Socioeconomic and Cultural County-level Factors Associated with Race/Ethnic Differences in Body Mass Index in 4th Grade Students in Texas

Purpose: To evaluate the relationship between county-level socioeconomic environment and the propensity to be overweight or obese by race/ethnic group in a sample of fourth grade children the Texas public school system. Methods: The data used come from the School Physical Activity and Nutrition (SPAN) surveillance study – a surveillance study of school-aged children in Texas. The outcome variable used was Body Mass Index (BMI) categorized as underweight/normal/healthy, overweight, and obese. Exposure variables were derived from county-level Hispanic and Black concentration and socioeconomic data using the Human Security Index (HSI) as a framework. We made comparisons between Non-Hispanic White, Black and Hispanic children enrolled in the fourth grade. We used bivariate and regression analysis using jackknife variance estimates. Results: Hispanic and Black children were more likely to be obese and overweight than non-Hispanic White children. Hispanic and Black children were more likely to live in counties with higher economic, educational and social stress than non-Hispanic White children. In the logistic regression analysis comparing the odds of overweight or obese to underweight/healthy/normal weight, both Hispanic and Black children continued to have a higher odds of overweight and obesity than non-Hispanic White children. In separate regression analyses for each race/ethnic group (ie, Hispanic, Black, and White students) the county-level educational and social stress variables had a significant association with overweight and obesity in Hispanic children only. Hispanic ethnic concentration was associated with the odds of being overweight but not obese, while percent Black was associated with obesity in Hispanic children. There were no significant associations between socioeconomic or ethnic concentration and overweight or obese in Black children. Discussion: The results from this study indicate that county-level effects on childhood obesity may be more than just socioeconomics and ethnic concentration. Future research should involve multiple levels of analysis, including census tract, school and home variables simultaneously, in order to understand how the environments children live in impact their risk for obesity and how these influences may vary by race/ethnicity

Development and validation of multivariable prediction models for adverse COVID-19 outcomes in patients with IBD

Objectives Develop an individualised prognostic risk prediction tool for predicting the probability of adverse COVID-19 outcomes in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Design and setting This study developed and validated prognostic penalised logistic regression models using reports to the international Surveillance Epidemiology of Coronavirus Under Research Exclusion for Inflammatory Bowel Disease voluntary registry from March to October 2020. Model development was done using a training data set (85% of cases reported 13 March–15 September 2020), and model validation was conducted using a test data set (the remaining 15% of cases plus all cases reported 16 September–20 October 2020). Participants We included 2709 cases from 59 countries (mean age 41.2 years (SD 18), 50.2% male). All submitted cases after removing duplicates were included. Primary and secondary outcome measures COVID-19 related: (1) Hospitalisation+: composite outcome of hospitalisation, ICU admission, mechanical ventilation or death; (2) Intensive Care Unit+ (ICU+): composite outcome of ICU admission, mechanical ventilation or death; (3) Death. We assessed the resulting models’ discrimination using the area under the curve of the receiver operator characteristic curves and reported the corresponding 95% CIs. Results Of the submitted cases, a total of 633 (24%) were hospitalised, 137 (5%) were admitted to the ICU or intubated and 69 (3%) died. 2009 patients comprised the training set and 700 the test set. The models demonstrated excellent discrimination, with a test set area under the curve (95% CI) of 0.79 (0.75 to 0.83) for Hospitalisation+, 0.88 (0.82 to 0.95) for ICU+ and 0.94 (0.89 to 0.99) for Death. Age, comorbidities, corticosteroid use and male gender were associated with a higher risk of death, while the use of biological therapies was associated with a lower risk. Conclusions Prognostic models can effectively predict who is at higher risk for COVID-19-related adverse outcomes in a population of patients with IBD. A free online risk calculator (https://covidibd.org/covid-19-risk-calculator/) is available for healthcare providers to facilitate discussion of risks due to COVID-19 with patients with IBD

Genome-wide association and Mendelian randomisation analysis provide insights into the pathogenesis of heart failure

Heart failure (HF) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. A small proportion of HF cases are attributable to monogenic cardiomyopathies and existing genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have yielded only limited insights, leaving the observed heritability of HF largely unexplained. We report results from a GWAS meta-analysis of HF comprising 47,309 cases and 930,014 controls. Twelve independent variants at 11 genomic loci are associated with HF, all of which demonstrate one or more associations with coronary artery disease (CAD), atrial fibrillation, or reduced left ventricular function, suggesting shared genetic aetiology. Functional analysis of non-CAD-associated loci implicate genes involved in cardiac development (MYOZ1, SYNPO2L), protein homoeostasis (BAG3), and cellular senescence (CDKN1A). Mendelian randomisation analysis supports causal roles for several HF risk factors, and demonstrates CAD-independent effects for atrial fibrillation, body mass index, and hypertension. These findings extend our knowledge of the pathways underlying HF and may inform new therapeutic strategies

