Exchange Rate Convergence in the East African Monetary Union: An Econometric Investigation

The paper initially revisits the definition of convergence in bivariate sense to cater for gradual changes which occur from one point to another and distinguishes between the different levels of convergence including zero mean, conditional deterministic, stochastic, conditional and unconditional stochastic convergence, and re-categories the conditional stochastic convergence and conditional deterministic as being either static or dynamic depending on whether the constant in the convergence equation increases, remains constant or decreases as the convergence progresses, with dynamic convergence occurring when the constant decreases overtime.  This is an expansion of the approach of previous  studies that mainly focused on  three general types of convergence of stochastic, deterministic and zero mean convergence, described by Halket (2005), mainly based on the entire sample being investigated without capturing the gradual changes that occur from one period to another using a rolling approach. This approach captureS the dynamic nature of the stochastic changes which occur before, during, and after the convergence is attained.  After revisiting the above, the study investigated the extent of convergence of the exchange rates for the East African Community using the rolling bivariate cointegration approach, accounting for structural breaks using the Sup LM test.  The motivation was that the EAC member countries for several years have been implementing reforms aimed at attaining macroeconomic convergence as a measure to ensure a successful Monetary Union. Whether it has been attained is an empirical question.  The results revealed limited convergence of the exchange rates, which has serious negative implications for the success of the EA Monetary Union.   This calls for review of the current monetary policies, and macroeconomic policies in general. Keywords: Convergence, Rolling Bivariate Cointegration, Structural Break LM Test,  Exchange Rates,   EAC- Integration JEL Nos. F15, E152, C12, C13, C3

Children referred with lennox-gastaut syndrome in the Western Cape of South Africa

Introduction/Purpose: Lennox-Gastaut Syndrome (LGS) is one of the most common refractory epilepsies of childhood with significant morbidity and mortality. However there is paucity of data of this syndrome in resource limited settings (RLS). We sought to delineate the phenomenology, diagnosis, aetiologies, management and outcomes of children referred with LGS in the Western Cape Province of South Africa. To further identify early clinical markers differentiating LGS from other types of epilepsy. Methods. This retrospective observational cohort study included all children between 1 to < 18 years of age in the neurology database with a referral label of LGS between 2000-2018. The group were critiqued for those who met the diagnostic criteria of LGS. Then were categorized into those with confirmed LGS and remainder were not- LGS. Data of the social demographics, age of seizure onset, etiology, preceding epileptic spasms, and semiology of epilepsy types, management interventions were reviewed to identify key diagnostic indicators to permit early and targeted interventions for children with this epilepsy syndrome. Results; Of 2551 children managed with epilepsy, 110 were suspected at presentation to have LGS of these 66 records were available for assessment. The median (IQR) age in months at presentation was 35(16.0-54.5) with a slight male (37/66) predominance. 43(65%) met the criteria LGS and 23(35%) were not-LGS. 34(52%) had no identifiable cause for their epilepsy whilst a structural and metabolic cause were identified in 25(38%) and 3(5%) respectively. Moderate or severe cognitive impairment was associated with LGS (OR 2.59, p = 0.02 and OR =3.15, p = 0.01) and so were tonic seizures (OR=4.03, p=0.04). The most common diagnoses in the not-LGS group were other types of DEE not meeting the LGS criteria (15%) and uncategorised epileptic syndromes 11%. Conclusion; Over third of the children in this cohort were erroneously referred with LGS early in their course. This has implications for their management and prognostic counselling. Identification of indicators such as tonic seizures and moderate or severe intellectual/cognitive impairment are useful early markers which support a diagnosis of LGS and could be viable for use in our setting

Macroeconomic Convergence in the East African Community: A Multivariate Cointegration Analysis of the Exchange Rates

