Association of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) components with mortality

Background Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) is a practical method to describe and quantify the presence and severity of organ system dysfunctions and failures. Some proposals suggest that SOFA could be employed as an endpoint in trials. To justify this, all SOFA component scores should reflect organ dysfunctions of comparable severity. We aimed to investigate whether the associations of different SOFA components with in-hospital mortality are comparable. Methods We performed a study based on nationwide register data on adult patients admitted to 26 Finnish intensive care units (ICUs) during 2012-2015. We determined the SOFA score as the maximum score in the first 24 hours after ICU admission. We defined organ failure (OF) as an organ-specific SOFA score of three or higher. We evaluated the association of different SOFA component scores with mortality. Results Our study population comprised 63,756 ICU patients. Overall hospital mortality was 10.7%. In-hospital mortality was 22.5% for patients with respiratory failure, 34.8% for those with coagulation failure, 40.1% for those with hepatic failure, 14.9% for those with cardiovascular failure, 26.9% for those with neurologic failure and 34.6% for the patients with renal failure. Among patients with comparable total SOFA scores, the risk of death was lower in patients with cardiovascular OF compared with patients with other OFs. Conclusions All SOFA components are associated with mortality, but their weights are not comparable. High scores of other organ systems mean a higher risk of death than high cardiovascular scores. The scoring of cardiovascular dysfunction needs to be updated.Peer reviewe

Inflammatory response to surgical trauma in patients with minilaparotomy cholecystectomy versus laparoscopic cholecystectomy: a randomised multicentre study

Peer reviewe

Mortality prediction in intensive care units including premorbid functional status improved performance and internal validity

Objective: Prognostic models are key for benchmarking intensive care units (ICUs). They require up-to-date predictors and should report transportability properties for reliable predictions. We developed and validated an in-hospital mortality risk prediction model to facilitate benchmarking, quality assurance, and health economics evaluation. Study Design and Setting: We retrieved data from the database of an international (Finland, Estonia, Switzerland) multicenter ICU cohort study from 2015 to 2017. We used a hierarchical logistic regression model that included age, a modified Simplified Acute Physiology Score-II, admission type, premorbid functional status, and diagnosis as grouping variable. We used pooled and meta-analytic cross-validation approaches to assess temporal and geographical transportability. Results: We included 61,224 patients treated in the ICU (hospital mortality 10.6%). The developed prediction model had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.886, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.882-0.890; a calibration slope 1.01, 95% CI (0.99-1.03); a mean calibration -0.004, 95% CI (-0.035 to 0.027). Although the model showed very good internal validity and geographic discrimination transportability, we found substantial heterogeneity of performance measures between ICUs (I-squared: 53.4-84.7%). Conclusion: A novel framework evaluating the performance of our prediction model provided key information to judge the validity of our model and its adaptation for future use. (c) 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. This is an open access article under the CC BY license ( http:// creativecommons.org/ licenses/ by/ 4.0/ )Peer reviewe

Variation in severity-adjusted resource use and outcome in intensive care units

Purpose Intensive care patients have increased risk of death and their care is expensive. We investigated whether risk-adjusted mortality and resources used to achieve survivors change over time and if their variation is associated with variables related to intensive care unit (ICU) organization and structure. Methods Data of 207,131 patients treated in 2008-2017 in 21 ICUs in Finland, Estonia and Switzerland were extracted from a benchmarking database. Resource use was measured using ICU length of stay, daily Therapeutic Intervention Scoring System Scores (TISS) and purchasing power parity-adjusted direct costs (2015-2017; 17 ICUs). The ratio of observed to severity-adjusted expected resource use (standardized resource use ratio; SRUR) was calculated. The number of expected survivors and the ratio of observed to expected mortality (standardized mortality ratio; SMR) was based on a mortality prediction model covering 2015-2017. Fourteen a priori variables reflecting structure and organization were used as explanatory variables for SRURs in multivariable models. Results SMR decreased over time, whereas SRUR remained unchanged, except for decreased TISS-based SRUR. Direct costs of one ICU day, TISS score and ICU admission varied between ICUs 2.5-5-fold. Differences between individual ICUs in both SRUR and SMR were up to > 3-fold, and their evolution was highly variable, without clear association between SRUR and SMR. High patient turnover was consistently associated with low SRUR but not with SMR. Conclusion The wide and independent variation in both SMR and SRUR suggests that they should be used together to compare the performance of different ICUs or an individual ICU over time.Peer reviewe

Reticulation pattern without honeycombing on high-resolution CT is associated with the risk of disease progression in interstitial lung diseases

Background: The disease course of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is progressive and occasionally, other types of interstitial lung disease (ILD) may progress similarly to IPF. This study aimed to evaluate risk factors for disease progression within 24 months in patients with various ILDs. Methods: This prospective study obtained 97 patients with a suspected ILD who underwent a transbronchial lung cryobiopsy. The extent of several high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) patterns was assessed. Due to the inclusion criteria the study population presented a low extent of honeycombing and definite usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP) pattern on HRCT suggesting an early stage of ILD. Disease progression within 24 months despite treatment was defined as a relative decline of ≥ 10% in forced vital capacity (FVC), or a relative decline in FVC of ≥ 5% and one of the three additional criteria: (1) a decline in diffusion capacity to carbon monoxide (DLCO) ≥ 15%; (2) increased fibrosis on HRCT; (3) progressive symptoms, or progressive symptoms and increased fibrosis on HRCT. The same definition was utilized in patients with IPF and other ILDs. Risk factors for disease progression were evaluated in a multivariable logistic regression model. Results: Disease progression was revealed in 52% of the patients with ILD, 51% of the patients with IPF, and 53% of the patients with other types of ILD. A high extent of reticulation on HRCT (Odds ratio [OR] 3.11, 95% Confidence interval [CI] 1.21–7.98, P = 0.019) and never smoking (OR 3.11, CI 1.12–8.63, P = 0.029) were associated with disease progression whereas platelet count (OR 2.06 per 100 units increase, CI 0.96–4.45, P = 0.065) did not quite reach statistical significance. Conclusion: Higher extent of reticulation on HRCT and never smoking appeared to associate with the risk of disease progression within 24 months in ILD patients without honeycombing. Approximately half of the patients with ILD revealed disease progression, and similar proportions were observed in patients with IPF and in other types of ILD.publishedVersionPeer reviewe

Review: Population Dynamics of Forest Insects

Watt, A. D., Leather, S. R., Hunter, M. D. & Kidd, N. A. C. (eds.) 1990. Population Dynamics of Forest Insects. 408 pp. - Intercept Ltd. Hampshire. ISBN 0-946707-28-6. Price GBP 40.00