209 research outputs found
Recommended from our members
The effect of South American biomass burning aerosol emissions on the regional climate
The impact of biomass burning aerosol (BBA) on the regional climate in South America is assessed using 30-year simulations with a global atmosphere-only configuration of the Met Office Unified Model. We compare two simulations of high and low emissions of biomass burning aerosol based on realistic interannual variability. The aerosol scheme in the model has hygroscopic growth and optical properties for BBA informed by recent observations, including those from the recent South American Biomass Burning Analysis (SAMBBA) intensive aircraft observations made during September 2012. We find that the difference in the September (peak biomass emissions month) BBA optical depth between a simulation with high emissions and a simulation with low emissions corresponds well to the difference in the BBA emissions between the two simulations, with a 71.6 % reduction from high to low emissions for both the BBA emissions and the BB AOD in the region with maximum emissions (defined by a box of extent 5–25° S, 40–70° W, used for calculating mean values given below). The cloud cover at all altitudes in the region of greatest BBA difference is reduced as a result of the semi-direct effect, by heating of the atmosphere by the BBA and changes in the atmospheric stability and surface fluxes. Within the BBA layer the cloud is reduced by burn-off, while the higher cloud changes appear to be responding to stability changes. The boundary layer is reduced in height and stabilized by increased BBA, resulting in reduced deep convection and reduced cloud cover at heights of 9–14 km, above the layer of BBA. Despite the decrease in cloud fraction, September downwelling clear-sky and all-sky shortwave radiation at the surface is reduced for higher emissions by 13.77 ± 0.39 W m−2 (clear-sky) and 7.37 ± 2.29 W m−2 (all-sky), whilst the upwelling shortwave radiation at the top of atmosphere is increased in clear sky by 3.32 ± 0.09 W m−2, but decreased by −1.36±1.67 W m−2 when cloud changes are included. Shortwave heating rates increase in the aerosol layer by 18 % in the high emissions case. The mean surface temperature is reduced by 0.14 ± 0.24 °C and mean precipitation is reduced by 14.5 % in the peak biomass region due to both changes in cloud cover and cloud microphysical properties. If the increase in BBA occurs in a particularly dry year, the resulting reduction in precipitation may exacerbate the drought. The position of the South Atlantic high pressure is slightly altered by the presence of increased BBA, and the strength of the southward low-level jet to the east of the Andes is increased. There is some evidence that some impacts of increased BBA persist through the transition into the monsoon, particularly in precipitation, but the differences are only statistically significant in some small regions in November. This study therefore provides an insight into how variability in deforestation, realized through variability in biomass burning emissions, may contribute to the South American climate, and consequently on the possible impacts of future changes in BBA emissions
Recommended from our members
Deconstructing the climate change response of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime storm tracks
There are large uncertainties in the circulation response of the atmosphere to climate change. One manifestation of this is the substantial spread in projections for the extratropical storm tracks made by different state-of-the-art climate models. In this study we perform a series of sensitivity experiments, with the atmosphere component of a single climate model, in order to identify the causes of the differences between storm track responses in different models. In particular, the Northern Hemisphere wintertime storm tracks in the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble are considered. A number of potential physical drivers of storm track change are identified and their influence on the storm tracks is assessed. The experimental design aims to perturb the different physical drivers independently, by magnitudes representative of the range of values present in the CMIP3 model runs, and this is achieved via perturbations to the sea surface temperature and the sea-ice concentration forcing fields. We ask the question: can the spread of projections for the extratropical storm tracks present in the CMIP3 models be accounted for in a simple way by any of the identified drivers? The results suggest that, whilst the changes in the upper-tropospheric equator-to-pole temperature difference have an influence on the storm track response to climate change, the large spread of projections for the extratropical storm track present in the northern North Atlantic in particular is more strongly associated with changes in the lower-tropospheric equator-to-pole temperature difference
Recommended from our members
Representation of western disturbances in CMIP5 models
Western disturbances (WDs) are synoptic extratropical disturbances embedded in the subtropical westerly jet stream. They are an integral part of the South Asian winter climate, both for the agriculture-supporting precipitation they bring to the region and for the associated isolated extreme events that can induce devastating flash flooding. Here, WD behaviour and impacts are characterised in 23 CMIP5 historical simulations and compared with reanalysis and observations. It is found that WD frequency has a strong relationship with model resolution: higher resolution models produce significantly more WDs, and a disproportionately high fraction of extreme events. Exploring metrics of jet strength and shape, we find that the most probable cause of this relationship is that the jet is wider in models with coarser resolution, and therefore the northern edge in which WDs are spun up sits too far north of India. The frequency of WDs in both winter and summer is found to be overestimated by most models, and thus the winter frequency of WDs estimated from the multi-model mean (30 winter−1) is above the reanalysis mean (26 winter−1). In this case, the error cannot be adequately explained by local jet position and strength. Instead, we show that it is linked with a positive bias in upstream mid-tropospheric baroclinicity. Despite a positive winter precipitation bias in CMIP5 models over most of India and Pakistan and a dry bias in the western Himalaya, the fraction of winter precipitation for which WDs are responsible is accurately represented. Using partial correlation, it is shown that the overestimation in WD frequency is the largest contributor to this bias, with a secondary, spatially heterogeneous contribution coming from the overestimation of WD intensity
Recommended from our members
Can climate models capture the structure of extratropical cyclones?
