What GHG Concentration Targets are Reachable in this Century?

We offer simulations that help to understand the relationship between GHG emissions and concentrations, and the relative role of long-lived (e.g., CO2) and short-lived (e.g., CH4) emissions. We show that, absent technologies to remove CO2 from the atmosphere, the 350 CO2 ppm target is out of reach in this century, even if all emissions drop to zero almost immediately (i.e. in 2015). A 350 ppm CO2-equivalent target is potentially achievable, but would require CH4 concentrations falling below preindustrial levels, and thus elimination of emissions from human activities such as rice and livestock agriculture. More realistically, even some of the most aggressive targets proposed through 2035 would lead to concentrations (CO2 or CO2-eq) in the 415–450 ppm range. This is only feasible if after 2035 emissions continued a downward path toward zero. Only in these cases would the temperature target of no more than 2 °C above preindustrial be achieved, and only after peaking above that level before declining.The MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) and its economic component used in the analysis, the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, are supported by a consortium of government, industry, and foundation sponsors of the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, including U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science (DE-FG02-94ER61937). (For a complete list of sponsors, see: http://globalchange.mit.edu/sponsors/all)

The Influence on Climate Change of Differing Scenarios for Future Development Analyzed Using the MIT Integrated Global System Model

Abstract and PDF report are also available on the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://globalchange.mit.edu/).A wide variety of scenarios for future development have played significant roles in climate policy discussions. This paper presents projections of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, sea level rise due to thermal expansion and glacial melt, oceanic acidity, and global mean temperature increases computed with the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM) using scenarios for 21st century emissions developed by three different groups: intergovernmental (represented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), government (represented by the U.S. government Climate Change Science Program) and industry (represented by Royal Dutch Shell plc). In all these scenarios the climate system undergoes substantial changes. By 2100, the CO2 concentration ranges from 470 to 1020 ppm compared to a 2000 level of 365 ppm, the CO2-equivalent concentration of all greenhouse gases ranges from 550 to 1780 ppm in comparison to a 2000 level of 415 ppm, sea level rises by 24 to 56 cm relative to 2000 due to thermal expansion and glacial melt, oceanic acidity changes from a current pH of around 8 to a range from 7.63 to 7.91. The global mean temperature increases by 1.8 to 7.0 degrees C relative to 2000.The IGSM model used here is supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. National Science Foundation, U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, U.S. National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration and the Industry and Foundation Sponsors of the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change

Myxidium shedkoae Sokolov, 2013 (Myxozoa: Myxidiidae), a parasite of the gallbladder of Perccottus glenii Dybowski, 1877 (Actinoptrygii: Odontobutidae): Supplementary data on morphology and phylogenetic position based on 18s rDNA sequence analysis

This paper is the first report on the molecular characterisation of myxozoan parasites from the odontobutid fish Chinese (Amur) sleeper (Perccottus glenii Dybowski, 1877). The authors determined the partial 18S rDNA sequence of Myxidium shedkoae Sokolov, 2013 from the gallbladder of the fish. Phylogenies reconstructed using maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference analysis revealed that M. shedkoae belongs to the hepatic biliary group of myxozoans (after Kristmundsson and Freeman, 2013) as a member of the clade consisting of Zschokkella sp. KLT-2014, Myxidium truttae and Zschokkella nova. Some new morphological features of the parasite are also presented

El desarrollo de la institución del nombramiento para los rangos científicos de la facultad de enseñanza científica en la Federación de Rusia

