturbed by immune activations generated by co-infections, resulting in a significant amplification of the HIV viral load (VL). Here, we postulated that if the HIV replication capacity were an important determinant of the spVL, it would also determine the effect of co-infection on the VL. Then, we hypothesized that viral factors contribute to the variation of the effect of co-infection and introduce variation among individuals.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We developed a within-host deterministic differential equation model to describe the dynamics of HIV and malaria infections, and evaluated the effect of variations in the viral replicative capacity on the VL burden generated by co-infection. These variations were then evaluated at population level by implementing a between-host model in which the relationship between VL and the probability of HIV transmission per sexual contact was used as the within-host and between-host interface.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Our within-host results indicated that the combination of parameters generating low spVL were unable to produce a substantial increase in the VL in response to co-infection. Conversely, larger spVL were associated with substantially larger increments in the VL. In accordance, the between-host model indicated that co-infection had a negligible impact in populations where the virus had low replicative capacity, reflected in low spVL. Similarly, the impact of co-infection increased as the spVL of the population increased.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our results indicated that variations in the viral replicative capacity would influence the effect of co-infection on the VL. Therefore, viral factors could play an important role driving several virus-related processes such as the increment of the VL induced by co-infections. These results raise the possibility that biological differences could alter the effect of co-infection and underscore the importance of identifying these factors for the implementation of control interventions focused on co-infection.</p

Estimated Effect of Inactivated Poliovirus Vaccine Campaigns, Nigeria and Pakistan, January 2014-April 2016

In 2014, inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) campaigns were implemented in Nigeria and Pakistan after clinical trials showed that IPV boosts intestinal immunity in children previously given oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV). We estimated the effect of these campaigns by using surveillance data collected during January 2014–April 2016. In Nigeria, campaigns with IPV and trivalent OPV (tOPV) substantially reduced the incidence of poliomyelitis caused by circulating serotype-2 vaccine–derived poliovirus (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0.17 for 90 days after vs. 90 days before campaigns, 95% CI 0.04–0.78) and the prevalence of virus in environmental samples (prevalence ratio [PR] 0.16, 95% CI 0.02–1.33). Campaigns with tOPV alone resulted in similar reductions (IRR 0.59, 95% CI 0.18–1.97; PR 0.45, 95% CI 0.21–0.95). In Pakistan, the effect of IPV+tOPV campaigns on wild-type poliovirus was not significant. Results suggest that administration of IPV alongside OPV can decrease poliovirus transmission if high vaccine coverage is achieved

Extended insight into the Mycobacterium chelonae-abscessus complex through whole genome sequencing of Mycobacterium salmoniphilum outbreak and Mycobacterium salmoniphilum-like strains

Members of the Mycobacterium chelonae-abscessus complex (MCAC) are close to the mycobacterial ancestor and includes both human, animal and fish pathogens. We present the genomes of 14 members of this complex: the complete genomes of Mycobacterium salmoniphilum and Mycobacterium chelonae type strains, seven M. salmoniphilum isolates, and five M. salmoniphilum-like strains including strains isolated during an outbreak in an animal facility at Uppsala University. Average nucleotide identity (ANI) analysis and core gene phylogeny revealed that the M. salmoniphilum-like strains are variants of the human pathogen Mycobacterium franklinii and phylogenetically close to Mycobacterium abscessus. Our data further suggested that M. salmoniphilum separates into three branches named group I, II and III with the M. salmoniphilum type strain belonging to group II. Among predicted virulence factors, the presence of phospholipase C (plcC), which is a major virulence factor that makes M. abscessus highly cytotoxic to mouse macrophages, and that M. franklinii originally was isolated from infected humans make it plausible that the outbreak in the animal facility was caused by a M. salmoniphilum-like strain. Interestingly, M. salmoniphilum-like was isolated from tap water suggesting that it can be present in the environment. Moreover, we predicted the presence of mutational hotspots in the M. salmoniphilum isolates and 26% of these hotspots overlap with genes categorized as having roles in virulence, disease and defense. We also provide data about key genes involved in transcription and translation such as sigma factor, ribosomal protein and tRNA genes

Extensive genomic diversity among Mycobacterium marinum strains revealed by whole genome sequencing

Mycobacterium marinum is the causative agent for the tuberculosis-like disease mycobacteriosis in fish and skin lesions in humans. Ubiquitous in its geographical distribution, M. marinum is known to occupy diverse fish as hosts. However, information about its genomic diversity is limited. Here, we provide the genome sequences for 15 M. marinum strains isolated from infected humans and fish. Comparative genomic analysis of these and four available genomes of the M. marinum strains M, E11, MB2 and Europe reveal high genomic diversity among the strains, leading to the conclusion that M. marinum should be divided into two different clusters, the "M"- and the "Aronson"-type. We suggest that these two clusters should be considered to represent two M. marinum subspecies. Our data also show that the M. marinum pan-genome for both groups is open and expanding and we provide data showing high number of mutational hotspots in M. marinum relative to other mycobacteria such as Mycobacterium tuberculosis. This high genomic diversity might be related to the ability of M. marinum to occupy different ecological niches