The EAC member countries have to-date implemented various reforms with the aim of achieving macroeconomic convergence before the on-coming EAST African Monetary Union, however, the extent of convergence to-date is an empirical question that is yet to be answered.  Various researchers have used the Johansen approach to investigate cointegration but have not catered for the gradual changes that occur during the adjustment period.  This study revisited the definition of convergence based on Johansen cointegration approaches to include zero mean, conditional deterministic, stochastic, conditional and unconditional stochastic convergence; and unlike other studies, applied a rolling multivariate cointegration/convergence approach to investigate the extent to which exchange rates in the East African Community (EAC) have converged following macroeconomic reforms.   Rolling Johansen, rolling multivariate Engle and Granger, impulse response and Granger-causality approaches were applied.  The results revealed that existence of cointegration does not necessarily mean complete convergence. Although the exchange rates in the EAC were cointegrated, there was limited convergence and uni-directional causality in most cases.  The shocks arising from Kenya had major effects on the exchange rates for other countries in the region; those from Rwanda affected that for Burundi while shocks arising elsewhere had minimal effects.  To ensure smooth transitions in the monetary union, reforms that can ensure convergence thus stable exchange rates are required. Keywords: Macro-economic convergence, Multivariate rolling cointegration tests, Exchange rates, Granger-causality,   East African Community integration JEL Nos. C32, E52, E61, E63, F1

Viral Diversity and Diversification of Major Non-Structural Genes vif, vpr, vpu, tat exon 1 and rev exon 1 during Primary HIV-1 Subtype C Infection

To assess the level of intra-patient diversity and evolution of HIV-1C non-structural genes in primary infection, viral quasispecies obtained by single genome amplification (SGA) at multiple sampling timepoints up to 500 days post-seroconversion (p/s) were analyzed. The mean intra-patient diversity was 0.11% (95% CI; 0.02 to 0.20) for vif, 0.23% (95% CI; 0.08 to 0.38) for vpr, 0.35% (95% CI; −0.05 to 0.75) for vpu, 0.18% (95% CI; 0.01 to 0.35) for tat exon 1 and 0.30% (95% CI; 0.02 to 0.58) for rev exon 1 during the time period 0 to 90 days p/s. The intra-patient diversity increased gradually in all non-structural genes over the first year of HIV-1 infection, which was evident from the vif mean intra-patient diversity of 0.46% (95% CI; 0.28 to 0.64), vpr 0.44% (95% CI; 0.24 to 0.64), vpu 0.84% (95% CI; 0.55 to 1.13), tat exon 1 0.35% (95% CI; 0.14 to 0.56 ) and rev exon 1 0.42% (95% CI; 0.18 to 0.66) during the time period of 181 to 500 days p/s. There was a statistically significant increase in viral diversity for vif (p = 0.013) and vpu (p = 0.002). No associations between levels of viral diversity within the non-structural genes and HIV-1 RNA load during primary infection were found. The study details the dynamics of the non-structural viral genes during the early stages of HIV-1C infection

Morphological characteristics, bioactive compounds content, and antioxidant activity of different accessions of African eggplant (Solanum anguivi Lam.)

African eggplant (Solanum anguivi Lam.) fruits reportedly exhibit antidiabetic properties, possibly due to the presence of bioactive compounds. This study aimed to assess the bioactive compounds content (BCC) and antioxidant activity (AA) in the fruits of fourteen African eggplant accessions. The relationship between the fruit BCC and AA, and the plant (leaf, stem and fruit) morphological characteristics was determined. Morphological traits for the plant accessions were characterized based on existing Solanum species descriptors. Total phenolics, flavonoids, saponins, vitamin C and AA  were determined by spectrophotometry, while total alkaloids were detected by gravimetry. HPLC was used for the quantification of phenolic compounds. Morphological characteristics, BCC and AA differed among the accessions. The fruit’s accessions contained total phenolics (8.0-12.4 mg gallic acid equivalent/g dry weight (DW)), saponins (51.1-124.8 mg diosgenin equivalent/g DW), alkaloids (81.4-127.7 mg/g DW), vitamin C (3.6-6.4 mg ascorbic acid equivalent/g DW), and flavonoids (0.9-2.1 mg quercetin equivalent (QE)/ g DW) and exhibited a high AA (1.2-4.6 mg QE/g DW). Amongst the quantified phenolic compounds, chlorogenic acid (21.4-301.3 μg/ g DW) had the highest content. Cluster analyses showed that morphological characteristics might be useful to predict accessions with similar BCC and AA. Accessions with high total phenolics provided the highest AA, and, therefore, may mediate health benefits

