Emissions budgets for shipping in a 2°C and a 4°C global warming scenario, and implications for operational efficiency

To achieve the widely accepted goal of keeping global temperature rise below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, greenhouse gas emissions must reduce drastically over the coming decades. Under this premise, the assumption that the shipping industry realises the same proportionate CO2 emission reductions as all other sectors on average has strong implications. This paper begins by considering an appropriate global CO2 emissions budget associated with a temperature rise of 2°C. Next, a range of future demand scenarios for international transport shipping are presented. Meeting the demand in any of the scenarios, while remaining within the emissions budget, requires stringent increases in overall operational efficiency. Different emissions and efficiency trajectories – with efficiency expressed in terms of the Energy Efficiency Operational Indicator (EEOI) – in line with the 2°C target are analysed. The potential short and long term levers of operational efficiency are explored

CO2 abatement goals for international shipping

The Paris Agreement, which entered into force in 2016, sets the ambitious climate change mitigation goal of limiting the global temperature increase to below 2°C and ideally 1.5°C. This puts a severe constraint on the remaining global GHG emissions budget. While international shipping is also a contributor to anthropogenic GHG emissions, and CO2 in particular, it is not included in the Paris Agreement. This article discusses how a share of a global CO2 budget over the twenty-first century could be apportioned to international shipping, and, using a range of future trade scenarios, explores the requisite cuts to the CO2 intensity of shipping. The results demonstrate that, under a wide range of assumptions, existing short-term levers of efficiency must be urgently exploited to achieve mitigation commensurate with that required from the rest of the economy, with virtually full decarbonization of international shipping required as early as before mid-century

Developing and implementing circular economy business models in service-oriented technology companies

The service sector has the potential to play an instrumental role in the shift towards circular economy due to its strategic position between manufacturers and end-users. However, there is a paucity of supporting methodologies and real-life applications to demonstrate how service-oriented companies can implement circular economy principles in daily business practice. This paper addresses this gap by analysing the potential of service-oriented companies in the information and communication technology (ICT) sector to build and implement circular economy business models. To this end, the Backcasting and Eco-design for the Circular Economy (BECE) framework is applied in an ICT firm. BECE, previously developed and demonstrated for product-oriented applications, has been developed further here for applications in the service sector. By shifting the focus from a product-oriented approach to a user-centred eco-design, the paper shows how ICT firms can identify, evaluate and prioritise sustainable business model innovations for circular economy. The two most promising business model innovations are explored strategically with the aim of designing circular economy models consistent with the company's priorities of customer satisfaction and profitability. The findings suggest that ICT companies may be able to support the deployment of a circular economy in the service-oriented technology sector. Importantly, micro and small organisations can play a fundamental role if provided with macro-level support to overcome company-level barriers. Finally, the BECE framework is shown to be a valuable resource to explore, analyse and guide the implementation of circular economy opportunities in service-oriented organisations. Further research to verify the application of the findings to other service-oriented organisations is recommended

Decarbonising the critical sectors of aviation, shipping, road freight and industry to limit warming to 1.5–2°C

Limiting warming to well below 2°C requires rapid and complete decarbonisation of energy systems. We compare economy-wide modelling of 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios with sector-focused analyses of four critical sectors that are difficult to decarbonise: aviation, shipping, road freight transport, and industry. We develop and apply a novel framework to analyse and track mitigation progress in these sectors. We find that emission reductions in the 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios of the IMAGE model come from deep cuts in CO2 intensities and lower energy intensities, with minimal demand reductions in these sectors’ activity. We identify a range of additional measures and policy levers that are not explicitly captured in modelled scenarios but could contribute significant emission reductions. These are demand reduction options, and include less air travel (aviation), reduced transportation of fossil fuels (shipping), more locally produced goods combined with high load factors (road freight), and a shift to a circular economy (industry). We discuss the challenges of reducing demand both for economy-wide modelling and for policy. Based on our sectoral analysis framework, we suggest modelling improvements and policy recommendations, calling on the relevant UN agencies to start tracking mitigation progress through monitoring key elements of the framework (CO2 intensity, energy efficiency, and demand for sectoral activity, as well as the underlying drivers), as a matter of urgency

Quality of essential newborn care and neonatal resuscitation at health facilities in Afghanistan:a cross-sectional assessment

