The effect of HIV, behavioural change, and STD syndromic management on STD epidemiology in sub-Saharan Africa: simulations of Uganda

An assessment was made of how the HIV epidemic may have influenced sexually transmitted disease (STD) epidemiology in Uganda, and how HIV would affect the effectiveness of syndromic STD treatment programmes during different stages of the epidemic. The dynamic transmission model STDSIM was used to simulate the spread of HIV and four bacterial and one viral STD. Model parameters were quantified using demographic, behavioural, and epidemiological data from rural Rakai and ot

Uganda’s HIV Prevention Success: The Role of Sexual Behavior Change and the National Response. Commentary on Green et al. (2006)

The paper by Green et al. (vol. 10, this issue

A de novo approach to inferring within-host fitness effects during untreated HIV-1 infection

Funder: Isaac Newton Trust; funder-id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004815Funder: Li Ka Shing Foundation; funder-id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100007421Funder: Division of Intramural Research, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases; funder-id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100006492Funder: Helsingin Yliopisto; funder-id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100007797In the absence of effective antiviral therapy, HIV-1 evolves in response to the within-host environment, of which the immune system is an important aspect. During the earliest stages of infection, this process of evolution is very rapid, driven by a small number of CTL escape mutations. As the infection progresses, immune escape variants evolve under reduced magnitudes of selection, while competition between an increasing number of polymorphic alleles (i.e., clonal interference) makes it difficult to quantify the magnitude of selection acting upon specific variant alleles. To tackle this complex problem, we developed a novel multi-locus inference method to evaluate the role of selection during the chronic stage of within-host infection. We applied this method to targeted sequence data from the p24 and gp41 regions of HIV-1 collected from 34 patients with long-term untreated HIV-1 infection. We identify a broad distribution of beneficial fitness effects during infection, with a small number of variants evolving under strong selection and very many variants evolving under weaker selection. The uniquely large number of infections analysed granted a previously unparalleled statistical power to identify loci at which selection could be inferred to act with statistical confidence. Our model makes no prior assumptions about the nature of alleles under selection, such that any synonymous or non-synonymous variant may be inferred to evolve under selection. However, the majority of variants inferred with confidence to be under selection were non-synonymous in nature, and in most cases were have previously been associated with either CTL escape in p24 or neutralising antibody escape in gp41. We also identified a putative new CTL escape site (residue 286 in gag), and a region of gp41 (including residues 644, 648, 655 in env) likely to be associated with immune escape. Sites inferred to be under selection in multiple hosts have high within-host and between-host diversity although not all sites with high between-host diversity were inferred to be under selection at the within-host level. Our identification of selection at sites associated with resistance to broadly neutralising antibodies (bNAbs) highlights the need to fully understand the role of selection in untreated individuals when designing bNAb based therapies

Use of injectable hormonal contraception and women’s risk of herpes simplex virus type 2 acquisition: a prospective study of couples in Rakai, Uganda

Background The injectable hormonal contraceptive depo-medroxyprogesterone acetate (DMPA) has been associated with increased risk of HIV acquisition, but fi ndings are inconsistent. Whether DMPA increases the risk of other sexually transmitted viral infections is unknown. We assessed the association between DMPA use and incident herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV2) infection in women. Methods In this prospective study, we enrolled HIV-negative and HSV2-negative women aged 15–49 years whose HIV-negative male partners were concurrently enrolled in a randomised trial of male circumcision in Rakai, Uganda. We excluded women if either they or their male partners HIV seroconverted. The primary outcome was HSV2 seroconversion, assessed annually. The male circumcision trial was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00425984. Findings Between Aug 11, 2003, and July 6, 2006, we enrolled 682 women in this study. We noted HSV2 seroconversions in 70 (10%) women. Incidence was 13·5 per 100 person-years in women consistently using DMPA (nine incident infections per 66·5 person-years), 4·3 per 100 person-years in pregnant women who were not using hormonal contraception (18 incident infections per 423·5 person-years), and 6·6 per 100 person-years in women who were neither pregnant nor using hormonal contraception (35 incident infections per 529·5 person-years). Women consistently using DMPA had an adjusted hazard ratio for HSV2 seroconversion of 2·26 (95% CI 1·09–4·69; p=0·029) compared with women who were neither pregnant nor using hormonal contraception. Of 132 women with HSV2-seropositive partners, seroconversion was 36·4 per 100 person-years in consistent DMPA users (four incident infections per 11 person-years) and 10·7 per 100 person-years in women who were neither pregnant nor using hormonal contraception (11 incident infections per 103 person-years; adjusted hazard ratio 6·23, 95% CI 1·49–26·3; p=0·012). Interpretation Consistent DMPA use might increase risk of HSV2 seroconversion; however, study power was low. These fi ndings should be assessed in larger populations with more frequent follow-up than in this study, and other contraceptive methods should also be assessed. Access to a wide range of highly eff ective contraceptive methods is needed for women, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa

Heterogeneity of HIV incidence : a comparative analysis between fishing communities and in a neighbouring rural general population, Uganda, and implications for HIV control

Objectives To describe HIV heterogeneity in rural Uganda using incidence data collected between January 2012 and December 2014 among fishing cohort (FC) and in an adjacent rural general population cohort (GPC). Methods In the FC, eligible HIV high-risk adults aged 18+ years were enrolled, followed and HIV tested every 3 months. Demographic and sexual behaviour data were also collected. The GPC, approximately 47 km away from the FC, was followed through annual surveys, and sociodemographic and behavioural data collected. A subset of GPC with comparable risk profiles to the FC was selected. We presented sociodemographic and risk profiles and also computed stratified HIV incidence. Cox regression was used to assess factors associated with HIV incidence. Results Overall HIV incidence was higher in the FC than in the ‘high-risk’ GPC, 6.04 and 0.56 per 100 person years at risk, respectively, with a rate ratio (RR) of 10.83 (95% CI 6.11 to 19.76). This was higher among those aged 18–24 years, unmarried and those with more than two sex partners in the past year, RR of 15.44, 22.99 and 19.29, respectively. In the FC, factors associated with high incidence in multivariate analysis were duration in the community and unprotected sex. The factors in the GPC were ethnicity, marital status and duration in the community. Conclusions We have observed a substantial heterogeneity in HIV incidence. The high incidence in fishing communities is contributing greatly to the overall HIV burden in Uganda, and thus urgent combination prevention efforts are needed towards national goal to reduce HIV epidemic