Assessment of tropical cyclone-induced shoreline and riverbank changes at the Rufiji Delta using satellite remote sensing methods

The study aimed at quantifying changes in shoreline and riverbanks caused by tropical cyclones (TCs) and associated rainfall in the Rufiji Delta, southern Tanzania. Long term changes of the shoreline and riverbanks were analysed using medium resolution (Landsat TM and ETM) satellite imagery (1991, 1997 and 2007), while short-term changes (2013 to 2014) were analysed using high resolution (Pleiades) satellite imagery. Delineation of the shoreline and riverbank changes were accomplished through the analysis of appropriate coloured image composites, Sobel filtering and maximum likelihood classification of land cover. Analysis of Landsat data showed a relatively higher magnitude of erosion between 1991 and 2007, followed by minor changes between 1997 and 2007. Simbauranga was the most severely eroding site, with an estimated magnitude of erosion of 83 to 100 m during the study period. The maximum magnitude of short-term changes of the riverbanks were estimated at about 31 m2. Apart from the erosion of the riverbanks, other changes were the conversion of water to vegetation covered areas (amounting to approximately 200 m2). Short-term shoreline changes were up to 206 m with higher magnitude of accretion (142 m) than erosion (-4 m). The study conclusively calls for further detailed research on shoreline and riverbank changes based on the impacts of TCs on land cover

Sediment characteristics and hydrodynamic setting of reef platform sediments of Kunduchi, north of Dar es Salaam harbour

Sediment grain size distribution, carbonate content and current velocities for the Kunduchi area are used to determine its hydrodynamic setting and sediment characteristics. The sediment mean grain size generally decreases northward. The sediments consist of medium to coarse sand south of the Tegeta River and fine sand further north. The sediment sorting values, which lack a north-south trend, vary from moderately well sorted to poorly sorted. The skewness of the sediment vary from near-symmetrical to very negatively skewed while the peakedness (kurtosis) varies from platykurtic to leptokurtic. The carbonate content increases with distance offshore, whereas the siliciclastic component decreases with distance offshore. The siliciclastic/carbonate transition of the investigated area is characterized by a narrow transition with no inter-fingering of the two facies. The lack of inter-fingering of the two facies suggests that there is a limited offshore transport of land-derived sediments. This is further supported by the drogue experiment results, which shows that the predominant surface current flows northward irrespective of the tidal phase Tanzania Journal of Science Vol. 32 (1) 2006: pp. 37-5

Morphodynamics of the Manyema tidal delta at Kunduchi, Tanzania

The prevailing northward longshore drift of beach sand on the northern part of Msasani Bay, north of Dar es Salaam, is interrupted at Kunduchi by the tidal flushing of Manyema Creek, a mangrove ecosystem partially developed for salt production. Shoreline changes around the creek mouth in recent decades have eroded coastal land and destroyed buildings, prompting stakeholders to construct protective groynes and revetments. Sand is transported across the delta by the interaction of two forcing processes – currents of water flushing the creek in response to tidal variation; and (generally) currents generated by wind-driven waves according to the monsoon season. Study of the sand morphology of the creek and delta platform together with time-series satellite imagery has permitted demarcation of the respective sand transport pathways and of morphodynamic changes on the delta over the last decade. The sand transport regime has promoted erosion of the shore to the south of the creek mouth and has led to a spasmodic delivery of sand to beaches north of the channel. Attempts to stabilise the shore around the creek mouth are described and their effectiveness evalutated

Seasonal and spatial variation of surface current in the Pemba Channel, Tanzania

This research article published by PLOS ONE, 2019The surface current speeds within the Pemba channel were examined using 24 years of drifter data received from the Global Drifter Program. This study aimed to uncover varying surface current in the Pemba Channel in different seasons. The results revealed the Pemba Channel experiences relatively higher median surface current speeds during the southeast (SE) monsoon season compared to the northeast (NE) and inter-monsoon (IN) periods. The strongest current speeds were confined in waters deeper than 200 meters between ~39.4°E and 39.7°E. These results prove that surface currents from the drifters can be used to uncover the patterns of surface circulation even in areas where in-situ measurements are scarce

