Estimating a Risky Term Structure of Uruguayan Sovereign Bonds.

Based on a joint three – factor a¢ ne model, we estimate the term structure of interest rates and default spreads for Uruguay using the reduced - form approach developed by Du¢ e and Singleton. We …nd that Uruguayan average term structure was negatively sloped between 1997 and 2003, as indicated by previous empirical evidence for low –quality debtors. Surprisingly, Uruguayan average yield curve was also negatively sloped between 1997 and 2001, when the country’s foreign –currency denominated debt was considered investment grade by the leading rating agencies. We also …nd that the estimated Uruguayan default spread is able to capture the behavior and dynamics of a more traditional country risk benchmark such as the “Uruguayan Bond Index” (UBI), with observations on a single Uruguayan bond. Finally, we …nd that regional, international and local …nancial crises cause parallel shifts in the Uruguayan yield curve, with higher increases in short –term rates, and that the banking and debt crises experienced by the country in 2002 had the biggest e¤ects on the average Uruguayan term structure.default risk; term structure; reduced-form model; default spread

Bankruptcy Prediction: A Comparison of Some Statistical and Machine Learning Techniques

We are interested in forecasting bankruptcies in a probabilistic way. Specifically, we compare the classification performance of several statistical and machine-learning techniques, namely discriminant analysis (Altman's Z-score), logistic regression, least-squares support vector machines and different instances of Gaussian processes (GP's) -that is GP's classifiers, Bayesian Fisher discriminant and Warped GP's. Our contribution to the field of computational finance is to introduce GP's as a potentially competitive probabilistic framework for bankruptcy prediction. Data from the repository of information of the US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation is used to test the predictions.Bankruptcy prediction, Artificial intelligence, Supervised learning, Gaussian processes, Z-score.

Música y canción en la tradición islámica.

Sin resume

Uses of a Myth: al-Andalus

In the last two decades, the Spanish press treatment of the Muslim world reflects a change of tone from unsympathetic to enthusiastic, although the information is still marred by confusion and ignorance. This change of attitude has occurred in other Western countries as well, and it is due in part to immigration trends, control over oil resources, and the relativism of official discourses towards the Third World. In the case of Spain, however, there is an additional internal element at play: the mass-media reinvention of a mythical al-Andalus as a tolerant and pluralistic society. This idealized interpretation of seven centuries of Muslim presence in the Iberian Peninsula is fraught with ignorance and distortion of the historical record but is not new. The mystification of al-Andalus has its precedent in romantic accounts that saw in “Muslim Spain” a differential fact that reinforced the exotic image of the country. It can be attributed also to the strategy to “hispanicize” al-Andalus employed by Arabists and historians to make the subject matter appealing to unsympathetic Spanish audiences conditioned by the myth of the Reconquest. Intended or not, the manipulation of the myth of al-Andalus as a historical fact has ideological and political implications that demand an objective and balanced consideration

Estudio morfológico de una Liebre artica (L. timidus) hallada en Salvada, Alava

Este trabajo refleja las investigaciones llevadas a cabo con un ejemplar de Lepus timidus varronis hallado en la Sierra de Salvada (Alava). Se comparan sus restos con los diferentes trabajos de los autores peninsulares y europeos que han tratado el tema. Se finaliza con unas consideraciones acera de estos géneros y su problemática, los yacimientos peninsulares y europeos donde han aparecido y los niveles cronológicos donde han sido fechadosLan honek Arabako Salvada Mendizerran aurkitutako Lepus timidus varronis ale bati buruz egindako ikerketak erakusten ditu. Bere aztarnak Penintsula eta Europako beste egileek gai honi buruz egindako lan ezberdinekon parekatzen dira. Jenero hauek eta bere problematikari buruz, baita penintsula eta Europako aztarnategiak eta bere maila kronologikoari buruz gogopen batzuekin ere amaitzen daLe travail contient les recherhes effectuées avec un exemplaire de Lepus timidus varronis trouvé dans la Sierra de Salvada (Alava). On fait la comparison entre ses restes et les différents des auteurs nationaux et européens qui ont travaillé sur ce théme. On finit avec quelques considérations sur ces genres et lem problématique, les gisements de la péninsule ibérique et de l'Europe on ils ont été trovés el dates des niveaux chronologique