Simple “Market Value” Bargaining Model for Weighted Voting Games: Characterization and Limit Theorems

Feld, Grofman and Ray (2003) offer a bargaining model for weighted voting games that is a close relative of the nucleolus and the kernel. They look for a set of weights that preserves winning coalitions that has the property of minimizing the difference between the weight of the smallest and the weight of the largest Minimum Winning Coalition. They claim that such a set of weights provides an a priori measure of a weighted voter’s bribeworthiness or market value. Here, after reviewing the basic elements of their model, we provide a characterization result for this model and show its links to other bargaining model approaches in the literature. Then we offer some limit results showing that, with certain reasonable conditions on the distributions of weights, as the size of the voting body increases, the values of bribeworthiness we calculate will approach both the weights themselves and the Banzhaf scores for the weighted voting game. We also show that, even for relatively small groups using weighted voting, such as the membership of the European Council of Ministers (and its precedessors) 1958-2003, similarities among the usual a priori power scores, bribeworthiness/market value, and the weights themselves, will be quite strong

You are only as safe as your riskiest contact: Effective Covid-19 vaccine distribution using local network information

When vaccines are limited, prior research has suggested it is most protective to distribute vaccines to the most central individuals – those who are most likely to spread the disease. But surveying the population’s social network is a costly and time-consuming endeavour, often not completed before vaccination must begin. This paper validates a local targeting method for distributing vaccines. That is, ask randomly chosen individuals to nominate for vaccination the person they are in contact with who has the most disease-spreading contacts. Even better, ask that person to nominate the next person for vaccination, and so on. To validate this approach, we simulate the spread of COVID-19 along empirical contact networks collected in two high schools, in the United States and France, pre-COVID. These weighted networks are built by recording whenever students are in close spatial proximity and facing one another. We show here that nomination of most popular contacts performs significantly better than random vaccination, and on par with strategies which assume a full survey of the population. These results are robust over a range of realistic disease-spread parameters, as well as a larger synthetic contact network of 3000 individuals

Appraising and applying evidence about a diagnostic test during a performance-based assessment

BACKGROUND: The practice of Evidence-based Medicine requires that clinicians assess the validity of published research and then apply the results to patient care. We wanted to assess whether our soon-to-graduate medical students could appraise and apply research about a diagnostic test within a clinical context and to compare our students with peers trained at other institutions. METHODS: 4(th )year medical students who previously had demonstrated competency at probability revision and just starting first-year Internal Medicine residents were used for this research. Following an encounter with a simulated patient, subjects critically appraised a paper about an applicable diagnostic test and revised the patient's pretest probability given the test result. RESULTS: The medical students and residents demonstrated similar skills at critical appraisal, correctly answering 4.7 and 4.9, respectively, of 6 questions (p = 0.67). Only one out of 28 (3%) medical students and none of the 15 residents were able to correctly complete the probability revision task (p = 1.00). CONCLUSIONS: This study found that most students completing medical school are able to appraise an article about a diagnostic test but few are able to apply the information from the article to a patient. These findings raise questions about the clinical usefulness of the EBM skills possessed by graduating medical students within the area of diagnostic testing

Proceedings from the 2018 Canadian Association for the Study of the Liver Single Topic Conference—Decompensated Cirrhosis : from clinic to transplant

Actes publiés dans le Canadian Liver Journal; vol. 2, no. 4, Fall 2019, p. 137-170

Tests of model of color reconnection and a search for glueballs using gluon jets with a rapidity gap

Gluon jets with a mean energy of 22 GeV and purity of 95% are selected from hadronic Z0 decay events produced in e+e- annihilations. A subsample of these jets is identified which exhibits a large gap in the rapidity distribution of particles within the jet. After imposing the requirement of a rapidity gap, the gluon jet purity is 86%. These jets are observed to demonstrate a high degree of sensitivity to the presence of color reconnection, i.e. higher order QCD processes affecting the underlying color structure. We use our data to test three QCD models which include a simulation of color reconnection: one in the Ariadne Monte Carlo, one in the Herwig Monte Carlo, and the other by Rathsman in the Pythia Monte Carlo. We find the Rathsman and Ariadne color reconnection models can describe our gluon jet measurements only if very large values are used for the cutoff parameters which serve to terminate the parton showers, and that the description of inclusive Z0 data is significantly degraded in this case. We conclude that color reconnection as implemented by these two models is disfavored. The signal from the Herwig color reconnection model is less clear and we do not obtain a definite conclusion concerning this model. In a separate study, we follow recent theoretical suggestions and search for glueball-like objects in the leading part of the gluon jets. No clear evidence is observed for these objects.Comment: 42 pages, 18 figure

