Effectiveness of a serological tool to predict malaria transmission intensity in an elimination setting.

BACKGROUND: Sri Lanka achieved the WHO certificate as a malaria free country in September 2016, thus monitoring of malaria transmission using sensitive and effective tools is an important need. Use of age-specific antibody prevalence as a serological tool to predict transmission intensity is proven to be a cost effective and reliable method under elimination settings. This paper discusses the correlation of four anti-malarial antibodies against vivax and falciparum malaria with the declining transmission intensities in two previously high malaria endemic districts i.e. Kurunegala and Moneragala of Sri Lanka. METHODS: Sera was collected from 1,186 individuals from the two districts and were subjected to standard ELISA together with control sera from non-immune individuals to obtain Optical Density (OD) values for four anti-malarial antibodies i.e. anti-MSP1 and anti-AMA1 for both Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum. The sero-positive samples were determined as mean OD + 3SD of the negative controls. The sero-prevalence was analyzed against the demographic characteristics of the population. A simple reversible catalytic model was fitted into sero-prevalence data to predict the sero-conversion and sero-reversion rates. RESULTS: Over 60% of the population was sero-positive for one or more antibodies except young children (<10 years). The sero-prevalence was zero in young children and very low in young adults when compared to the older age groups. The model developed for falciparum malaria that assumed the presence of a change in transmission was not significant in the Kurunegala district although significant reduction in transmission was observed when the model was used for P. vivax antibody data in that district. In Moneragala district however, all the serological markers indicated a change in transmission that has occurred approximately 15 years ago. CONCLUSIONS: Assessment of MSP1 and AMA1 anti-malarial antibodies of P. vivax and P. falciparum proved to be useful indicators in predicting transmission under elimination settings as prevailed in Sri Lanka. The sero-conversion rates for the two districts studied are shown to be very low or zero indicating the absence of active and/or hidden transmission confirming a "true" state of elimination at least, in the two study districts in Sri Lanka

Modelling strategies to break transmission of lymphatic filariasis : aggregation, adherence and vector competence greatly alter elimination

Background: With ambitious targets to eliminate lymphatic filariasis over the coming years, there is a need to identify optimal strategies to achieve them in areas with different baseline prevalence and stages of control. Modelling can assist in identifying what data should be collected and what strategies are best for which scenarios. Methods: We develop a new individual-based, stochastic mathematical model of the transmission of lymphatic filariasis. We validate the model by fitting to a first time point and predicting future timepoints from surveillance data in Kenya and Sri Lanka, which have different vectors and different stages of the control programme. We then simulate different treatment scenarios in low, medium and high transmission settings, comparing once yearly mass drug administration (MDA) with more frequent MDA and higher coverage. We investigate the potential impact that vector control, systematic non-compliance and different levels of aggregation have on the dynamics of transmission and control. Results: In all settings, increasing coverage from 65 to 80 % has a similar impact on control to treating twice a year at 65 % coverage, for fewer drug treatments being distributed. Vector control has a large impact, even at moderate levels. The extent of aggregation of parasite loads amongst a small portion of the population, which has been estimated to be highly variable in different settings, can undermine the success of a programme, particularly if high risk sub-communities are not accessing interventions. Conclusion: Even moderate levels of vector control have a large impact both on the reduction in prevalence and the maintenance of gains made during MDA, even when parasite loads are highly aggregated, and use of vector control is at moderate levels. For the same prevalence, differences in aggregation and adherence can result in very different dynamics. The novel analysis of a small amount of surveillance data and resulting simulations highlight the need for more individual level data to be analysed to effectively tailor programmes in the drive for elimination

Seasonally timed treatment programs for Ascaris lumbricoides to increase impact - an investigation using mathematical models

There is clear empirical evidence that environmental conditions can influence Ascaris spp. free-living stage development and host reinfection, but the impact of these differences on human infections, and interventions to control them, is variable. A new model framework reflecting four key stages of the A. lumbricoides life cycle, incorporating the effects of rainfall and temperature, is used to describe the level of infection in the human population alongside the environmental egg dynamics. Using data from South Korea and Nigeria, we conclude that settings with extreme fluctuations in rainfall or temperature could exhibit strong seasonal transmission patterns that may be partially masked by the longevity of A. lumbricoides infections in hosts; we go on to demonstrate how seasonally timed mass drug administration (MDA) could impact the outcomes of control strategies. For the South Korean setting the results predict a comparative decrease of 74.5% in mean worm days (the number of days the average individual spend infected with worms across a 12 month period) between the best and worst MDA timings after four years of annual treatment. The model found no significant seasonal effect on MDA in the Nigerian setting due to a narrower annual temperature range and no rainfall dependence. Our results suggest that seasonal variation in egg survival and maturation could be exploited to maximise the impact of MDA in certain settings

