Reply to Comment on "Cosmic rays, carbon dioxide, and climate"

In our analysis [Rahmstorf et al., 2004], we arrived at two main conclusions: the data of Shaviv and Veizer [2003] do not show a significant correlation of cosmic ray flux (CRF) and climate, and the authors' estimate of climate sensitivity to CO2 based on a simple regression analysis is questionable. After careful consideration of Shaviv and Veizer's comment, we want to uphold and reaffirm these conclusions. Concerning the question of correlation, we pointed out that a correlation arose only after several adjustments to the data, including shifting one of the four CRF peaks and stretching the time scale. To calculate statistical significance, we first need to compute the number of independent data points in the CRF and temperature curves being correlated, accounting for their autocorrelation. A standard estimate [Quenouille, 1952] of the number of effective data points is urn:x-wiley:00963941:media:eost14930:eost14930-math-0001 where N is the total number of data points and r1, r2 are the autocorrelations of the two series. For the curves of Shaviv and Veizer [2003], the result is NEFF = 4.8. This is consistent with the fact that these are smooth curves with four humps, and with the fact that for CRF the position of the four peaks is determined by four spiral arm crossings or four meteorite clusters, respectively; that is, by four independent data points. The number of points that enter the calculation of statistical significance of a linear correlation is (NEFF− 2), since any curves based on only two points show perfect correlation; at least three independent points are needed for a meaningful result

Where to Find 1.5 Million Yr Old Ice for the IPICS Oldest Ice Ice Core

Abstract. The recovery of a 1.5 million yr long ice core from Antarctica represents a keystone of our understanding of Quaternary climate, the progression of glaciation over this time period and the role of greenhouse gas cycles in this pro- gression. Here we tackle the question of where such ice may still be found in the Antarctic ice sheet. We can show that such old ice is most likely to exist in the plateau area of the East Antarctic ice sheet (EAIS) without stratigraphic distur- bance and should be able to be recovered after careful pre- site selection studies. Based on a simple ice and heat flow model and glaciological observations, we conclude that po- sitions in the vicinity of major domes and saddle position on the East Antarctic Plateau will most likely have such old ice in store and represent the best study areas for dedicated reconnaissance studies in the near future. In contrast to pre- vious ice core drill site selections, however, we strongly sug- gest significantly reduced ice thickness to avoid bottom melt- ing. For example for the geothermal heat flux and accumu- lation conditions at Dome C, an ice thickness lower than but close to about 2500 m would be required to find 1.5 Myr old ice (i.e., more than 700m less than at the current EPICA Dome C drill site). Within this constraint, the resolution of an Oldest-Ice record and the distance of such old ice to the bedrock should be maximized to avoid ice flow disturbances, for example, by finding locations with minimum geothermal heat flux. As the geothermal heat flux is largely unknown for the EAIS, this parameter has to be carefully determined be- forehand. In addition, detailed bedrock topography and ice flow history has to be reconstructed for candidates of an Oldest-Ice ice coring site. Finally, we argue strongly for rapid access drilling before any full, deep ice coring activity com- mences to bring datable samples to the surface and to allow an age check of the oldest ice

Kinetic Fractionation of Gases by Deep Air Convection in Polar Firn

A previously unrecognized type of gas fractiona- tion occurs in firn air columns subjected to intense convec- tion. It is a form of kinetic fractionation that depends on the fact that different gases have different molecular diffusivi- ties. Convective mixing continually disturbs diffusive equi- librium, and gases diffuse back toward diffusive equilibrium under the influence of gravity and thermal gradients. In near- surface firn where convection and diffusion compete as gas transport mechanisms, slow-diffusing gases such as krypton (Kr) and xenon (Xe) are more heavily impacted by convec- tion than fast diffusing gases such as nitrogen (N2) and ar- gon (Ar), and the signals are preserved in deep firn and ice. We show a simple theory that predicts this kinetic effect, and the theory is confirmed by observations using a newly- developed Kr and Xe stable isotope system in air samples from the Megadunes field site on the East Antarctic plateau. Numerical simulations confirm the effect’s magnitude at this site. A main purpose of this work is to support the devel- opment of a proxy indicator of past convection in firn, for use in ice-core gas records. To this aim, we also show with the simulations that the magnitude of the kinetic effect is fairly insensitive to the exact profile of convective strength, if the overall thickness of the convective zone is kept constant. These results suggest that it may be feasible to test for the existence of an extremely deep (∼30–40 m) convective zone, which has been hypothesized for glacial maxima, by future ice-core measurements

