The dynamics of overconfidence: Evidence from stock market forecasters

As a group, market forecasters are egregiously overconfident. In conformity to the dynamic model of overconfidence of Gervais and Odean (2001), successful forecasters become more overconfident. What’s more, more experienced forecasters have “learned to be overconfident,” and hence are more susceptible to this behavioral flaw than their less experienced peers. It is not just individuals who are affected. Markets also become more overconfident when market returns have been high.

The Dynamics of Overconfidence: Evidence from Stock Market Forecasters

As a group, market forecasters are egregiously overconfident. In conformity to the dynamic model of overconfidence of Gervais and Odean (2001), successful forecasters become more overconfident. What's more, more experienced forecasters have "learned to be overconfident", and hence are more susceptible to this behavioral flaw than their less experienced peers. It is not just individuals who are affected. Markets also become more overconfident when market returns have been high

Evaluating Conditional Asset Pricing Models for the German Stock Market

We study the performance of conditional asset pricing models in explaining the German cross-section of stock returns. Our test assets are portfolios sorted by size and book-to-market as in the paper by Fama and French (1993). Our results show that the empirical performance of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) can be improved substantially when allowing for time-varying parameters of the stochastic discount factor. A conditional CAPM with the term spread as a conditioning variable is able to explain the cross-section of German stock returns about as well as the Fama-French model. Structural break tests do not indicate parameter instability of the model - whereas the reverse is found for the Fama-French model. Unconditional model specifications however do a better job than conditional ones at capturing time-series predictability of the test portfolio returns

DO ECONOMIC FORECASTERS BELIEVE THE STOCK MARKET IS EFFICIENT? EVIDENCE FROM GERMANY

The perception of market efficiency is quite different from the reality of market efficiency.  We show using a large survey of German market forecasters that few respondents consistently believe that the stock market is currently efficient and will remain so.  Past volatility tends to erode the view that the market is efficient and strengthen the belief that the market is inefficient.&nbsp

Untreue durch schwarze Kassen in der Privatwirtschaft

Die Fallgruppe der schwarzen Kasse ist eine der umstrittensten des Untreuetatbestandes und ein „Klassiker“ des Wirtschaftsstrafrechts. Dennoch zeichnet sich weiterhin Bewegung ab, wie BGH NStZ 2018, 105 ff. und BGH wistra 2019, 190 ff. verdeutlichen. Aus diesem Grunde lohnt es sich, die Grundsätze dieser Fallgruppe klar und kritisch anhand der zentralen Entscheidungen herauszustellen und anders als die Rechtsprechung. zwischen den relevanten Anknüpfungspunkten streng zu differenzieren

Metric for attractor overlap

We present the first general metric for attractor overlap (MAO) facilitating an unsupervised comparison of flow data sets. The starting point is two or more attractors, i.e., ensembles of states representing different operating conditions. The proposed metric generalizes the standard Hilbert-space distance between two snapshots to snapshot ensembles of two attractors. A reduced-order analysis for big data and many attractors is enabled by coarse-graining the snapshots into representative clusters with corresponding centroids and population probabilities. For a large number of attractors, MAO is augmented by proximity maps for the snapshots, the centroids, and the attractors, giving scientifically interpretable visual access to the closeness of the states. The coherent structures belonging to the overlap and disjoint states between these attractors are distilled by few representative centroids. We employ MAO for two quite different actuated flow configurations: (1) a two-dimensional wake of the fluidic pinball with vortices in a narrow frequency range and (2) three-dimensional wall turbulence with broadband frequency spectrum manipulated by spanwise traveling transversal surface waves. MAO compares and classifies these actuated flows in agreement with physical intuition. For instance, the first feature coordinate of the attractor proximity map correlates with drag for the fluidic pinball and for the turbulent boundary layer. MAO has a large spectrum of potential applications ranging from a quantitative comparison between numerical simulations and experimental particle-image velocimetry data to the analysis of simulations representing a myriad of different operating conditions.Comment: 33 pages, 20 figure

Multifaktormodelle zur Erklärung deutscher Aktienrenditen : Eine empirische Analyse

