Forecasting annual maximum water level for the Negro River at Manaus using dynamical seasonal predictions

Early and skilful prediction of the Negro River maximum water levels at Manaus is critical for effective mitigation measures to safeguard lives and livelihoods. Using dynamical seasonal prediction hindcasts, from six prediction centres, we investigate extending the lead time of previously developed statistical models, which issue forecasts in March for Manaus. The original statistical forecast models used observed rainfall as the major predictor. We advance the capability to issue skilful forecasts earlier, in February. We develop ensemble forecasts by combining predictor data from observations and seasonal hindcasts. We compare those forecasts against the original statistical forecast models and forecasts using the observed climatology or persistence of predictors. The ensemble-mean forecasts, issued in February, using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) hindcast input, perform similarly as the original forecasts issued in March and gain one month of lead time. The ECMWF-based ensemble forecasts skilfully predict the likelihood of water levels exceeding the severe flood level of 29 m. Forecast performance reduces and ensemble spread increases with increasing lead time from February to January. We conclude that forecasts for Manaus maximum water levels can be produced using combined input from observations and real-time ECMWF forecasts

Co-limitation towards lower latitudes shapes global forest diversity gradients

The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) is one of the most recognized global patterns of species richness exhibited across a wide range of taxa. Numerous hypotheses have been proposed in the past two centuries to explain LDG, but rigorous tests of the drivers of LDGs have been limited by a lack of high-quality global species richness data. Here we produce a high-resolution (0.025° × 0.025°) map of local tree species richness using a global forest inventory database with individual tree information and local biophysical characteristics from ~1.3 million sample plots. We then quantify drivers of local tree species richness patterns across latitudes. Generally, annual mean temperature was a dominant predictor of tree species richness, which is most consistent with the metabolic theory of biodiversity (MTB). However, MTB underestimated LDG in the tropics, where high species richness was also moderated by topographic, soil and anthropogenic factors operating at local scales. Given that local landscape variables operate synergistically with bioclimatic factors in shaping the global LDG pattern, we suggest that MTB be extended to account for co-limitation by subordinate drivers

Evenness mediates the global relationship between forest productivity and richness

1. Biodiversity is an important component of natural ecosystems, with higher species richness often correlating with an increase in ecosystem productivity. Yet, this relationship varies substantially across environments, typically becoming less pronounced at high levels of species richness. However, species richness alone cannot reflect all important properties of a community, including community evenness, which may mediate the relationship between biodiversity and productivity. If the evenness of a community correlates negatively with richness across forests globally, then a greater number of species may not always increase overall diversity and productivity of the system. Theoretical work and local empirical studies have shown that the effect of evenness on ecosystem functioning may be especially strong at high richness levels, yet the consistency of this remains untested at a global scale. 2. Here, we used a dataset of forests from across the globe, which includes composition, biomass accumulation and net primary productivity, to explore whether productivity correlates with community evenness and richness in a way that evenness appears to buffer the effect of richness. Specifically, we evaluated whether low levels of evenness in speciose communities correlate with the attenuation of the richness–productivity relationship. 3. We found that tree species richness and evenness are negatively correlated across forests globally, with highly speciose forests typically comprising a few dominant and many rare species. Furthermore, we found that the correlation between diversity and productivity changes with evenness: at low richness, uneven communities are more productive, while at high richness, even communities are more productive. 4. Synthesis. Collectively, these results demonstrate that evenness is an integral component of the relationship between biodiversity and productivity, and that the attenuating effect of richness on forest productivity might be partly explained by low evenness in speciose communities. Productivity generally increases with species richness, until reduced evenness limits the overall increases in community diversity. Our research suggests that evenness is a fundamental component of biodiversity–ecosystem function relationships, and is of critical importance for guiding conservation and sustainable ecosystem management decisions

Climatic controls of decomposition drive the global biogeography of forest-tree symbioses

