Late-20th-century changes in glacier extent in the Caucasus Mountains, Russia/Georgia

Glaciers occupy an area of ∼1600 km2 in the Caucasus Mountains. There is widespread evidence of retreat since the Little Ice Age, but an up-to-date regional assessment of glacier change is lacking. In this paper, satellite imagery (Landsat Thematic Mapper and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus) is used to obtain the terminus position of 113 glaciers in the central Caucasus in 1985 and 2000, using a manual delineation process based on a false-colour composite (bands 5, 4, 3). Measurements reveal that 94% of the glaciers have retreated, 4% exhibited no overall change and 2% advanced. The mean retreat rate equates to ∼8 m a−1, and maximum retreat rates approach ∼38 m a−1. The largest (>10 km2) glaciers retreated twice as much (∼12 m a−1) as the smallest (<1 km2) glaciers (∼6 m a−1), and glaciers at lower elevations generally retreated greater distances. Supraglacial debris cover has increased in association with glacier retreat, and the surface area of bare ice has reduced by ∼10% between 1985 and 2000. Results are compared to declassified Corona imagery from the 1960s and 1970s and detailed field measurements and mass-balance data for Djankuat glacier, central Caucasus. It is concluded that the decrease in glacier area appears to be primarily driven by increasing temperatures since the 1970s and especially since the mid-1990s. Continued retreat could lead to considerable changes in glacier runoff, with implications for regional water resources

Desert dust deposition on Mt. Elbrus, Caucasus Mountains, Russia in 2009-2012 as recorded in snow and shallow ice core: high-resolution "provenancing", transport patterns, physical properties and soluble ionic composition

A record of dust deposition events between 2009 and 2012 on Mt. Elbrus, Caucasus Mountains derived from a snow pit and a shallow ice core is presented for the first time for this region. A combination of isotopic analysis, SEVIRI red-green-blue composite imagery, MODIS atmospheric optical depth fields derived using the Deep Blue algorithm, air mass trajectories derived using the HYSPLIT model and analysis of meteorological data enabled identification of dust source regions with high temporal (hours) and spatial (cf. 20–100 km) resolution. Seventeen dust deposition events were detected; fourteen occurred in March–June, one in February and two in October. Four events originated in the Sahara, predominantly in north-eastern Libya and eastern Algeria. Thirteen events originated in the Middle East, in the Syrian Desert and northern Mesopotamia, from a mixture of natural and anthropogenic sources. Dust transportation from Sahara was associated with vigorous Saharan depressions, strong surface winds in the source region and mid-tropospheric south-westerly flow with daily winds speeds of 20–30 m s−1 at 700 hPa level and, although these events were less frequent, they resulted in higher dust concentrations in snow. Dust transportation from the Middle East was associated with weaker depressions forming over the source region, high pressure centered over or extending towards the Caspian Sea and a weaker southerly or south-easterly flow towards the Caucasus Mountains with daily wind speeds of 12–18 m s−1 at 700 hPa level. Higher concentrations of nitrates and ammonium characterise dust from the Middle East deposited on Mt. Elbrus in 2009 indicating contribution of anthropogenic sources. The modal values of particle size distributions ranged between 1.98 μm and 4.16 μm. Most samples were characterised by modal values of 2.0–2.8 μm with an average of 2.6 μm and there was no significant difference between dust from the Sahara and the Middle East

Assessment of evolution and risks of glacier lake outbursts in the Djungarskiy Alatau, Central Asia, using Landsat imagery and glacier bed topography modelling

Changes in the abundance and area of mountain lakes in the Djungarskiy (Jetysu) Alatau between 2002 and 2014 were investigated using Landsat imagery. The number of lakes increased by 6.2 % from 599 to 636 with a growth rate of 0.51 % a−1. The combined areas were 16.26 ± 0.85 to 17.35 ± 0.92 km2 respectively and the overall change was within the uncertainty of measurements. Fifty lakes, whose potential outburst can damage existing infrastructure, were identified. The glacier bed topography version 2 (GlabTop2) model was applied to simulate ice thickness and subglacial topography using glacier outlines for 2000 and SRTM DEM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission digital elevation model) as input data achieving realistic patterns of ice thickness. A total of 513 overdeepenings in the modelled glacier beds, presenting potential sites for the development of lakes, were identified with a combined area of 14.7 km2. Morphometric parameters of the modelled overdeepenings were close to those of the existing lakes. A comparison of locations of the overdeepenings and newly formed lakes in the areas de-glacierized in 2000–2014 showed that 67 % of the lakes developed at the sites of the overdeepenings. The rates of increase in areas of new lakes correlated with areas of modelled overdeepenings. Locations where hazardous lakes may develop in the future were identified. The GlabTop2 approach is shown to be a useful tool in hazard management providing data on the potential evolution of future lakes

High-resolution provenance of desert dust deposited on Mt. Elbrus, Caucasus in 2009–2012 using snow pit and firn core records