Taking into account, that science and education in Russia are related to certain priority areas designated by the State and the social development policy, this article is focused on the issues related to the modernization of the academic degrees’ system in Russia. This system is characterized by multiple imperfections that particularly influence the motivation of high-education teaching personnel. In this paper, the authors study several recent problems encountered in the current legal regulation governing the attribution of academic degrees in Russia while observing its inconsistencies and legal contradictions. The paper also contains an analysis of suggested proposals that could be added to the current legal texts, regulating the institution responsible for academic degree attribution. In general, the authors suggest a conceptual approach to modernize the mechanisms of normative legal regulation which organizes the attribution of academic ranks. It is suggested to improve the evaluation system of scientific publications used to evaluate applicants for an academic degree, and to establish a transition towards a point-based evaluation system based on the quality of scientific and educational work. The thesis formulated expresses the need to develop a system of social and material guarantees for the benefit of scientific and educational staff and the implementation of effective means to motivate their educational and research activity.Considerando que a educação e a ciência na Rússia se relacionam com o número de direções prioritárias da política estatal e do desenvolvimento da comunidade, este artigo se concentra na discussão da questão da modernização do sistema de fileiras científicas na Rússia. Esse sistema é caracterizado pela imperfeição, o que influencia particularmente a motivação do corpo docente do ensino superior na atividade educacional. Os autores consideram os problemas mais reais da condição atual de reglamentação legal da nomeação para postos científicos na Rússia e fazem o monitoramento referente à inconsistência e contradições legais. O artigo contém a análise da série de sugestões de alterações aos atos jurídicos vigentes, regulamentando a instituição da nomeação para as fileiras científicas. Os autores geralmente abordam a questão da formação da abordagem conceitual para a modernização do mecanismo de regulamentação legal da nomeação de postos científicos e sugerem a melhoria do sistema de avaliação das atividades de publicação de candidatos à nomeação para postos científicos e sua transformação através da contabilidade da qualidade das realizações científicas e de ensino usando o sistema de pontos. O artigo traz à tese a necessidade de desenvolvimento do sistema de garantias sociais e materiais para o ensino científico-docente e científico e a implementação de instrumentos eficientes de estímulo à atividade de ensino e pesquisa.  Teniendo en cuenta que la educación y la ciencia en Rusia se relacionan con el número de direcciones prioritarias de la política estatal y el desarrollo comunitario, este artículo se centra en la discusión sobre el tema de la modernización del sistema de filas científicas en Rusia. Este sistema se caracteriza por la imperfección, lo que influye particularmente en la motivación del personal docente de educación superior en la actividad educativa. Los autores consideran los problemas más actuales de la condición actual de la reglamentación legal del nombramiento a filas científicas en Rusia y realizan el monitoreo sobre la inconsistencia y las contradicciones legales. El artículo contiene el análisis de la serie de sugerencias para las enmiendas a los actos jurídicos vigentes, que regulan la institución de la designación a filas científicas. Los autores generalmente cubren el tema de la formación del enfoque conceptual para la modernización del mecanismo de reglamentación legal de la designación de rangos científicos y sugieren la mejora del sistema de evaluación de las actividades de publicación de los candidatos a la designación de rangos científicos, y su transformación. a través de la contabilidad de la calidad de los logros científicos y docentes utilizando el sistema de puntos El artículo lleva a la tesis de la necesidad del desarrollo del sistema de garantías sociales y materiales para la facultad científica-docente y científica y la implementación de instrumentos eficientes para estimular su actividad docente e investigadora

ALGORITHM DESIGN FOR SHIP’S STEERING WITH SPECIFIED LIMITATIONS UNDER VARIOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS

The problems of developing the risk assessment methods to estimate the level of safety of the vessel under the current conditions on a planned route before staring the pilotage as well as to make the decision on the beginning or suspension of pilotage in order to increase the level of navigational safety are discussed in the paper. Moreover, the application of the research results will reduce the affect of the human factor in decision-making in tasks related to the sea-going vessel’s operation. The developed method for the quantitative assessment of navigational risks will improve the safety of ship’s pilotage. It can also be applied in the decision-making support systems for the navigator in case of collision avoidance actions. The research results presented in this paper can be used to create automatic control systems

Integrated Economic and Climate Projections for Impact Assessment

We designed scenarios for impact assessment that explicitly address policy choices and uncertainty in climate response. Economic projections and the resulting greenhouse gas emissions for the “no climate policy” scenario and two stabilization scenarios: at 4.5 W/m2 and 3.7 W/m2 by 2100 are provided. They can be used for a broader climate impact assessment for the US and other regions, with the goal of making it possible to provide a more consistent picture of climate impacts, and how those impacts depend on uncertainty in climate system response and policy choices. The long-term risks, beyond 2050, of climate change can be strongly influenced by policy choices. In the nearer term, the climate we will observe is hard to influence with policy, and what we actually see will be strongly influenced by natural variability and the earth system response to existing greenhouse gases. In the end, the nature of the system is that a strong effect of policy, especially directed toward long-lived GHGs, will lag by 30 to 40 years its implementation.This work was partially funded by the US Environmental Protection Agency under Cooperative Agreement #XA-83600001. The Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) and its economic component, the MIT Emissions Predictions and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, used in this 12analysis is supported by a consortium of government, industry, and foundation sponsors of the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change. For a complete list of sponsors, see: http://globalchange.mit.edu. The 20th Century Reanalysis V2 data was provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/