Single-nucleotide polymorphism, linkage disequilibrium and geographic structure in the malaria parasite Plasmodium vivax: prospects for genome-wide association studies

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The ideal malaria parasite populations for initial mapping of genomic regions contributing to phenotypes such as drug resistance and virulence, through genome-wide association studies, are those with high genetic diversity, allowing for numerous informative markers, and rare meiotic recombination, allowing for strong linkage disequilibrium (LD) between markers and phenotype-determining loci. However, levels of genetic diversity and LD in field populations of the major human malaria parasite <it>P. vivax </it>remain little characterized.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We examined single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and LD patterns across a 100-kb chromosome segment of <it>P. vivax </it>in 238 field isolates from areas of low to moderate malaria endemicity in South America and Asia, where LD tends to be more extensive than in holoendemic populations, and in two monkey-adapted strains (Salvador-I, from El Salvador, and Belem, from Brazil). We found varying levels of SNP diversity and LD across populations, with the highest diversity and strongest LD in the area of lowest malaria transmission. We found several clusters of contiguous markers with rare meiotic recombination and characterized a relatively conserved haplotype structure among populations, suggesting the existence of recombination hotspots in the genome region analyzed. Both silent and nonsynonymous SNPs revealed substantial between-population differentiation, which accounted for ~40% of the overall genetic diversity observed. Although parasites clustered according to their continental origin, we found evidence for substructure within the Brazilian population of <it>P. vivax</it>. We also explored between-population differentiation patterns revealed by loci putatively affected by natural selection and found marked geographic variation in frequencies of nucleotide substitutions at the <it>pvmdr-1 </it>locus, putatively associated with drug resistance.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>These findings support the feasibility of genome-wide association studies in carefully selected populations of <it>P. vivax</it>, using relatively low densities of markers, but underscore the risk of false positives caused by population structure at both local and regional levels.</p> <p>See commentary: <url>http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7007/8/90</url></p

An Ensemble Framework for Projecting the Impact of Lymphatic Filariasis Interventions Across Sub-Saharan Africa at a Fine Spatial Scale

Background: Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a neglected tropical disease targeted for elimination as a public health problem by 2030. Although mass treatments have led to huge reductions in LF prevalence, some countries or regions may find it difficult to achieve elimination by 2030 owing to various factors, including local differences in transmission. Subnational projections of intervention impact are a useful tool in understanding these dynamics, but correctly characterizing their uncertainty is challenging. Methods: We developed a computationally feasible framework for providing subnational projections for LF across 44 sub-Saharan African countries using ensemble models, guided by historical control data, to allow assessment of the role of subnational heterogeneities in global goal achievement. Projected scenarios include ongoing annual treatment from 2018 to 2030, enhanced coverage, and biannual treatment. Results: Our projections suggest that progress is likely to continue well. However, highly endemic locations currently deploying strategies with the lower World Health Organization recommended coverage (65%) and frequency (annual) are expected to have slow decreases in prevalence. Increasing intervention frequency or coverage can accelerate progress by up to 5 or 6 years, respectively. Conclusions: While projections based on baseline data have limitations, our methodological advancements provide assessments of potential bottlenecks for the global goals for LF arising from subnational heterogeneities. In particular, areas with high baseline prevalence may face challenges in achieving the 2030 goals, extending the "tail"of interventions. Enhancing intervention frequency and/or coverage will accelerate progress. Our approach facilitates preimplementation assessments of the impact of local interventions and is applicable to other regions and neglected tropical diseases.</p

An Ensemble Framework for Projecting the Impact of Lymphatic Filariasis Interventions Across Sub-Saharan Africa at a Fine Spatial Scale