Objective To assess readiness and quality of essential newborn care and neonatal resuscitation practices in public health facilities in Afghanistan.Design Cross-sectional assessment.Setting 226 public health facilities in Afghanistan, including 77 public health facilities with at least five births per day (high-volume facilities) and 149 of 1736 public health facilities with fewer than five births per day (low-volume facilities).Participants Managers of 226 public health facilities, 734 skilled birth attendants (SBAs) working at these facilities, and 643 women and their newborns observed during childbirth at 77 high-volume health facilities.Outcome measures Availability of knowledgeable SBAs, availability of supplies and compliance with global guidelines for essential newborn care and neonatal resuscitation practices.Results At high-volume facilities, 569/636 (87.9%) of babies were dried immediately after birth, 313/636 (49.2%) were placed in skin-to-skin contact with their mother and 581/636 (89.7%) had their umbilical cord cut with a sterile blade or scissors. A total of 87 newborn resuscitation attempts were observed. Twenty-four of the 87 (27.5%) began to breath or cry after simply clearing the airway or on stimulation. In the remaining 63 (72.5%) cases, a healthcare worker began resuscitation with a bag and mask; however, only 54 (62%) used a correct size of mask and three babies died as their resuscitation with bag and mask was unsuccessful.Conclusions The study indicates room for improvement of the quality of neonatal resuscitation practices at public health facilities in Afghanistan, requiring only strengthening of the current best practices in newborn care. Certain basic and effective aspects of essential newborn care that can be improved on with little additional resources were also missing, such as skin-to-skin contact of the babies with their mother. Improvement of compliance with the standard newborn care practices must be ensured to reduce preventable newborn mortality and morbidity in Afghanistan

Decarbonising the critical sectors of aviation, shipping, road freight and industry to limit warming to 1.5–2°C

Limiting warming to well below 2°C requires rapid and complete decarbonisation of energy systems. We compare economy-wide modelling of 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios with sector-focused analyses of four critical sectors that are difficult to decarbonise: aviation, shipping, road freight transport, and industry. We develop and apply a novel framework to analyse and track mitigation progress in these sectors. We find that emission reductions in the 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios of the IMAGE model come from deep cuts in CO2 intensities and lower energy intensities, with minimal demand reductions in these sectors’ activity. We identify a range of additional measures and policy levers that are not explicitly captured in modelled scenarios but could contribute significant emission reductions. These are demand reduction options, and include less air travel (aviation), reduced transportation of fossil fuels (shipping), more locally produced goods combined with high load factors (road freight), and a shift to a circular economy (industry). We discuss the challenges of reducing demand both for economy-wide modelling and for policy. Based on our sectoral analysis framework, we suggest modelling improvements and policy recommendations, calling on the relevant UN agencies to start tracking mitigation progress through monitoring key elements of the framework (CO2 intensity, energy efficiency, and demand for sectoral activity, as well as the underlying drivers), as a matter of urgency

Prevalence of anopheline species and their Plasmodium infection status in epidemic-prone border areas of Bangladesh

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Information related to malaria vectors is very limited in Bangladesh. In the changing environment and various <it>Anopheles </it>species may be incriminated and play role in the transmission cycle. This study was designed with an intention to identify anopheline species and possible malaria vectors in the border belt areas, where the malaria is endemic in Bangladesh.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p><it>Anopheles </it>mosquitoes were collected from three border belt areas (Lengura, Deorgachh and Matiranga) during the peak malaria transmission season (May to August). Three different methods were used: human landing catches, resting collecting by mouth aspirator and CDC light traps. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) was done to detect <it>Plasmodium falciparum</it>, <it>Plasmodium vivax</it>-210 and <it>Plasmodium vivax</it>-247 circumsporozoite proteins (CSP) from the collected female species.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 634 female <it>Anopheles </it>mosquitoes belonging to 17 species were collected. <it>Anopheles vagus </it>(was the dominant species (18.6%) followed by <it>Anopheles nigerrimus </it>(14.5%) and <it>Anopheles philippinensis </it>(11.0%). Infection rate was found 2.6% within 622 mosquitoes tested with CSP-ELISA. Eight (1.3%) mosquitoes belonging to five species were positive for <it>P. falciparum</it>, seven (1.1%) mosquitoes belonging to five species were positive for <it>P. vivax </it>-210 and a single mosquito (0.2%) identified as <it>Anopheles maculatus </it>was positive for <it>P. vivax</it>-247. No mixed infection was found. Highest infection rate was found in <it>Anopheles karwari </it>(22.2%) followed by <it>An. maculatus </it>(14.3%) and <it>Anopheles barbirostris </it>(9.5%). Other positive species were <it>An. nigerrimus </it>(4.4%), <it>An. vagus </it>(4.3%), <it>Anopheles subpictus </it>(1.5%) and <it>An. philippinensis </it>(1.4%). <it>Anopheles vagus </it>and <it>An. philippinensis </it>were previously incriminated as malaria vector in Bangladesh. In contrast, <it>An. karwari</it>, <it>An. maculatus</it>, <it>An. barbirostris</it>, <it>An. nigerrimus </it>and <it>An. subpictus </it>had never previously been incriminated in Bangladesh.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Findings of this study suggested that in absence of major malaria vectors there is a possibility that other <it>Anopheles </it>species may have been playing role in malaria transmission in Bangladesh. Therefore, further studies are required with the positive mosquito species found in this study to investigate their possible role in malaria transmission in Bangladesh.</p