Can modern infrared analyzers replace gas chromatography to measure anesthetic vapor concentrations?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Gas chromatography (GC) has often been considered the most accurate method to measure the concentration of inhaled anesthetic vapors. However, infrared (IR) gas analysis has become the clinically preferred monitoring technique because it provides continuous data, is less expensive and more practical, and is readily available. We examined the accuracy of a modern IR analyzer (M-CAiOV compact gas IR analyzer (General Electric, Helsinki, Finland) by comparing its performance with GC.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>To examine linearity, we analyzed 3 different concentrations of 3 different agents in O₂: 0.3, 0.7, and 1.2% isoflurane; 0.5, 1, and 2% sevoflurane; and 1, 3, and 6% desflurane. To examine the effect of carrier gas composition, we prepared mixtures of 1% isoflurane, 1 or 2% sevoflurane, or 6% desflurane in 100% O₂(= O₂group); 30%O₂+ 70%N₂O (= N₂O group), 28%O₂+ 66%N₂O + 5%CO₂(= CO₂group), or air. To examine consistency between analyzers, four different M-CAiOV analyzers were tested.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The IR analyzer response in O₂is linear over the concentration range studied: IR isoflurane % = -0.0256 + (1.006 * GC %), R = 0.998; IR sevoflurane % = -0.008 + (0.946 * GC %), R = 0.993; and IR desflurane % = 0.256 + (0.919 * GC %), R = 0.998. The deviation from GC calculated as (100*(IR-GC)/GC), in %) ranged from -11 to 11% for the medium and higher concentrations, and from -20 to +20% for the lowest concentrations. No carrier gas effect could be detected. Individual modules differed in their accuracy (p = 0.004), with differences between analyzers mounting up to 12% of the medium and highest concentrations and up to 25% of the lowest agent concentrations.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>M-CAiOV compact gas IR analyzers are well compensated for carrier gas cross-sensitivity and are linear over the range of concentrations studied. IR and GC cannot be used interchangeably, because the deviations between GC and IR mount up to ± 20%, and because individual analyzers differ unpredictably in their performance.</p

Tracer Applications of Noble Gas Radionuclides in the Geosciences

The noble gas radionuclides, including 81Kr (half-life = 229,000 yr), 85Kr (11 yr), and 39Ar (269 yr), possess nearly ideal chemical and physical properties for studies of earth and environmental processes. Recent advances in Atom Trap Trace Analysis (ATTA), a laser-based atom counting method, have enabled routine measurements of the radiokrypton isotopes, as well as the demonstration of the ability to measure 39Ar in environmental samples. Here we provide an overview of the ATTA technique, and a survey of recent progress made in several laboratories worldwide. We review the application of noble gas radionuclides in the geosciences and discuss how ATTA can help advance these fields, specifically determination of groundwater residence times using 81Kr, 85Kr, and 39Ar; dating old glacial ice using 81Kr; and an 39Ar survey of the main water masses of the oceans, to study circulation pathways and estimate mean residence times. Other scientific questions involving deeper circulation of fluids in the Earth's crust and mantle also are within the scope of future applications. We conclude that the geoscience community would greatly benefit from an ATTA facility dedicated to this field, with instrumentation for routine measurements, as well as for research on further development of ATTA methods

