Sedimentary evidence of hurricane strikes in western Long Island, New York

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2007. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems 8 (2007): Q06011, doi:10.1029/2006GC001463.Evidence of historical landfalling hurricanes and prehistoric storms has been recovered from backbarrier environments in the New York City area. Overwash deposits correlate with landfalls of the most intense documented hurricanes in the area, including the hurricanes of 1893, 1821, 1788, and 1693 A.D. There is little evidence of intense hurricane landfalls in the region for several hundred years prior to the late 17th century A.D. The apparent increase in intense hurricane landfalls around 300 years ago occurs during the latter half of the Little Ice Age, a time of lower tropical sea surface temperatures. Multiple washovers laid down between ~2200 and 900 cal yr B.P. suggest an interval of frequent intense hurricane landfalls in the region. Our results provide preliminary evidence that fluctuations in intense hurricane landfall in the northeastern United States were roughly synchronous with hurricane landfall fluctuations observed for the Caribbean and Gulf Coast, suggesting North Atlantic–wide changes in hurricane activity.Grants from the National Science Foundation (EAR 0519118), Risk Prediction Initiative at the Bermuda Biological Station for Research, and the Coastal Ocean Institute of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution supported this research

El Niño, tropical Atlantic warmth, and Atlantic hurricanes over the past 1500 years

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2009. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Nature Publishing Group for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Nature 460 (2009): 880-883, doi:10.1038/nature08219.Atlantic Tropical Cyclone (TC) activity, as measured by annual storm counts, reached anomalous levels over the past decade. The short nature of the historical record and potential issues with its reliability in earlier decades, however, has prompted an ongoing debate regarding the reality and significance of the recent rise. Here, we place recent activity in a longer-term context, by comparing two independent estimates of TC activity over the past 1500 years. The first estimate is based on a composite of regional sedimentary evidence of landfalling hurricanes, while the second estimate employs a previously published statistical model of Atlantic TC activity driven by proxy-reconstructions of past climate changes. Both approaches yield consistent evidence of a peak in Atlantic TC activity during Medieval times (around AD 1000) followed by a subsequent lull in activity. The Medieval peak, which rivals or even exceeds (within uncertainties) recent levels of activity, results in the statistical model from a ‘perfect storm’ of La Niña-like climate conditions and relative tropical Atlantic warmth.M.E.M. and Z.Z. acknowledge support from the ATM programme of the National Science Foundation (grant ATM-0542356). J.P.D. acknowledges support from the EAR and OCE programmes of the National Science Foundation (grants EAR-0519118 and OCE-0402746), the Risk Prediction Initiative at the Bermuda Institute for Ocean Sciences, and the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research

Tropical cyclone activity and western North Atlantic stratification over the last millennium: a comparative review with viable connections

Tropical cyclones (TC) are recognized to modify the thermal structure of the upper ocean through the process of vertical mixing. Assessing the role this mixing plays in the overall stratification of the upper ocean is difficult, due to the relatively short and incomplete instrumental record. Proxy records for both TC landfalls and oceanographic stratification are preserved within the geological record and provide insight for how past changes in TC‐induced mixing have potentially affected water column structure prior to the instrumental record. Here we provide the first comparison between previously published paleo‐reconstructions of vertical ocean density and tropical cyclone activity from the western North Atlantic. A prominent lull in TC activity has been observed prior to approximately 1700 CE that extends back several centuries. This interval of low TC activity is shown to be concurrent with the timing of increased ocean stratification near Great Bahama Bank, potentially due in part to reduced TC‐induced mixing. To test whether this relationship is feasible, we present numerical results from a coarse‐resolution ocean general circulation model experiment isolating the effect of TC surface wind forcing on the upper ocean. An anomaly of roughly 0.12 kg m −3 in vertical stratification occurs above and below the mixed layer for model runs with and without TC mixing. This anomaly is roughly 25% of the entire paleo‐density signal observed just prior to 1700 CE. These results suggest that TC mixing alone cannot completely explain the density anomaly observed prior to 1700 CE, but support TC variability as an important contributor to enhancing oceanic stratification during this interval. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/91201/1/1551_ftp.pd

Physically-based Assessment of Hurricane Surge Threat under Climate Change

Storm surges are responsible for much of the damage and loss of life associated with landfalling hurricanes. Understanding how global warming will affect hurricane surges thus holds great interest. As general circulation models (GCMs) cannot simulate hurricane surges directly, we couple a GCM-driven hurricane model with hydrodynamic models to simulate large numbers of synthetic surge events under projected climates and assess surge threat, as an example, for New York City (NYC). Struck by many intense hurricanes in recorded history and prehistory, NYC is highly vulnerable to storm surges. We show that the change of storm climatology will probably increase the surge risk for NYC; results based on two GCMs show the distribution of surge levels shifting to higher values by a magnitude comparable to the projected sea-level rise (SLR). The combined effects of storm climatology change and a 1 m SLR may cause the present NYC 100-yr surge flooding to occur every 3–20 yr and the present 500-yr flooding to occur every 25–240 yr by the end of the century.United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Postdoctoral Fellowship Program)National Science Foundation (U.S.