Genome-wide association and Mendelian randomisation analysis provide insights into the pathogenesis of heart failure

Abstract: Heart failure (HF) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. A small proportion of HF cases are attributable to monogenic cardiomyopathies and existing genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have yielded only limited insights, leaving the observed heritability of HF largely unexplained. We report results from a GWAS meta-analysis of HF comprising 47,309 cases and 930,014 controls. Twelve independent variants at 11 genomic loci are associated with HF, all of which demonstrate one or more associations with coronary artery disease (CAD), atrial fibrillation, or reduced left ventricular function, suggesting shared genetic aetiology. Functional analysis of non-CAD-associated loci implicate genes involved in cardiac development (MYOZ1, SYNPO2L), protein homoeostasis (BAG3), and cellular senescence (CDKN1A). Mendelian randomisation analysis supports causal roles for several HF risk factors, and demonstrates CAD-independent effects for atrial fibrillation, body mass index, and hypertension. These findings extend our knowledge of the pathways underlying HF and may inform new therapeutic strategies

Genome-wide association and Mendelian randomisation analysis provide insights into the pathogenesis of heart failure

Abstract: Heart failure (HF) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. A small proportion of HF cases are attributable to monogenic cardiomyopathies and existing genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have yielded only limited insights, leaving the observed heritability of HF largely unexplained. We report results from a GWAS meta-analysis of HF comprising 47,309 cases and 930,014 controls. Twelve independent variants at 11 genomic loci are associated with HF, all of which demonstrate one or more associations with coronary artery disease (CAD), atrial fibrillation, or reduced left ventricular function, suggesting shared genetic aetiology. Functional analysis of non-CAD-associated loci implicate genes involved in cardiac development (MYOZ1, SYNPO2L), protein homoeostasis (BAG3), and cellular senescence (CDKN1A). Mendelian randomisation analysis supports causal roles for several HF risk factors, and demonstrates CAD-independent effects for atrial fibrillation, body mass index, and hypertension. These findings extend our knowledge of the pathways underlying HF and may inform new therapeutic strategies

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

The gut microbiome as a modifiable risk factor in recurring communicable and chronic non-communicable intestinal diseases

The dissertation aimed to evaluate the gut microbiome as a novel and versatile tool, both as a diagnostic biomarker for colorectal cancer (CRC) which is a long term chronic disease, as well as an intervention in the form of fecal microbial transplantation (FMT) for recurring Clostridium difficile infection (CDI). CRC is a leading cause of cancer-associated mortality in the United States and survival is vastly improved with early diagnosis. Fecal occult blood test (FOBT), the current non-invasive test for CRC has limited sensitivity (single test 60%-85%) and reasonable specificity. Improving the predictive value of the diagnostic test by detecting microbial markers in feces offers a promising screening option especially if the changes in the microbiome composition can reflect early stage disease. Re- analyzing raw molecular data through a sequence-based meta-analysis of CRC- fecal and mucosal microbiome studies, this dissertation aimed to determine a fecal biomarker for the disease, compare the fecal and mucosal microbiome composition in cases, and compare the mucosal microbiome in cancer tissue with pathologically healthy tumor adjacent tissue obtained from the same case. In the meta-analysis of fecal microbiome – CRC association studies several strains including Parvimonas micra ATCC 33270, Streptococcus anginosus and yet-to-be-cultured members of Proteobacteria, were frequently and significantly increased in stools from CRC patients compared to controls across. Combining clinical features such as FOBT and microbial features improved the diagnostic accuracy of detecting CRC. From the biopsy microbiome meta-analysis, we corroborated the dominance of Fusobacterium sp. in tumor biopsies as compared to tumor adjacent mucosa and observed a trend for Parvimonas sp. and Bacteroides fragilis to be consistently elevated in tumor biopsy as well as be measured well in stool. Investigating the utility of the microbiome in infectious diseases, the dissertation aimed to determine the temporal changes in microbiota introduced by FMT administered to the colon of an infected person in various fecal forms (fresh vs. frozen vs lyophilized) in subjects with multiply recurring (≥ 3) bouts of CDI. CDI is currently the leading cause of healthcare associated infections in the United States. FMT has proven to have a high efficacy in antibiotic refractory recurrent CDI cases. Comparing the effectiveness of different types of transplantation and the kinetics of gut bacterial diversity transition from baseline to thirty days post transplantation revealed that the fresh and frozen microbiota diversity stabilized by day 7 and did not alter much further until day 30 after FMT. The lyophilized FMT recipients had a lower diversity at day 7 post FMT yet showed a sustained staggered increase in diversity and attained levels comparable to fresh and frozen FMT product recipients 30 days post FMT thus helping shed light upon the product handling and community differences that contribute to restoration of a microbial homeostasis in the gut