Modeling land-climate coupling in Europe: Impact of land surface representation on climate variability and extremes

Land-climate coupling has been shown to be important for European summer climate variability and extreme events. However, the sensitivity of these feedbacks to land surface model (LSM) choice has been little investigated up to now. In this study, we assess the impact of the LSM on the simulated climate variability in a regional climate model (RCM). The experiments were conducted with the COSMO-CLM2RCM. COSMO-CLM2can be run with two alternative LSMs, the 2nd-generation LSM TERRA_ML or the more sophisticated 3rd-generation LSM Community Land Model (CLM3.5). The analyzed simulations include control and sensitivity experiments with prescribed soil moisture (dry or wet). Using CLM3.5 instead of TERRA_ML improves the simulated temperature variability by alleviating an overestimation of temperature inter-annual variability in the RCM. Also, the representation of the probability density functions of daily maximum summer temperature is improved when using the more advanced LSM. The reduced climate variability is linked to a larger ground heat flux and smaller variability in soil moisture and short-wave radiation. The latter effect results from the coupling of the LSM to the atmospheric module. In addition, using CLM3.5 reduces the sensitivity of COSMO-CLM2to extreme soil moisture conditions. An analysis assessing the relationship between the standard precipitation index and the subsequent number of hot days in summer reveals a better representation of this relationship using CLM3.5. Hence, we find that biases in climate variability and extremes can be reduced and the representation of land-climate coupling can be improved with the use of the more sophisticated LSM

European drought trends

Recent climate projections suggest pronounced changes in European drought frequency. In the north, increased precipitation volumes are likely to reduce drought occurrence, whereas more frequent droughts are expected for southern Europe. To assess whether this pattern of changes in drought frequency can already be identified for the past decades, we analyse trends in a recently developed pan-European drought climatology that is based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The index is derived on multiple time scales, ranging from 1 to 36 months, which allows the assessment of trends in both short term and multi-year droughts. Trends are quantified using the Theil-Sen trend estimator combined with an extension of the Mann–Kendal test (p < 0.05) that accounts for serial correlation. Field significance is assessed on the basis of techniques that control the false discovery rate in a multiple testing setting. The trend analysis indicates that changes in drought frequency are more pronounced on time scales of one year and longer. The analysis also reveals that there has been a tendency for decreased drought frequency in northern Europe in the past decades, whereas droughts have likely become more frequent in selected southern regions

Can climate‐effective land management reduce regional warming?

Limiting global warming to well below 2°C is an imminent challenge for humanity. However, even if this global target can be met, some regions are still likely to experience substantial warming relative to others. Using idealized global climate simulations, we examine the potential of land management options in affecting regional climate, with a focus on crop albedo enhancement and irrigation (climate-effective land management). The implementation is performed over all crop regions globally to provide an upper bound. We find that the implementation of both crop albedo enhancement and irrigation can reduce hot temperature extremes by more than 2°C in North America, Eurasia, and India over the 21st century relative to a scenario without management application. The efficacy of crop albedo enhancement scales with the magnitude, where a cooling response exceeding 0.5°C for hot temperature extremes was achieved with a large (i.e., ≥0.08) change in crop albedo. Regional differences were attributed to the surface energy balance response with temperature changes mostly explained by latent heat flux changes for irrigation and net shortwave radiation changes for crop albedo enhancement. However, limitations do exist, where we identify warming over the winter months when climate-effective land management is temporarily suspended. This was associated with persistent cloud cover that enhances longwave warming. It cannot be confirmed if the magnitude of this feedback is reproducible in other climate models. Our results overall demonstrate that regional warming of hot extremes in our climate model can be partially mitigated when using an idealized treatment of climate-effective land management

Managing housing needs in post conflict housing reconstruction in Sri Lanka: gaps versus recommendations