Dieses Papier untersucht, inwieweit Multifaktormodelle nach Fama/French (1993) am deutschen Aktienmarkt die zeitliche Streuung von Renditen abbilden und Portfolio-Renditen im Querschnitt erklären können. Analog zu vergleichbar angelegten Studien am US-amerikanischen, kanadischen und britischen Aktienmarkt ergibt sich aus den linearen Zeitreihen-Regressionen, dass ein Dreifaktorenmodell, das neben der Überschussrendite des Aktienmarktes zwei weitere Risikofaktoren des Aktienmarktes enthält (die sich aus dem Marktwert sowie dem Quotienten aus Buch- und Marktwert ableiten), eine wesentlich höhere Erklärungskraft für die Überschussrendite von Aktienportfolios besitzt als das traditionelle Capital Asset Pricing Model. Dagegen weisen zwei Risikofaktoren des Anleihenmarktes (die sich aus der Zinsstruktur und dem Ausfallrisiko ableiten) in einem Fünffaktorenmodell keinen zusätzlichen Erklärungsgehalt auf. Gegenüber den USA und Kanada kann das Dreifaktorenmodell allerdings für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland die zeitliche Streuung von Aktienrenditen nur schlechter abbilden. Dagegen werden Portfolio-Renditen im Querschnitt am deutschen Aktienmarkt wesentlich besser erklärt als am US-amerikanischen Aktienmarkt

Das eheliche Güterrecht Deutschlands in Vergangenheit, Gegenwart und Zukunft

http://tartu.ester.ee/record=b2291418~S1*es

Multifaktormodelle zur Erklärung deutscher Aktienrenditen: eine empirische Analyse

Dieses Papier untersucht, inwieweit Multifaktormodelle nach Fama/French (1993) am deutschen Aktienmarkt die zeitliche Streuung von Renditen abbilden und Portfolio-Renditen im Querschnitt erklären können. Analog zu vergleichbar angelegten Studien am US-amerikanischen, kanadischen und britischen Aktienmarkt ergibt sich aus den linearen Zeitreihen- Regressionen, dass ein Dreifaktorenmodell, das neben der Überschussrendite des Aktienmarktes zwei weitere Risikofaktoren des Aktienmarktes enthält (die sich aus dem Marktwert sowie dem Quotienten aus Buch- und Marktwert ableiten), eine wesentlich höhere Erklärungskraft für die Überschussrendite von Aktienportfolios besitzt als das traditionelle Capital Asset Pricing Model. Dagegen weisen zwei Risikofaktoren des Anleihenmarktes (die sich aus der Zinsstruktur und dem Ausfallrisiko ableiten) in einem Fünffaktorenmodell keinen zusätzlichen Erklärungsgehalt auf. Gegenüber den USA und Kanada kann das Dreifaktorenmodell allerdings für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland die zeitliche Streuung von Aktienrenditen nur schlechter abbilden. Dagegen werden Portfolio-Renditen im Querschnitt am deutschen Aktienmarkt wesentlich besser erklärt als am US-amerikanischen Aktienmarkt. --Multifaktormodelle,CAPM,Aktienrenditen

Extreme low temperature tolerance in woody plants

Woody plants in boreal to arctic environments and high mountains survive prolonged exposure to temperatures below -40°C and minimum temperatures below -60°C, and laboratory tests show that many of these species can also survive immersion in liquid nitrogen at -196°C. Studies of biochemical changes that occur during acclimation, including recent proteomic and metabolomic studies, have identified changes in carbohydrate and compatible solute concentrations, membrane lipid composition, and proteins, notably dehydrins, that may have important roles in survival at extreme low temperature (ELT). Consideration of the biophysical mechanisms of membrane stress and strain lead to the following hypotheses for cellular and molecular mechanisms of survival at ELT: (1) Changes in lipid composition stabilize membranes at temperatures above the lipid phase transition temperature (-20 to -30°C), preventing phase changes that result in irreversible injury. (2) High concentrations of oligosaccharides promote vitrification or high viscosity in the cytoplasm in freeze-dehydrated cells, which would prevent deleterious interactions between membranes. (3) Dehydrins bind membranes and further promote vitrification or act stearically to prevent membrane–membrane interactions.© 2015 Strimbeck, Schaberg, Fossdal, Schröder and Kjellsen. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms