Current model capabilities for simulating black carbon and sulfate concentrations in the Arctic atmosphere: a multi-model evaluation using a comprehensive measurement data set

The concentrations of sulfate, black carbon (BC) and other aerosols in the Arctic are characterized by high values in late winter and spring (so-called Arctic Haze) and low values in summer. Models have long been struggling to capture this seasonality and especially the high concentrations associated with Arctic Haze. In this study, we evaluate sulfate and BC concentrations from eleven different models driven with the same emission inventory against a comprehensive pan-Arctic measurement data set over a time period of 2 years (2008–2009). The set of models consisted of one Lagrangian particle dispersion model, four chemistry transport models (CTMs), one atmospheric chemistry-weather forecast model and five chemistry climate models (CCMs), of which two were nudged to meteorological analyses and three were running freely. The measurement data set consisted of surface measurements of equivalent BC (eBC) from five stations (Alert, Barrow, Pallas, Tiksi and Zeppelin), elemental carbon (EC) from Station Nord and Alert and aircraft measurements of refractory BC (rBC) from six different campaigns. We find that the models generally captured the measured eBC or rBC and sulfate concentrations quite well, compared to previous comparisons. However, the aerosol seasonality at the surface is still too weak in most models. Concentrations of eBC and sulfate averaged over three surface sites are underestimated in winter/spring in all but one model (model means for January–March underestimated by 59 and 37 % for BC and sulfate, respectively), whereas concentrations in summer are overestimated in the model mean (by 88 and 44 % for July–September), but with overestimates as well as underestimates present in individual models. The most pronounced eBC underestimates, not included in the above multi-site average, are found for the station Tiksi in Siberia where the measured annual mean eBC concentration is 3 times higher than the average annual mean for all other stations. This suggests an underestimate of BC sources in Russia in the emission inventory used. Based on the campaign data, biomass burning was identified as another cause of the modeling problems. For sulfate, very large differences were found in the model ensemble, with an apparent anti-correlation between modeled surface concentrations and total atmospheric columns. There is a strong correlation between observed sulfate and eBC concentrations with consistent sulfate/eBC slopes found for all Arctic stations, indicating that the sources contributing to sulfate and BC are similar throughout the Arctic and that the aerosols are internally mixed and undergo similar removal. However, only three models reproduced this finding, whereas sulfate and BC are weakly correlated in the other models. Overall, no class of models (e.g., CTMs, CCMs) performed better than the others and differences are independent of model resolution

Comparing multiple competing interventions in the absence of randomized trials using clinical risk-benefit analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To demonstrate the use of risk-benefit analysis for comparing multiple competing interventions in the absence of randomized trials, we applied this approach to the evaluation of five anticoagulants to prevent thrombosis in patients undergoing orthopedic surgery.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using a cost-effectiveness approach from a clinical perspective (i.e. risk benefit analysis) we compared thromboprophylaxis with warfarin, low molecular weight heparin, unfractionated heparin, fondaparinux or ximelagatran in patients undergoing major orthopedic surgery, with sub-analyses according to surgery type. Proportions and variances of events defining risk (major bleeding) and benefit (thrombosis averted) were obtained through a meta-analysis and used to define beta distributions. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted and used to calculate incremental risks, benefits, and risk-benefit ratios. Finally, net clinical benefit was calculated for all replications across a range of risk-benefit acceptability thresholds, with a reference range obtained by estimating the case fatality rate - ratio of thrombosis to bleeding.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The analysis showed that compared to placebo ximelagatran was superior to other options but final results were influenced by type of surgery, since ximelagatran was superior in total knee replacement but not in total hip replacement.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Using simulation and economic techniques we demonstrate a method that allows comparing multiple competing interventions in the absence of randomized trials with multiple arms by determining the option with the best risk-benefit profile. It can be helpful in clinical decision making since it incorporates risk, benefit, and personal risk acceptance.</p

Scaler Rates from the Pierre Auger Observatory: A New Proxy of Solar Activity

The modulation of low-energy galactic cosmic rays reflects interplanetary magnetic field variations and can provide useful information on solar activity. An array of ground-surface detectors can reveal the secondary particles, which originate from the interaction of cosmic rays with the atmosphere. In this work, we present an investigation of the low-threshold rate (scaler) time series recorded in 16 yr of operation by the Pierre Auger Observatory surface detectors in Malargüe, Argentina. Through an advanced spectral analysis, we detected highly statistically significant variations in the time series with periods ranging from the decadal to the daily scale. We investigate their origin, revealing a direct connection with solar variability. Thanks to their intrinsic very low noise level, the Auger scalers allow a thorough and detailed investigation of the galactic cosmic-ray flux variations in the heliosphere at different timescales and can, therefore, be considered a new proxy of solar variability

Improving the photon sensitivity of the Pierre Auger Observatory with the AugerPrime Radio Detector

The AugerPrime upgrade represents a significant enhancement in the capability of the Pierre Auger Observatory to detect air showers. Central to this advancement is the installation of a radio antenna atop each existing Surface Detector station, constituting the Radio Detector (RD). The RD enhances the sensitivity of the Surface Detector to the electromagnetic component of air showers. Hence, the new detector presents an opportunity for the discovery of rare particles such as ultra-high-energy photons. This contribution shows the development efforts towards an RD trigger with focus on the detection of rare particles. The radio trigger designed for the detection of photon-induced events will be outlined, and the challenge of a radio background consisting of human-made noise is discussed. The trigger efficiency and reconstruction accuracy are studied with simulations. The presentation will conclude by summarizing the effectiveness of the new detector component

Drone-based calibration of AugerPrime radio antennas at the Pierre Auger Observatory

Radio emissions of extensive air showers can be observed at the Pierre Auger Observatory with the AugerPrime Radio Detector (RD). As part of the AugerPrime upgrade, RD is being installed on 1660 water-Cherenkov detectors on an area of about 3000 km2 and consists of dual-polarized Short Aperiodic Loaded Loop Antennas (SALLA). To achieve high measurement precision, RD needs to be well-calibrated, which requires the antenna response pattern to be well-known. We introduce a method to measure the directional response of the SALLA using a well-defined biconical antenna mounted to a drone. The drone-based setup possesses active stabilization and precise pointing with the use of a gimbal. Additionally, the drone’s position is tracked using differential GPS with O(cm) precision. This setup allows us to precisely extract the antenna response pattern from any direction in the frequency range of 30 − 80 MHz. In a recent in-situ campaign, calibration measurements of the AugerPrime radio detector have been performed. First results of these measurements are presented and compared to simulations

Towards a Cosmic-Ray Energy Scale with the Auger Engineering Radio Array

Radio detection of cosmic-ray (CR) induced extensive air showers with digital antenna arrays is a matured technique by now. At the Pierre Auger Observatory, the Auger Engineering Radio Array (AERA) has been measuring air-shower signals in conjunction with the particle detectors of the surface detector (SD) for over ten years. For an absolute determination of the CR energy with the Auger baseline detectors, the shower size estimator from the SD is calibrated with the energy scale of the fluorescence detector (FD). However, AERA has an independent access to the energy scale through the reconstructed radio signals. The hybrid detectors at the Pierre Auger Observatory offer the unique opportunity to compare the two independent energy scales. In this contribution, we present our envisaged methodology for cross-checking the agreement between the energy scales of the FD and AERA using hybrid SD-AERA shower data and simulations. We show individual steps of our radio signal reconstruction and highlight the key ingredients for calibrated energy measurements

AugerPrime surface detector electronics

Operating since 2004, the Pierre Auger Observatory has led to major advances in our understanding of the ultra-high-energy cosmic rays. The latest findings have revealed new insights that led to the upgrade of the Observatory, with the primary goal of obtaining information on the primary mass of the most energetic cosmic rays on a shower-by-shower basis. In the framework of the upgrade, called AugerPrime, the 1660 water-Cherenkov detectors of the surface array are equipped with plastic scintillators and radio antennas, allowing us to enhance the composition sensitivity. To accommodate new detectors and to increase experimental capabilities, the electronics is also upgraded. This includes better timing with up-to-date GPS receivers, higher sampling frequency, increased dynamic range, and more powerful local processing of the data. In this paper, the design characteristics of the new electronics and the enhanced dynamic range will be described. The manufacturing and test processes will be outlined and the test results will be discussed. The calibration of the SD detector and various performance parameters obtained from the analysis of the first commissioning data will also be presented

AugerPrime surface detector electronics

Operating since 2004, the Pierre Auger Observatory has led to major advances in our understanding of the ultra-high-energy cosmic rays. The latest findings have revealed new insights that led to the upgrade of the Observatory, with the primary goal of obtaining information on the primary mass of the most energetic cosmic rays on a shower-by-shower basis. In the framework of the upgrade, called AugerPrime, the 1660 water-Cherenkov detectors of the surface array are equipped with plastic scintillators and radio antennas, allowing us to enhance the composition sensitivity. To accommodate new detectors and to increase experimental capabilities, the electronics is also upgraded. This includes better timing with up-to-date GPS receivers, higher sampling frequency, increased dynamic range, and more powerful local processing of the data. In this paper, the design characteristics of the new electronics and the enhanced dynamic range will be described. The manufacturing and test processes will be outlined and the test results will be discussed. The calibration of the SD detector and various performance parameters obtained from the analysis of thefirst commissioning data will also be presented