Covariate-adjusted response-adaptive randomization for multi-arm clinical trials using a modified forward looking Gittins index rule.

We introduce a non-myopic, covariate-adjusted response adaptive (CARA) allocation design for multi-armed clinical trials. The allocation scheme is a computationally tractable procedure based on the Gittins index solution to the classic multi-armed bandit problem and extends the procedure recently proposed in Villar et al. (2015). Our proposed CARA randomization procedure is defined by reformulating the bandit problem with covariates into a classic bandit problem in which there are multiple combination arms, considering every arm per each covariate category as a distinct treatment arm. We then apply a heuristically modified Gittins index rule to solve the problem and define allocation probabilities from the resulting solution. We report the efficiency, balance, and ethical performance of our approach compared to existing CARA methods using a recently published clinical trial as motivation. The net savings in terms of expected number of treatment failures is considerably larger and probably enough to make this design attractive for certain studies where known covariates are expected to be important, stratification is not desired, treatment failures have a high ethical cost, and the disease under study is rare. In a two-armed context, this patient benefit advantage comes at the expense of increased variability in the allocation proportions and a reduction in statistical power. However, in a multi-armed context, simple modifications of the proposed CARA rule can be incorporated so that an ethical advantage can be offered without sacrificing power in comparison with balanced designs.This research started while the first author was visiting the Department of Statistics, George Mason University, supported by the UK Medical Research Council and the Biometrika Trust

Antipyretic therapy in critically ill septic patients: A systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE: This meta-analysis aimed to examine the impact of antipyretic therapy on mortality in critically ill septic adults. DATA SOURCES: Literature searches were implemented in Ovid Medline, Embase, Scopus, Cumulative Index of Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, NHS Economic Evaluation Database, and ClinicalTrials.gov through February 2016. STUDY SELECTION: Inclusion criteria were observational or randomized studies of septic patients, evaluation of antipyretic treatment, mortality reported, and English-language version available. Studies were excluded if they enrolled pediatric patients, patients with neurologic injury, or healthy volunteers. Criteria were applied by two independent reviewers. DATA EXTRACTION: Two reviewers independently extracted data and evaluated methodologic quality. Outcomes included mortality, frequency of shock reversal, acquisition of nosocomial infections, and changes in body temperature, heart rate, and minute ventilation. Randomized and observational studies were analyzed separately. DATA SYNTHESIS: Eight randomized studies (1,507 patients) and eight observational studies (17,432 patients) were analyzed. Antipyretic therapy did not reduce 28-day/hospital mortality in the randomized studies (relative risk, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.77–1.13; I(2) = 0.0%) or observational studies (odds ratio, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.54–1.51; I(2) = 76.1%). Shock reversal (relative risk, 1.13; 95% CI, 0.68–1.90; I(2) = 51.6%) and acquisition of nosocomial infections (relative risk, 1.13; 95% CI, 0.61–2.09; I(2) = 61.0%) were also unchanged. Antipyretic therapy decreased body temperature (mean difference, –0.38°C; 95% CI, –0.63 to –0.13; I(2) = 84.0%), but not heart rate or minute ventilation. CONCLUSIONS: Antipyretic treatment does not significantly improve 28-day/hospital mortality in adult patients with sepsis

Randomized controlled trial of intraoperative goal-directed fluid therapy in aerobically fit and unfit patients having major colorectal surgery.

BACKGROUND: Intraoperative fluid therapy regimens using oesophageal Doppler monitoring (ODM) to optimize stroke volume (SV) (goal-directed fluid therapy, GDT) have been associated with a reduction in length of stay (LOS) and complication rates after major surgery. We hypothesized that intraoperative GDT would reduce the time to surgical readiness for discharge (RfD) of patients having major elective colorectal surgery but that this effect might be less marked in aerobically fit patients. METHODS: In this double-blinded controlled trial, 179 patients undergoing major open or laparoscopic colorectal surgery were characterized as aerobically 'fit' (n=123) or 'unfit' (n=56) on the basis of their performance during a cardiopulmonary exercise test. Within these fitness strata, patients were randomized to receive a standard fluid regimen with or without ODM-guided intraoperative GDT. RESULTS: GDT patients received an average of 1360 ml of additional intraoperative colloid. The mean cardiac index and SV at skin closure were significantly higher in the GDT group than in controls. Times to RfD and LOS were longer in GDT than control patients but did not reach statistical significance (median 6.8 vs 4.9 days, P=0.09, and median 8.8 vs 6.7 days, P=0.09, respectively). Fit GDT patients had an increased RfD (median 7.0 vs 4.7 days; P=0.01) and LOS (median 8.8 vs 6.0 days; P=0.01) compared with controls. CONCLUSIONS: Intraoperative SV optimization conferred no additional benefit over standard fluid therapy. In an aerobically fit subgroup of patients, GDT was associated with detrimental effects on the primary outcome. TRIAL REGISTRY: UK NIHR CRN 7285, ISRCTN 14680495. http://public.ukcrn.org.uk/Search/StudyDetail.aspx?StudyID=7285

Diagnostic performance of fractional excretion of urea in the evaluation of critically ill patients with acute kidney injury: a multicenter cohort study

International audienceINTRODUCTION: Several factors, including diuretic use and sepsis, interfere with the fractional excretion of sodium, which is used to distinguish transient from persistent acute kidney injury (AKI). These factors do not affect the fractional excretion of urea (FeUrea). However, there are conflicting data on the diagnostic accuracy of FeUrea. METHODS: We conducted an observational, prospective, multicenter study at three ICUs in university hospitals. Unselected patients, except those with obstructive AKI, were admitted to the participating ICUs during a six-month period. Transient AKI was defined as AKI caused by renal hypoperfusion and reversal within three days. The results are reported as medians (interquartile ranges). RESULTS: A total of 203 patients were included. According to our definitions, 67 had no AKI, 54 had transient AKI and 82 had persistent AKI. FeUrea was 39% (28 to 40) in the no-AKI group, 41% (29 to 54) in the transient AKI group and 32% (22 to 51) in the persistent AKI group (P = 0.12). FeUrea was of little help in distinguishing transient AKI from persistent AKI, with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve being 0.59 (95% confidence interval, 0.49 to 0.70; P = 0.06). Sensitivity was 63% and specificity was 54% with a cutoff of 35%. In the subgroup of patients receiving diuretics, the results were similar. CONCLUSIONS: FeUrea may be of little help in distinguishing transient AKI from persistent AKI in critically ill patients, including those receiving diuretic therapy. Additional studies are needed to evaluate alternative markers or strategies to differentiate transient from persistent AKI

Adults with spontaneous aerobic Gram-negative bacillary meningitis admitted to the intensive care unit

ABSTRACTThe characteristics of spontaneous aerobic Gram-negative bacillary meningitis (AGNBM) were determined in 40 adults requiring admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) during a 16-year period in ten French ICUs. Eight infections were hospital-acquired and most patients had predisposing factors, mainly chronic alcoholism and an immunocompromised status. Three immunosuppressed patients had disseminated strongyloidiasis. Gram's stain, cerebrospinal fluid and blood cultures were positive for 85%, 98% and 80% of cases, respectively. Escherichia coli (57%) and Klebsiella pneumoniae (17%) were the most frequent pathogens. In-ICU mortality was 38%. Spontaneous AGNBM is a rare complication of bacteraemia in adults. The severity of predisposing underlying diseases might explain the poor prognosis despite appropriate antimicrobial therapy