The cost-effectiveness of providing antenatal lifestyle advice for women who are overweight or obese: the LIMIT randomised trial

Background: Overweight and obesity during pregnancy is common, although robust evidence about the economic implications of providing an antenatal dietary and lifestyle intervention for women who are overweight or obese is lacking. We conducted a health economic evaluation in parallel with the LIMIT randomised trial. Women with a singleton pregnancy, between 10+0-20+0weeks, and BMI &ge; 25 kg/m2were randomised to Lifestyle Advice (a comprehensive antenatal dietary and lifestyle intervention) or Standard Care. The economic evaluation took the perspective of the health care system and its patients, and compared costs encountered from the additional use of resources from time of randomisation until six weeks postpartum. Increments in health outcomes for both the woman and infant were considered in the cost-effectiveness analysis. Mean costs and effects in the treatment groups allocated at randomisation were compared, and incremental cost effectiveness ratios (ICERs) and confidence intervals (95%) calculated. Bootstrapping was used to confirm the estimated confidence intervals, and to generate acceptability curves representing the probability of the intervention being cost-effective at alternative monetary equivalent values for the outcomes avoiding high infant birth weight, and respiratory distress syndrome. Analyses utilised intention to treat principles. Results: Overall, the increase in mean costs associated with providing the intervention was offset by savings associated with improved immediate neonatal outcomes, rendering the intervention cost neutral (Lifestyle Advice Group 11261.19±14573.97 versus Standard Care Group 11306.70±14562.02; p=0.094). Using a monetary value of $20,000 as a threshold value for avoiding an additional infant with birth weight above 4 kg, the probability that the antenatal intervention is cost-effective is 0.85, which increases to 0.95 when the threshold monetary value increases to$45,000. Conclusions: Providing an antenatal dietary and lifestyle intervention for pregnant women who are overweight or obese is not associated with increased costs or cost savings, but is associated with a high probability of cost effectiveness. Ongoing participant follow-up into childhood is required to determine the medium to long-term impact of the observed, short-term endpoints, to more accurately estimate the value of the intervention on risk of obesity, and associated costs and health outcomes

Resilient or environmentally friendly? Both are possible when seafood businesses prepare for long-term risks

To ensure sustainable seafood production for future generations, seafood businesses must be resilient in the face of future shocks and stresses. Recent research suggests that by increasing alignment with principles of circular economy such as eliminating waste and regenerating natural environments, seafood companies may be able to improve their general resilience (i.e. resilience to unforeseen disruptions). Research presented here empirically explores potential links between circular economy, risk mitigation and resilience through a survey and workshops with seafood businesses in the United Kingdom. We found that many of the seafood companies participating in our research are actively implementing a range of circular economy actions such as recycling materials and minimising the use of single-use plastics. When identifying specific risks, businesses tended to adopt short-term mitigation measures that were less likely than longer-term measures to be aligned with circular economy principles. While businesses felt confident about their ability to adapt to and survive future risks, a focus on short-term risk mitigation might reduce their capacity to plan for longer term risks. An inability to identify and prepare for longer-term risks may also impede businesses’ ability to increase their resilience to unforeseen disruptions and lock companies into a reactive, rather than a capacity-building cycle of risk mitigation