Robust forecasting of mortality and fertility rates: a functional data approach

We propose a new method for forecasting age-specific mortality and fertility rates observed over time. Our approach allows for smooth functions of age, is robust for outlying years due to wars and epidemics, and provides a modelling framework that is easily adapted to allow for constraints and other information. We combine ideas from functional data analysis, nonparametric smoothing and robust statistics to form a methodology that is widely applicable to any functional time series data, and age-specific mortality and fertility in particular. We show that our model is a generalization of the Lee-Carter model commonly used in mortality and fertility forecasting. The methodology is applied to French mortality data and Australian fertility data, and we show that the forecasts obtained are superior to those from the Lee-Carter method and several of its variants.Fertility Forecasting, Functional Data, Mortality Forecasting, Nonparametric Smoothing, Principal Components, Robustness.

Testing the limits of contextual constraint: interactions with word frequency and parafoveal preview during fluent reading

Contextual constraint is a key factor affecting a word's fixation duration and its likelihood of being fixated during reading. Previous research has generally demonstrated additive effects of predictability and frequency in fixation times. Studies examining the role of parafoveal preview have shown that greater preview benefit is obtained from more predictable and higher frequency words versus less predictable and lower frequency words. In two experiments, we investigated effects of target word predictability, frequency, and parafoveal preview. A 3 (Predictability: low, medium, high) × 2 (Frequency: low, high) design was used with Preview (valid, invalid) manipulated between experiments. With valid previews, we found main effects of Predictability and Frequency in both fixation time and probability measures, including an interaction in early fixation measures. With invalid preview, we again found main effects of Predictability and Frequency in fixation times, but no evidence of an interaction. Fixation probability showed a weak Predictability effect and Predictability-Frequency interaction. Predictability interacted with Preview in early fixation time and probability measures. Our findings suggest that high levels of contextual constraint exert an early influence during lexical processing in reading. Results are discussed in terms of models of language processing and eye movement control

Early EEG correlates of word frequency and contextual predictability in reading

Previous research into written language comprehension has been equivocal as to whether word frequency and contextual predictability effects share an early time course of processing. Target word frequency (low, high) and its predictability from prior context (low, high) were manipulated across two-sentence passages. Context sentences were presented in full, followed by word-by-word presentation (300 ms SOA) of target sentences. ERPs were analysed across left-to-right and anterior-to-posterior regions of interest within intervals from 50 to 550 ms post-stimulus. The onset of significant predictability effects (50–80 ms) preceded that of frequency (P1, 80–120 ms), while both main effects were generally sustained through the N400 (350–550 ms). Critically, the frequency-predictability interaction became significant in the P1 and was sustained through the N400, although the specific configuration of effects differed across components. The pattern of findings supports an early, chronometric locus of contextual predictability in recognising words during reading

Continuous Workout Mortgages

This paper models Continuous Workout Mortgages (CWMs) in an economic environment with refinancings and prepayments by employing a market-observable variable such as the house price index of the pertaining locality. Our main results include: (a) explicit modelling of repayment and interest-only CWMs; (b) closed form formulae for mortgage payment and mortgage balance of a repayment CWM; (c) a closed form formula for the actuarially fair mortgage rate of an interest-only CWM. For repayment CWMs we extend our analysis to include two negotiable parameters: adjustable "workout proportion" and adjustable "workout threshold." These results are of importance as they not only help understanding the mechanics of CWMs and estimating key contract parameters. These results are of importance as they not only help in the understanding of the mechanics of CWMs and estimating key contract parameters, but they also provide guidance on how to enhance the resilience of the financial architecture and mitigate systemic risk.Continuous Workout Mortgage (CWM), Repayment, Interest-only, House price index, Prepayment intensity, Cap and floor on continuous flow

Malignant Glaucoma: A Review of the Modern Literature

Malignant glaucoma is a rare form of glaucoma that typically follows surgery in patients with primary angle closure and primary angle-closure glaucoma. In this paper, the clinical features, classification, pathogenesis, and principles of management are discussed. Despite a high prevalence of primary angle closure glaucoma in South-East Asia, the vast majority of cases of malignant glaucoma are reported in White populations. This may reflect differing mechanisms of angle closure in White and Asian patients, which somehow reduces the likelihood of an aberrant relationship developing between the lens, ciliary body, anterior hyaloid, and vitreous structures within the eye. Although the exact underlying pathogenic mechanism remains unclear, the prognosis is good with modern medical, laser, and surgical treatment modalities

Flow resistance of vegetated weir-like obstacles during high water stages

River hydrodynamicsBed roughness and flow resistanc

Severe Anaphylaxis to Volplex, a Colloid Solution during Cesarean Section: A Case Report and Review

Anaphylaxis is a life-threatening event that can occur anytime during pregnancy. It has been reported following administration of various substances with adverse maternal and neonatal consequences. It should be considered in the differential diagnosis of intrapartum collapse. We encountered a case of severe anaphylactic reaction following a routine cesarean section. It is very important that all members of the perinatal team are aware of early recognition and management of anaphylactic reaction. We think that it is important to highlight this as a further case report of severe anaphylactic reaction to a colloid solution and discuss the pathophysiology and management

Torsion and Nonmetricity in Scalar-Tensor Theories of Gravity

We show that the gravitational field equations derived from an action composed of i) an arbitrary function of the scalar curvature and other scalar fields plus ii) connection-independent kinetic and source terms, are identical whether one chooses nonmetricity to vanish and have non-zero torsion or vice versa.Comment: 10 page

Mandate-driven networking eco-system : a paradigm shift in end-to-end communications

The wireless industry is driven by key stakeholders that follow a holistic approach of "one-system-fits-all" that leads to moving network functionality of meeting stringent End-to-End (E2E) communication requirements towards the core and cloud infrastructures. This trend is limiting smaller and new players for bringing in new and novel solutions. For meeting these E2E requirements, tenants and end-users need to be active players for bringing their needs and innovations. Driving E2E communication not only in terms of quality of service (QoS) but also overall carbon footprint and spectrum efficiency from one specific community may lead to undesirable simplifications and a higher level of abstraction of other network segments may lead to sub-optimal operations. Based on this, the paper presents a paradigm shift that will enlarge the role of wireless innovation at academia, Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SME)'s, industries and start-ups while taking into account decentralized mandate-driven intelligence in E2E communications

The protective effect of exercise on diabetic nephropathy : the role of histidine-containing dipeptides

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