A 60 yr record of atmospheric carbon monoxide reconstructed from Greenland firn air

We present the first reconstruction of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) high latitude atmospheric carbon monoxide (CO) mole fraction from Greenland firn air. Firn air samples were collected at three deep ice core sites in Greenland (NGRIP in 2001, Summit in 2006 and NEEM in 2008). CO records from the three sites agree well with each other as well as with recent atmospheric measurements, indicating that CO is well preserved in the firn at these sites. CO atmospheric history was reconstructed back to the year 1950 from the measurements using a combination of two forward models of gas transport in firn and an inverse model. The reconstructed history suggests that Arctic CO in 1950 was 140–150 nmol mol-1, which is higher than today's values. CO mole fractions rose by 10–15 nmol mol-1 from 1950 to the 1970s and peaked in the 1970s or early 1980s, followed by a ˜ 30 nmol mol-1 decline to today's levels. We compare the CO history with the atmospheric histories of methane, light hydrocarbons, molecular hydrogen, CO stable isotopes and hydroxyl radicals (OH), as well as with published CO emission inventories and results of a historical run from a chemistry-transport model. We find that the reconstructed Greenland CO history cannot be reconciled with available emission inventories unless unrealistically large changes in OH are assumed. We argue that the available CO emission inventories strongly underestimate historical NH emissions, and fail to capture the emission decline starting in the late 1970s, which was most likely due to reduced emissions from road transportation in North America and Europe

Controls on Millennial‐Scale Atmospheric CO2 Variability During the Last Glacial Period

Changes in atmospheric CO2 on millennial‐to‐centennial timescales are key components of past climate variability during the last glacial and deglacial periods (70‐10ka) yet the sources and mechanisms responsible for the CO2 fluctuations remain largely obscure. Here we report the 13C/12C ratio of atmospheric CO2 during a key interval of the last glacial period at sub‐millennial resolution, with coeval histories of atmospheric CO2, CH4 and N2O concentrations. The carbon isotope data suggest that the millennial‐scale CO2 variability in MIS3 is driven largely by changes in the organic carbon cycle, most likely by sequestration of respired carbon in the deep ocean. Centennial‐scale CO2 variations, distinguished by carbon isotope signatures, are associated with both abrupt hydrological change in the tropics (e.g. Heinrich Events) and rapid increases in northern hemisphere temperature (DO events). These events can be linked to modes of variability during the last deglaciation, thus suggesting that drivers of millennial and centennial CO2 variability during both periods are intimately linked to abrupt climate variability.National Science Foundatio

Controls on the movement and composition of firn air at the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide

We sampled interstitial air from the perennial snowpack (firn) at a site near the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide (WAIS-D) and analyzed the air samples for a wide variety of gas species and their isotopes. We find limited convective influence (1.4–5.2 m, depending on detection method) in the shallow firn, gravitational enrichment of heavy species throughout the diffusive column in general agreement with theoretical expectations, a ~10 m thick lock-in zone beginning at ~67 m, and a total firn thickness consistent with predictions of Kaspers et al. (2004). Our modeling work shows that the air has an age spread (spectral width) of 4.8 yr for CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; at the firn-ice transition. We also find that advection of firn air due to the 22 cm yr&lt;sup&gt;&amp;minus;1&lt;/sup&gt; ice-equivalent accumulation rate has a minor impact on firn air composition, causing changes that are comparable to other modeling uncertainties and intrinsic sample variability. Furthermore, estimates of &amp;Delta;age (the gas age/ice age difference) at WAIS-D appear to be largely unaffected by bubble closure above the lock-in zone. Within the lock-in zone, small gas species and their isotopes show evidence of size-dependent fractionation due to permeation through the ice lattice with a size threshold of 0.36 nm, as at other sites. We also see an unequivocal and unprecedented signal of oxygen isotope fractionation within the lock-in zone, which we interpret as the mass-dependent expression of a size-dependent fractionation process