BackgroundLymphatic filariasis (LF) is a neglected tropical disease targeted for elimination as a public health problem by 2030. Although mass treatments have led to huge reductions in LF prevalence, some countries or regions may find it difficult to achieve elimination by 2030 owing to various factors, including local differences in transmission. Subnational projections of intervention impact are a useful tool in understanding these dynamics, but correctly characterizing their uncertainty is challenging.MethodsWe developed a computationally feasible framework for providing subnational projections for LF across 44 sub-Saharan African countries using ensemble models, guided by historical control data, to allow assessment of the role of subnational heterogeneities in global goal achievement. Projected scenarios include ongoing annual treatment from 2018 to 2030, enhanced coverage, and biannual treatment.ResultsOur projections suggest that progress is likely to continue well. However, highly endemic locations currently deploying strategies with the lower World Health Organization recommended coverage (65%) and frequency (annual) are expected to have slow decreases in prevalence. Increasing intervention frequency or coverage can accelerate progress by up to 5 or 6 years, respectively.ConclusionsWhile projections based on baseline data have limitations, our methodological advancements provide assessments of potential bottlenecks for the global goals for LF arising from subnational heterogeneities. In particular, areas with high baseline prevalence may face challenges in achieving the 2030 goals, extending the "tail" of interventions. Enhancing intervention frequency and/or coverage will accelerate progress. Our approach facilitates preimplementation assessments of the impact of local interventions and is applicable to other regions and neglected tropical diseases

An Ensemble Framework for Projecting the Impact of Lymphatic Filariasis Interventions Across Sub-Saharan Africa at a Fine Spatial Scale.

Background Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a neglected tropical disease targeted for elimination as a public health problem by 2030. Although mass treatments have led to huge reductions in LF prevalence, some countries or regions may find it difficult to achieve elimination by 2030 owing to various factors, including local differences in transmission. Subnational projections of intervention impact are a useful tool in understanding these dynamics, but correctly characterizing their uncertainty is challenging. Methods We developed a computationally feasible framework for providing subnational projections for LF across 44 sub-Saharan African countries using ensemble models, guided by historical control data, to allow assessment of the role of subnational heterogeneities in global goal achievement. Projected scenarios include ongoing annual treatment from 2018 to 2030, enhanced coverage, and biannual treatment. Results Our projections suggest that progress is likely to continue well. However, highly endemic locations currently deploying strategies with the lower World Health Organization recommended coverage (65%) and frequency (annual) are expected to have slow decreases in prevalence. Increasing intervention frequency or coverage can accelerate progress by up to 5 or 6 years, respectively. Conclusions While projections based on baseline data have limitations, our methodological advancements provide assessments of potential bottlenecks for the global goals for LF arising from subnational heterogeneities. In particular, areas with high baseline prevalence may face challenges in achieving the 2030 goals, extending the "tail" of interventions. Enhancing intervention frequency and/or coverage will accelerate progress. Our approach facilitates preimplementation assessments of the impact of local interventions and is applicable to other regions and neglected tropical diseases

Complex interactions in soil-transmitted helminth co-infections from a cross-sectional study in Sri Lanka

Co-infection with multiple soil-transmitted helminth (STH) species is common in communities with a high STH prevalence. The life histories of STH species share important characteristics, particularly in the gut, and there is the potential for interaction, but evidence on whether interactions may be facilitating or antagonistic are limited.Data from a pretreatment cross-sectional survey of STH egg deposition in a tea plantation community in Sri Lanka were analysed to evaluate patterns of co-infection and changes in egg deposition.There were positive associations between Trichuris trichiura (whipworm) and both Necator americanus (hookworm) and Ascaris lumbricoides (roundworm), but N. americanus and Ascaris were not associated. N. americanus and Ascaris infections had lower egg depositions when they were in single infections than when they were co-infecting. There was no clear evidence of a similar effect of co-infection in Trichuris egg deposition.Associations in prevalence and egg deposition in STH species may vary, possibly indicating that effects of co-infection are species dependent. We suggest that between-species interactions that differ by species could explain these results, but further research in different populations is needed to support this theory

Seasonally timed treatment programs for Ascaris lumbricoides to increase impact - an investigation using mathematical models

There is clear empirical evidence that environmental conditions can influence Ascaris spp. free-living stage development and host reinfection, but the impact of these differences on human infections, and interventions to control them, is variable. A new model framework reflecting four key stages of the A. lumbricoides life cycle, incorporating the effects of rainfall and temperature, is used to describe the level of infection in the human population alongside the environmental egg dynamics. Using data from South Korea and Nigeria, we conclude that settings with extreme fluctuations in rainfall or temperature could exhibit strong seasonal transmission patterns that may be partially masked by the longevity of A. lumbricoides infections in hosts; we go on to demonstrate how seasonally timed mass drug administration (MDA) could impact the outcomes of control strategies. For the South Korean setting the results predict a comparative decrease of 74.5% in mean worm days (the number of days the average individual spend infected with worms across a 12 month period) between the best and worst MDA timings after four years of annual treatment. The model found no significant seasonal effect on MDA in the Nigerian setting due to a narrower annual temperature range and no rainfall dependence. Our results suggest that seasonal variation in egg survival and maturation could be exploited to maximise the impact of MDA in certain settings