On the dynamics of the Zanzibar Channel

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 120 (2015): 6091–6113, doi:10.1002/2015JC010879.The Zanzibar Channel lies between the mainland of Tanzania and Zanzibar Island in the tropical western Indian Ocean, is about 100 km long, 40 km wide, and 40 m deep, and is essential to local socioeconomic activities. This paper presents a model of the seasonal and tidal dynamics of the Zanzibar Channel based on the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) and a comparison of the model and observations. The seasonal dynamics of the channel is forced by remote processes and the local wind. Remote forcing creates the East African Coastal Current, a portion of which flows through the channel northward with a seasonally varying magnitude. The local wind enhances this seasonality in the surface Ekman layer, resulting in a stronger northward flow during the southwest monsoon season and a weak northward or occasionally southward flow during the northeast monsoon season. The tidal flows converge and diverge in the center of the channel and reduce the transport in the channel. The remotely forced, wind-forced, and tidal dynamics contain 5%, 3%, and 92% of the total kinetic energy, respectively. Despite their low kinetic energy, the remotely forced and wind-forced flows are most relevant in advecting channel water to the open ocean, which occurs in 19 days at the peak of the southwest monsoon season. The channel is well mixed, except during brief periods in the two rainy seasons, and temporarily cools between December and February. The dispersion of passive tracers is presented as an example of potential model applications.National Science Foundation Grant Numbers: OISE-0827059 , OCE-0550658 , OCE-0851493 , OCE-09274722016-03-1

Interannual monsoon wind variability as a key driver of East African small pelagic fisheries

Small pelagic fisheries provide food security, livelihood support and economic stability for East African coastal communities—a region of least developed countries. Using remotely- sensed and field observations together with modelling, we address the biophysical drivers of this important resource. We show that annual variations of fisheries yield parallel those of chlorophyll-a (an index of phytoplankton biomass). While enhanced phytoplankton biomass during the Northeast monsoon is triggered by wind-driven upwelling, during the Southeast monsoon, it is driven by two current induced mechanisms: coastal “dynamic uplift” upwelling; and westward advection of nutrients. This biological response to the Southeast monsoon is greater than that to the Northeast monsoon. For years unaffected by strong El-Niño/La-Niña events, the Southeast monsoon wind strength over the south tropical Indian Ocean is the main driver of year-to-year variability. This has important implications for the predictability of fisheries yield, its response to climate change, policy and resource management

Variability of mackerel fish catch and remotely-sensed biophysical controls in the eastern pemba channel

Advances in satellite remote sensing of environmental perturbations have become important in understanding variations of ocean productivity and small pelagic fish catches. This marine resource is vital for coastal populations dependent on artisanal fishing for their income and food security, such as in coastal East Africa. In this region, the eastern Pemba Channel (Tanzania) represents a hotspot area, for a variety of marine species including small pelagics and coral reef associated species. This study examines the links between mackerel fish catch, one of the important small pelagic fish for direct consumption in the region, and changes in environmental oceanographic parameters over the period 2012–2018. The fisheries catch data is a rare local dataset, consisting of daily mackerel landings (from 2012 onwards) and supplemented by qualitative information on the mackerel fishery obtained through interviews with local stakeholders. The physical factors influencing phytoplankton biomass, and in turn, mackerel fisheries yield is investigated, using remotely-sensed chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) and Sea Surface Temperature (SST), together with Mixed Layer Depth (MLD) data from the high-resolution ocean model NEMO. We show that seasonal variations in mackerel landings are positively (negatively) correlated with Chl-a (SST) with a 1-month time lag (i.e., biophysical factors change first, mackerel stocks follow one month later). On the eastern side of the Pemba Channel, cooler SST and higher Chl-a are observed during the Southeast monsoon accompanied by increased mackerel landings, suggestive of enhanced productivity. Interannually, these relationships remain valid both for monthly and annual means, which confirms the close link between the variations of mackerel and biophysical conditions. Analysis of the Chl-a and MLD anomalies, relative to the mean, reveals that the phytoplankton blooms observed on the eastern side of the Pemba Channel, during the Southeast monsoon, are likely due to the deepening of the mixed layer, which tends to entrain cold and nutrient rich waters from greater depths to the surface. We conclude that upper ocean mixing contributes to the observed enhanced productivity along with other environmental factors. Additionally, we show how our results can be applied in the management of the mackerel resource in the Pemba Channel