Addressing housing needs in post conflict housing reconstruction leads to successful housing reconstruction. As part of a study of investigating how the housing needs can be effectively addressed in post conflict housing reconstruction, this paper identifies the gaps in managing housing needs in post conflict housing reconstruction within the context of Sri Lanka and presents the recommendations to minimise such gaps. Data was collected through un-structured interviews conducted with 37 participants, comprising policy makers, practitioners, academics and beneficiaries who engaged in post conflict housing reconstruction in Sri Lanka. Gaps were mainly found in conflict sensitivity, measures related to physical housing, performance of implementing agencies, policy and practice issues. On the job training, application of ‘do no harm’ principles, enhanced beneficiary participation, enhanced accountability, effective monitoring, enhanced knowledge sharing, adequate drinking water facilities, irrigation development and initiatives for material manufacturing were suggested as recommendations to minimise these gaps. Identification of gaps in managing housing needs in post conflict housing reconstruction and recommendations to minimise them inform policy makers to address the housing needs effectively through incorporating these aspects into the related policies. This in turn enhances the sustainability in housing development after conflicts

Lipoteichoic acid from an Enterococcus faecalis clinical strain promotes TNF-α expression through the NF-κB and p38 MAPK signaling pathways in differentiated THP-1 macrophages

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Observed trends in global indicators of mean and extreme streamflow

Published online 23 JAN 2019This study investigates global changes in indicators of mean and extreme streamflow. The assessment is based on the Global Streamflow Indices and Metadata archive and focuses on time series of the annual minimum, the 10th, 50th, and 90th percentiles, the annual mean, and the annual maximum of daily streamflow. Trends are estimated using the Sen‐Theil slope, and the significance of mean regional trends is established through bootstrapping. Changes in the indices are often regionally consistent, showing that the entire flow distribution is moving either upward or downward. In addition, the analysis confirms the complex nature of hydrological change where drying in some regions (e.g., in the Mediterranean) is contrasted by wetting in other regions (e.g., North Asia). Observed changes are discussed in the context of previous results and with respect to model estimates of the impacts of anthropogenic climate change and human water management.L. Gudmundsson, M. Leonard, H. X. Do, S. Westra, and S. I. Seneviratn

Escaping High Viral Load Exhaustion: CD8 Cells with Altered Tetramer Binding in Chronic Hepatitis B Virus Infection

Deletion, anergy, and a spectrum of functional impairments can affect virus-specific CD8 cells in chronic viral infections. Here we characterize a low frequency population of CD8 cells present in chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection which survive in the face of a high quantity of viral antigen. Although they do not appear to exert immunological pressure in vivo, these CD8 cells are not classically “tolerant” since they proliferate, lyse, and produce antiviral cytokines in vitro. They are characterized by altered HLA/peptide tetramer reactivity, which is not explained by TCR down-regulation or reduced functional avidity and which can be reversed with repetitive stimulation. CD8 cells with altered tetramer binding appear to have a specificity restricted to envelope antigen and not to other HBV antigens, suggesting that mechanisms of CD8 cell dysfunction are differentially regulated according to the antigenic form and presentation of individual viral antigens

Health services research into postnatal depression : results from a preliminary cross-cultural study

Background: Little is known about the availability and uptake of health and welfare services by women with postnatal depression in different countries. Aims: Within the context of a cross- cultural research study, to develop and test methods for undertaking quantitative health services research in postnatal depression. Method: Interviews with service planners and the collation of key health indicators were used to obtain a profile of service availability and provision. A service use questionnaire was developed and administered to a pilot sample in a number of European study centres. Results: Marked differences in service access and use were observed between the centres, including postnatal nursing care and contacts with primary care services.Rates of use of specialist services were generally low.Common barriers to access to care included perceived service quality and responsiveness. On the basis of the pilot work, a postnatal depression version of the Service Receipt Inventory was revised and finalised. Conclusions: This preliminary study demonstrated the methodological feasibility of describing and quantifying service use, highlighted the varied and often limited use of care in this population, and indicated the need for an improved understanding of the resource needs and implications of postnatal depression