Emergence and Characterization of Serotype G9 Rotavirus Strains from Africa

Serotype G9 strains have been detected sporadically and in localized outbreaks in various African countries, including South Africa, Botswana, Malawi, Kenya, Cameroon, Nigeria, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Libya, and Mauritius. Serotype G9 strains were analyzed to investigate genogroup characteristics, including subgroup specificity, electropherotype, and P and G genotypes. In addition, the antigenic composition of the South African G9 strains was assessed. African G9 strains were associated with both DS-1-like characteristics and Wa-like characteristics, indicating the predisposition of G9 strains to frequently reassort. Despite these reassortment events, serotype G9 strains appear to maintain antigenic character in the outer capsid protein, as evident with the reaction of the South African G9 strains with the G9-specific monoclonal antibody F45:1. Phylogenetic analysis clustered African G9 strains geographically, regardless of genogroup characteristics, into 1 lineage (IIId). Two groups of G9 strains, originating in India and Japan, were identified in this lineage. Continuous surveillance of circulating rotavirus strains in Africa is vital to prepare for future vaccine implementation on a continent that clearly needs such preventative medicine

Long-term virological outcome in children on antiretroviral therapy in the UK and Ireland

Objective: To assess factors at the start of antiretroviral therapy (ART) associated with long-term virological response in children. Design: Multicentre national cohort. Methods: Factors associated with viral load below 400 copies/ml by 12 months and virologic failure among children starting 3/4-drug ART in the UK/Irish Collaborative HIV Paediatric Study were assessed using Poisson models. Results: Nine hundred and ninety-seven children started ART at a median age of 7.7 years (inter-quartile range 2.9–11.7), 251 (25%) below 3 years: 411 (41%) with efavirenz and two nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (EFVþ2NRTIs), 264 (26%) with nevirapine and two NRTIs (NVPþ2NRTIs), 119 (12%; 106 NVP, 13 EFV) with non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor and three NRTIs (NNRTIþ3NRTIs), and 203 (20%) with boosted protease inhibitor-based regimens. Median follow-up after ART initiation was 5.7 (3.0–8.8) years. Viral load was less than 400 copies/ml by 12 months in 92% [95% confidence interval (CI) 91–94%] of the children. Time to suppression was similar across regimens (P¼0.10), but faster over calendar time, with older age and lower baseline viral load. Three hundred and thirtynine (34%) children experienced virological failure. Although progression to failure varied by regimen (P<0.001) and was fastest for NVPþ2NRTIs regimens, risk after 2 years on therapy was similar for EFVþ2NRTIs and NVPþ2NRTIs, and lowest for NNRTIþ3NRTIs regimens (P-interaction¼0.03). Older age, earlier calendar periods and maternal ART exposure were associated with increased failure risk. Early treatment discontinuation for toxicity occurred more frequently for NVP-based regimens, but 5-year cumulative incidence was similar: 6.1% (95% CI 3.9–8.9%) NVP, 8.3% (95% CI 5.6–11.6) EFV, and 9.8% (95% CI 5.7–15.3%) protease inhibitor-based regimens (P¼0.48). Conclusion: Viral load suppression by 12 months was high with all regimens. NVPþ3NRTIs regimens were particularly efficacious in the longer term and may be a good alternative to protease inhibitor-based ART in young children