The first record of dust deposition events on Mt. Elbrus, Caucasus Mountains derived from a snow pit and a shallow firn core is presented for the 2009–2012 period. A combination of isotopic analysis, SEVIRI red-greenblue composite imagery, MODIS atmospheric optical depth fields derived using the Deep Blue algorithm, air mass trajectories derived using the HYSPLIT model and analyses of meteorological data enabled identification of dust source regions with high temporal (hours) and spatial (ca. 20–100 km) resolution. Seventeen dust deposition events were detected; fourteen occurred in March–June, one in February and two in October. Four events originated in the Sahara, predominantly in northeastern Libya and eastern Algeria. Thirteen events originated in the Middle East, in the Syrian Desert and northern Mesopotamia, from a mixture of natural and anthropogenic sources. Dust transportation from Sahara was associated with vigorous Saharan depressions, strong surface winds in the source region and mid-tropospheric southwesterly flow with daily winds speeds of 20–30 m s−1 at 700 hPa level. Although these events were less frequent than those originating in the Middle East, they resulted in higher dust concentrations in snow. Dust transportation from the Middle East was associated with weaker depressions forming over the source region, high pressure centred over or extending towards the Caspian Sea and a weaker southerly or southeasterly flow towards the Caucasus Mountains with daily wind speeds of 12–18 m s−1 at 700 hPa level. Higher concentrations of nitrates and ammonium characterised dust from the Middle East deposited on Mt. Elbrus in 2009 indicating contribution of anthropogenic sources. The modal values of particle size distributions ranged between 1.98 µm and 4.16 µm. Most samples were characterised by modal values of 2.0– 2.8 µm with an average of 2.6 µm and there was no signifi- cant difference between dust from the Sahara and the Middle East

Coverage of in situ climatological observations in the world's mountains

Many mountainous environments and ecosystems around the world are responding rapidly to ongoing climate change. Long-term climatological time-series from such regions are crucial for developing improving understanding of the mechanisms driving such changes and ultimately delivering more reliable future impact projections to environmental managers and other decision makers. Whilst it is already established that high elevation regions tend to be comparatively under-sampled, detailed spatial and other patterns in the coverage of mountain climatological data have not yet been comprehensively assessed on a global basis. To begin to address this deficiency, we analyse the coverage of mountainous records from the Global Historical Climatological Network-Daily (GHCNd) inventory with respect to space, time, and elevation. Three key climate-related variables—air temperature, precipitation, and snow depth—are considered across 292 named mountain ranges. Several additional datasets are also introduced to characterize data coverage relative to topographic, hydrological, and socio-economic factors. Spatial mountain data coverage is found to be highly uneven, with station densities in several “Water Tower Units” that were previously identified as having great hydrological importance to society being especially low. Several mountainous regions whose elevational distribution is severely undersampled by GHCNd stations are identified, and mountain station density is shown to be only weakly related to the human population or economic output of the corresponding downstream catchments. Finally, we demonstrate the capabilities of a script (which is provided in the Supplementary Material) to produce detailed assessments of individual records' temporal coverage and measurement quality information. Overall, our contribution should help international authorities and regional stakeholders identify areas, variables, and other monitoring-related considerations that should be prioritized for infrastructure and capacity investment. Finally, the transparent and reproducible approach taken will enable the analysis to be rapidly repeated for subsequent versions of GHCNd, and could act as a basis for similar analyses using other spatial reporting boundaries and/or environmental monitoring station networks

Changes in the mountain river discharge in the northern Tien Shan since the mid-20th Century: Results from the analysis of a homogeneous daily streamflow data set from seven catchments

This study is an assessment of the changes in seasonal and monthly flow in seven catchments draining the northern Tien Shan Mountains in Central Asia over a period from the 1950s to the present day. The purpose is to provide a first assessment of the flow response to climate change in regionally important catchments given their contribution to the water resource. All the catchments have a natural flow regime, and are therefore sensitive to climate change, but differ in area, elevation and glacial extent. Trends in flow were characterised using the Mann-Kendall test for standard meteorological seasons and individual months for mean flow, five flow quantiles and peak-over-threshold series for the period 1974–2013 at all sites and from the 1950s where data were available. The results were related to trends in seasonal temperature and precipitation from the regional high elevation meteorological stations and glacier mass balance, equilibrium line altitude (ELA) and accumulation area ratio (AAR) records from the Tuyuksu glacier. The results show no reduction in streamflow in any catchment or season in the northern Tien Shan since the 1950s. Positive trends in all flow indicators, including peak over- threshold frequency, were observed in catchments with higher glacierization of over 10% and extensive presence of rock glaciers and permafrost indicating increased melt over the period which is characterised by a long-term increase in temperature. These trends were most evident in autumn and winter. In catchments with low glacierization, variability in summer flow was controlled primarily by precipitation of the preceding cold season. Correlation with glacier mass balance was weak but changes in ELA and AAR indicate that production of liquid runoff at higher elevations contributes to increased streamflow partly compensating for the declining glacier area. The observed changes in streamflow do not suggest any immediate problems with water availability in the northern Tien Shan. On the contrary, increased autumn and winter flows point at a more prolonged recharge of reservoirs and aquifers though eventually this water source will be exhausted