Composites of wind speeds, equivalent potential temperature, mean sea level pressure, vertical velocity, and relative humidity have been produced for the 100 most intense extratropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere winter for the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and the high resolution global environment model (HiGEM). Features of conceptual models of cyclone structure—the warm conveyor belt, cold conveyor belt, and dry intrusion—have been identified in the composites from ERA-40 and compared to HiGEM. Such features can be identified in the composite fields despite the smoothing that occurs in the compositing process. The surface features and the three-dimensional structure of the cyclones in HiGEM compare very well with those from ERA-40. The warm conveyor belt is identified in the temperature and wind fields as a mass of warm air undergoing moist isentropic uplift and is very similar in ERA-40 and HiGEM. The rate of ascent is lower in HiGEM, associated with a shallower slope of the moist isentropes in the warm sector. There are also differences in the relative humidity fields in the warm conveyor belt. In ERA-40, the high values of relative humidity are strongly associated with the moist isentropic uplift, whereas in HiGEM these are not so strongly associated. The cold conveyor belt is identified as rearward flowing air that undercuts the warm conveyor belt and produces a low-level jet, and is very similar in HiGEM and ERA-40. The dry intrusion is identified in the 500-hPa vertical velocity and relative humidity. The structure of the dry intrusion compares well between HiGEM and ERA-40 but the descent is weaker in HiGEM because of weaker along-isentrope flow behind the composite cyclone. HiGEM’s ability to represent the key features of extratropical cyclone structure can give confidence in future predictions from this model
Recommended from our members
Large-scale and synoptic meteorology in the south-east Pacific during the observations campaign VOCALS-REx in austral Spring 2008
We present a descriptive overview of the meteorology in the south eastern subtropical Pacific (SEP) during the VOCALS-REx intensive observations campaign which was carried out between October and November 2008. Mainly based on data from operational analyses, forecasts, reanalysis, and satellite observations, we focus on spatio-temporal scales from synoptic to planetary. A climatological context is given within which the specific conditions observed during the campaign are placed, with particular reference to the relationships between the large-scale and the regional circulations. The mean circulations associated with the diurnal breeze systems are also discussed. We then provide a summary of the day-to-day synoptic-scale circulation, air-parcel trajectories, and cloud cover in the SEP during VOCALS-REx. Three meteorologically distinct periods of time are identified and the large-scale causes for their different character are discussed. The first period was characterised by significant variability associated with synoptic-scale systems interesting the SEP; while the two subsequent phases were affected by planetary-scale disturbances with a slower evolution. The changes between initial and later periods can be partly explained from the regular march of the annual cycle, but contributions from subseasonal variability and its teleconnections were important. Across the whole of the two months under consideration we find a significant correlation between the depth of the inversion-capped marine boundary layer (MBL) and the amount of low cloud in the area of study. We discuss this correlation and argue that at least as a crude approximation a typical scaling may be applied relating MBL and cloud properties with the large-scale parameters of SSTs and tropospheric temperatures. These results are consistent with previously found empirical relationships involving lower-tropospheric stability
Recommended from our members
Rossby wave breaking, the upper level jet, and serial clustering of extratropical cyclones in western Europe
Winter 2013/14 was the stormiest on record for the UK and was characterized by recurrent clustering of extratropical cyclones. This clustering was associated with a strong, straight and persistent North Atlantic jet and was also associated with Rossby wave breaking (RWB) on both flanks, pinning the jet in place. The occurrence of RWB and cyclone clustering is further studied in 36 years of the ERA-Interim Reanalysis. Clustering at 55°N is associated with an extended and anomalously strong eddy-driven jet flanked on both sides by RWB. However, clustering at 65(45)°N has a dominance of RWB to the south (north) of the jet, deflecting the jet northward (southward). A positive correlation was found between clustering and RWB occurrence to the north and south of the jet. However, there is considerable spread in these relationships