Measurement of the partial widths of the Z into up- and down-type quarks

Using the entire OPAL LEP1 on-peak Z hadronic decay sample, Z -> qbarq gamma decays were selected by tagging hadronic final states with isolated photon candidates in the electromagnetic calorimeter. Combining the measured rates of Z -> qbarq gamma decays with the total rate of hadronic Z decays permits the simultaneous determination of the widths of the Z into up- and down-type quarks. The values obtained, with total errors, were Gamma u = 300 ^{+19}_{-18} MeV and Gamma d = 381 ^{+12}_{-12} MeV. The results are in good agreement with the Standard Model expectation.Comment: 22 pages, 5 figures, Submitted to Phys. Letts.

Scaling violations of quark and gluon jet fragmentation functions in e+e- annihilations at sqrt(s) = 91.2 and 183-209 GeV

Flavour inclusive, udsc and b fragmentation functions in unbiased jets, and flavour inclusive, udsc, b and gluon fragmentation functions in biased jets are measured in e+e- annihilations from data collected at centre-of-mass energies of 91.2, and 183-209 GeV with the OPAL detector at LEP. The unbiased jets are defined by hemispheres of inclusive hadronic events, while the biased jet measurements are based on three-jet events selected with jet algorithms. Several methods are employed to extract the fragmentation functions over a wide range of scales. Possible biases are studied in the results are obtained. The fragmentation functions are compared to results from lower energy e+e- experiments and with earlier LEP measurements and are found to be consistent. Scaling violations are observed and are found to be stronger for the fragmentation functions of gluon jets than for those of quarks. The measured fragmentation functions are compared to three recent theoretical next-to-leading order calculations and to the predictions of three Monte Carlo event generators. While the Monte Carlo models are in good agreement with the data, the theoretical predictions fail to describe the full set of results, in particular the b and gluon jet measurements.Comment: 46 pages, 17 figures, Submitted to Eur. Phys J.

Search for R-Parity Violating Decays of Scalar Fermions at LEP

A search for pair-produced scalar fermions under the assumption that R-parity is not conserved has been performed using data collected with the OPAL detector at LEP. The data samples analysed correspond to an integrated luminosity of about 610 pb-1 collected at centre-of-mass energies of sqrt(s) 189-209 GeV. An important consequence of R-parity violation is that the lightest supersymmetric particle is expected to be unstable. Searches of R-parity violating decays of charged sleptons, sneutrinos and squarks have been performed under the assumptions that the lightest supersymmetric particle decays promptly and that only one of the R-parity violating couplings is dominant for each of the decay modes considered. Such processes would yield final states consisting of leptons, jets, or both with or without missing energy. No significant single-like excess of events has been observed with respect to the Standard Model expectations. Limits on the production cross- section of scalar fermions in R-parity violating scenarios are obtained. Constraints on the supersymmetric particle masses are also presented in an R-parity violating framework analogous to the Constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model.Comment: 51 pages, 24 figures, Submitted to Eur. Phys. J.

Search for the Standard Model Higgs Boson with the OPAL Detector at LEP

This paper summarises the search for the Standard Model Higgs boson in e+e- collisions at centre-of-mass energies up to 209 GeV performed by the OPAL Collaboration at LEP. The consistency of the data with the background hypothesis and various Higgs boson mass hypotheses is examined. No indication of a signal is found in the data and a lower bound of 112.7GeV/C^2 is obtained on the mass of the Standard Model Higgs boson at the 95% CL.Comment: 51 pages, 21 figure

A study of charm production in beauty decays with the OPAL detector at LEP

Using an inclusive method, BR(b -> D\bar{D}X) has been measured in hadronic Z^0 decays with the OPAL detector at LEP. The impact parameter significance of tracks opposite tagged b-jets is used to differentiate b -> D\bar{D}X decays from other decays. Using this result, the average number of charm and anti-charm quarks produced per beauty quark decay, n_c, is determined.Comment: 20 pages, 4 figure