Evapotranspiration in Northern Eurasia : impact of forcing uncertainties on terrestrial ecosystem model estimates

The ecosystems in Northern Eurasia (NE) play an important role in the global water cycle and the climate system. While evapotranspiration (ET) is a critical variable to understand this role, ET over this region remains largely unstudied. Using an improved version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model with five widely used forcing data sets, we examine the impact that uncertainties in climate forcing data have on the magnitude, variability, and dominant climatic drivers of ET for the period 1979-2008. Estimates of regional average ET vary in the range of 241.4-335.7mmyr(-1) depending on the choice of forcing data. This range corresponds to as much as 32% of the mean ET. Meanwhile, the spatial patterns of long-term average ET across NE are generally consistent for all forcing data sets. Our ET estimates in NE are largely affected by uncertainties in precipitation (P), air temperature (T), incoming shortwave radiation (R), and vapor pressure deficit (VPD). During the growing season, the correlations between ET and each forcing variable indicate that T is the dominant factor in the north and P in the south. Unsurprisingly, the uncertainties in climate forcing data propagate as well to estimates of the volume of water available for runoff (here defined as P-ET). While the Climate Research Unit data set is overall the best choice of forcing data in NE according to our assessment, the quality of these forcing data sets remains a major challenge to accurately quantify the regional water balance in NE

Пути дальнего переноса пыли на ледники Кавказа и химический состав снега на Западном плато Эльбруса

We present and discuss the chronology of dust deposition events documented by the shallow firn and ice cores extracted on the Western Plateau, Mt. Elbrus (5150 m a.s.l.) in 2009, 2012 and 2013. Snow and ice samples were analysed for major ions and minor element concentrations including heavy metals. Dust layers are formed on the surface of the glaciers as a result of atmospheric transport of mineral dust and aerosol particles to the Caucasus region. Satellite imagery (SEVIRI), trajectory models, and meteorological data were used for accurate dating of each the dust layers revealed in the ice cores. Then we tried to determine origins of the dust clouds and to investigate their transport pathways with high resolution (50–100 km). It was found that the desert dust is deposited on Caucasus glaciers 3–7 times in a year and it comes mainly from deserts of the Middle East and more rarely from the Northern Sahara desert. For the first time average annual dust flux (264 µg/cm2 per a year) and average mass concentration (1.7 mg/kg) over the period 2007–2013 were calculated for this region. The deposition of dust resulted in elevated concentrations consists of mostly ions, especially Ca2+, Mg2+, K+, and sulphates. Dust originated from various sources in the Middle East, including Mesopotamia, or similar dust clouds passing over the Middle East are characterised by high concentrations of nitrates and ammonia that may be related to atmospheric transport of ammonium from agricultural lands that may explain high concentrations of ammonium in the dust originating from this region. Mean values of crustal enrichment factors (EF) for the measured minor elements including heavy metals were calculated. We believe that high content of Cu, Zn and Cd can be a result of possible contribution from anthropogenic sources. Studies of the Caucasus ice cores may allow obtaining new independent data on the atmosphere circulation and high-altitude environment of this region.Исследованы образцы из снежных шурфов и керна из неглубоких скважин, пробуренных на Западном плато Эльбруса на высоте 5100 м в 2009, 2012 и 2013 гг. Образцы снега и льда проанализированы на содержание основных соединений и микроэлементов, включая тяжёлые металлы. В результате переноса минеральных частиц на ледники Кавказа в снежно-фирновой толще формируются отчётливо различимые горизонты загрязнения. Анализ космических снимков SEVIRI, полей оптической толщины атмосферы, траекторий движения воздушных масс и метеорологических данных позволил определить первичные источники минеральных частиц для переноса пыли с высокой точностью (50–100 км). Cоставлена хронология событий переноса пыли. Установлено, что такие явления происходят на Кавказе 3–7 раз в год. Пыль принесена на ледники Эльбруса с Ближнего Востока и из Северной Африки. Выполнено первое для Кавказа прямое определение количества твёрдого вещества, выпадающего из атмосферы на поверхность на больших высотах – 264 мкг/см2 в год. Химический анализ образцов снега из горизонтов загрязнения, образовавшихся в 2009 г., показал высокое содержание нитратов, аммония и сульфатов, что связано с поступлением пыли из сельскохозяйственных районов в Месопотамии. Обнаружено повышенное содержание Cu, Zn и Cd по сравнению с естественным фоном, что может указывать на повышенный региональный фон этих элементов в Северной Африке и на Ближнем Востоке, а также на вероятный вклад антропогенных аэрозолей.