Recommended from our members
Extreme daily rainfall in Pakistan and north India: scale-interactions, mechanisms, and precursors
While much of India is used to heavy precipitation and frequent low-pressure systems during the summer
monsoon, towards the northwest and into Pakistan, such events are uncommon. Here, as much as a third of
the annual rainfall is delivered sporadically during the winter monsoon by western disturbances. Such events
of sparse but heavy precipitation in this region of typically mountainous valleys in the north and desert in
the south can be catastrophic, as in the case of the Pakistan floods of July 2010. In this study, we identify
extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in a box approximately covering this region (65â—¦
-78â—¦W, 25â—¦
-38â—¦N) using
the APHRODITE gauge-based precipitation product. The role of the large-scale circulation in causing EPEs
is investigated: it is found that, during winter, they often coexist with an upper-tropospheric Rossby wave
train that has prominent anomalous southerlies over the region of interest. These winter EPEs are also found
to be strongly colocated with incident western disturbances whereas those occurring during the summer are
found to have a less direct relationship. Conversely, summer EPEs are found to have a strong relationship
with tropical lows. A detailed Lagrangian method is used to explore possible sources of moisture for such
events, and suggests that in winter, the moisture is mostly drawn from the Arabian Sea, whereas during the
summer, it comes from along the African coast and the Indian monsoon trough region
Recommended from our members
Cervical, Thoracic, and Spinopelvic Compensation After Proximal Junctional Kyphosis (PJK): Does Location of PJK Matter?
Study Design:Retrospective case series. Objective:Compensatory changes above a proximal junctional kyphosis (PJK) have not been defined. Understanding these mechanisms may help determine optimal level selection when performing revision for PJK. This study investigates how varying PJK location changes proximal spinal alignment. Methods:Patients were grouped by upper instrumented vertebrae (UIV): lower thoracic (LT; T8-L1) or upper thoracic (UT; T1-7). Alignment parameters were compared. Correlation analysis was performed between PJK magnitude and global/cervical alignment. Results:A total of 369 patients were included; mean age of 63 years, body mass index 28, and 81% female, LT (n = 193) versus UT (n = 176). The rate of radiographic PJK was 49%, higher in the LT group (55% vs 42%, P = .01). The UT group displayed significant differences in all cervical radiographic parameters (P < .05) between PJK versus non-PJK patients, while the LT group displayed significant differences in T1S and C2-T3 sagittal vertical axis (SVA) (CTS). In comparing UT versus LT patients, UT had more posterior global alignment (smaller TPA [T1 pelvic angle], SVA, and larger PT [pelvic tilt]) and larger anterior cervical alignment (greater cSVA [cervical SVA], T1S-CL [T1 slope-cervical lordosis] mismatch, CTS) compared to LT. Correlation analysis of PJK magnitude and location demonstrated a correlation with increases in CL, T1S, and CTS in the UT group. In the LT group, PT increased with PJK angle (r = 0.17) and no significant correlations were noted to SVA, cSVA, or T1S-CL. Conclusions:PJK location influences compensation mechanisms of the cervical and thoracic spine. LT PJK results in increased PT and CL with decreased CTS. UT PJK increases CL to counter increases in T1S with continued T1S-CL mismatch and elevated cSVA
Recommended from our members
Systematic winter sea-surface temperature biases in the northern Arabian Sea in HiGEM and the CMIP3 models
Analysis of 20th century simulations of the High resolution Global Environment Model (HiGEM) and the Third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) models shows that most have a cold sea-surface temperature (SST) bias in the northern Arabian Sea during boreal winter. The association between Arabian Sea SST and the South Asian monsoon has been widely studied in observations and models, with winter cold biases known to be detrimental to rainfall simulation during the subsequent monsoon in coupled general circulation models (GCMs). However, the causes of these SST biases are not well understood. Indeed this is one of the first papers to address causes of the cold biases. The models show anomalously strong north-easterly winter monsoon winds and cold air temperatures in north-west India, Pakistan and beyond. This leads to the anomalous advection of cold, dry air over the Arabian Sea. The cold land region is also associated with an anomalously strong meridional surface temperature gradient during winter, contributing to the enhanced low-level convergence and excessive precipitation over the western equatorial Indian Ocean seen in many models
- …