On the dynamics of the Zanzibar Channel

The Zanzibar Channel lies between the mainland of Tanzania and Zanzibar Island in the tropical western Indian Ocean, is about 100 km long, 40 km wide, and 40 m deep, and is essential to local socioeconomic activities. This paper presents a model of the seasonal and tidal dynamics of the Zanzibar Channel based on the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) and a comparison of the model and observations. The seasonal dynamics of the channel is forced by remote processes and the local wind. Remote forcing creates the East African Coastal Current, a portion of which flows through the channel northward with a seasonally varying magnitude. The local wind enhances this seasonality in the surface Ekman layer, resulting in a stronger northward flow during the southwest monsoon season and a weak northward or occasionally southward flow during the northeast monsoon season. The tidal flows converge and diverge in the center of the channel and reduce the transport in the channel. The remotely forced, wind-forced, and tidal dynamics contain 5%, 3%, and 92% of the total kinetic energy, respectively. Despite their low kinetic energy, the remotely forced and wind-forced flows are most relevant in advecting channel water to the open ocean, which occurs in 19 days at the peak of the southwest monsoon season. The channel is well mixed, except during brief periods in the two rainy seasons, and temporarily cools between December and February. The dispersion of passive tracers is presented as an example of potential model applications.The data that was used for the results of this paper can be made available upon request from the corresponding author ( [email protected]). This paper is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation primarily under grant OISE-0827059 and partially also under grants OCE-0550658, OCE-0851493, and OCE-0927472. Further support was provided by The Cornell Commitment and The DotGreen Foundation.Keywords: Ocean Modeling, Zanzibar Channel, East Africa Coastal Current, channel dynamics, monsoo

A sustainable blue economy may not be possible in Tanzania without cutting emissions.

Balancing blue growth with the conservation of wild species and habitats is a key challenge for global ocean management. This is exacerbated in Global South nations, such as Tanzania, where climate-driven ocean change requires delicate marine spatial planning (MSP) trade-offs to ensure climate resilience of marine resources relied upon by coastal communities. Here, we identified challenges and opportunities that climate change presents to the near-term spatial management of Tanzania's artisanal fishing sector, marine protected areas and seaweed farming. Specifically, spatial meta-analysis of climate modelling for the region was carried out to estimate the natural distribution of climate resilience in the marine resources that support these socially important sectors. We estimated changes within the next 20 and 40 years, using modelling projections forced under global emissions trajectories, as well as a wealth of GIS and habitat suitability data derived from globally distributed programmes. Multi-decadal analyses indicated that long-term climate change trends and extreme weather present important challenges to the activity of these sectors, locally and regionally. Only in few instances did we identify areas exhibiting climate resilience and opportunities for sectoral expansion. Including these climate change refugia and bright spots in effective ocean management strategies may serve as nature-based solutions: promoting adaptive capacity in some of Tanzania's most vulnerable economic sectors; creating wage-gaining opportunities that promote gender parity; and delivering some economic benefits of a thriving ocean where possible. Without curbs in global emissions, however, a bleak future may emerge for globally valuable biodiversity hosted in Tanzania, and for its coastal communities, despite the expansion of protected areas or curbs in other pressures. Growing a sustainable ocean economy in this part of the Global South remains a substantial challenge without global decarbonization

The small pelagic fishery of the Pemba Channel, Tanzania: what we know and what we need to know for management under climate change

Small pelagic fish, including anchovies, sardines and sardinellas, mackerels, capelin, hilsa, sprats and herrings, are distributed widely, from the tropics to the far north Atlantic Ocean and to the southern oceans off Chile and South Africa. They are most abundant in the highly productive major eastern boundary upwelling systems and are characterised by significant natural variations in biomass. Overall, small pelagic fisheries represent about one third of global fish landings although a large proportion of the catch is processed into animal feeds. Nonetheless, in some developing countries in addition to their economic value, small pelagic fisheries also make an important contribution to human diets and the food security of many low-income households. Such is the case for many communities in the Zanzibar Archipelago and on mainland Tanzania in the Western Indian Ocean. Of great concern in this region, as elsewhere, is the potential impact of climate change on marine and coastal ecosystems in general, and on small pelagic fisheries in particular. This paper describes data and information available on Tanzania's small pelagic fisheries, including catch and effort, management protocols and socio-economic significance