The identity of the dominant root-associated microbial symbionts in a forest determines the ability of trees to access limiting nutrients from atmospheric or soil pools1,2, sequester carbon3,4 and withstand the effects of climate change5,6. Characterizing the global distribution of these symbioses and identifying the factors that control this distribution are thus integral to understanding the present and future functioning of forest ecosystems. Here we generate a spatially explicit global map of the symbiotic status of forests, using a database of over 1.1 million forest inventory plots that collectively contain over 28,000 tree species. Our analyses indicate that climate variables—in particular, climatically controlled variation in the rate of decomposition—are the primary drivers of the global distribution of major symbioses. We estimate that ectomycorrhizal trees, which represent only 2% of all plant species7, constitute approximately 60% of tree stems on Earth. Ectomycorrhizal symbiosis dominates forests in which seasonally cold and dry climates inhibit decomposition, and is the predominant form of symbiosis at high latitudes and elevation. By contrast, arbuscular mycorrhizal trees dominate in aseasonal, warm tropical forests, and occur with ectomycorrhizal trees in temperate biomes in which seasonally warm-and-wet climates enhance decomposition. Continental transitions between forests dominated by ectomycorrhizal or arbuscular mycorrhizal trees occur relatively abruptly along climate-driven decomposition gradients; these transitions are probably caused by positive feedback effects between plants and microorganisms. Symbiotic nitrogen fixers—which are insensitive to climatic controls on decomposition (compared with mycorrhizal fungi)—are most abundant in arid biomes with alkaline soils and high maximum temperatures. The climatically driven global symbiosis gradient that we document provides a spatially explicit quantitative understanding of microbial symbioses at the global scale, and demonstrates the critical role of microbial mutualisms in shaping the distribution of plant species

Evenness mediates the global relationship between forest productivity and richness

1. Biodiversity is an important component of natural ecosystems, with higher species richness often correlating with an increase in ecosystem productivity. Yet, this relationship varies substantially across environments, typically becoming less pronounced at high levels of species richness. However, species richness alone cannot reflect all important properties of a community, including community evenness, which may mediate the relationship between biodiversity and productivity. If the evenness of a community correlates negatively with richness across forests globally, then a greater number of species may not always increase overall diversity and productivity of the system. Theoretical work and local empirical studies have shown that the effect of evenness on ecosystem functioning may be especially strong at high richness levels, yet the consistency of this remains untested at a global scale. 2. Here, we used a dataset of forests from across the globe, which includes composition, biomass accumulation and net primary productivity, to explore whether productivity correlates with community evenness and richness in a way that evenness appears to buffer the effect of richness. Specifically, we evaluated whether low levels of evenness in speciose communities correlate with the attenuation of the richness–productivity relationship. 3. We found that tree species richness and evenness are negatively correlated across forests globally, with highly speciose forests typically comprising a few dominant and many rare species. Furthermore, we found that the correlation between diversity and productivity changes with evenness: at low richness, uneven communities are more productive, while at high richness, even communities are more productive. 4. Synthesis. Collectively, these results demonstrate that evenness is an integral component of the relationship between biodiversity and productivity, and that the attenuating effect of richness on forest productivity might be partly explained by low evenness in speciose communities. Productivity generally increases with species richness, until reduced evenness limits the overall increases in community diversity. Our research suggests that evenness is a fundamental component of biodiversity–ecosystem function relationships, and is of critical importance for guiding conservation and sustainable ecosystem management decisions

Tendências e impactos dos vetores de degradação e restauração da biodiversidade e dos serviços ecossistêmicos.

O Brasil é um país conhecido por sua megadiversidade e dimensão continental que proporcionam heterogeneidade espacial e de recursos. Acredita-se que a sua biodiversidade seja representada por cerca de 42 mil espécies vegetais e 148 mil espécies animais (9 mil vertebrados e, no mínimo, 129.840 invertebrados), incluindo altas taxas de endemismo. Os esforços para o levantamento da biodiversidade marinha vêm crescendo e o volume de informações aumentou. Todos os filos estão representados nesse ecossistema, sendo que alguns grupos apresentam espécies ao mesmo tempo endêmicas e ameaçadas. Atualmente a lista nacional de espécies ameaçadas conta com 1.173 espécies da fauna e 2.118 da flora. Nos últimos 20 anos, os biomas brasileiros têm sofrido importantes mudanças, decorrentes tanto de impactos de atividades humanas quanto de desastres naturais, que resultam em crescentes perdas de biodiversidade e de serviços ecossistêmicos. Os vetores de degradação atuam com maior ou menor intensidade nos biomas brasileiros, sendo as mudanças no uso da terra, a expansão urbana, a poluição, a introdução de espécies exóticas invasoras e as obras de infraestrutura as principais ameaças às espécies e causas de extinção. Nos ambientes marinhos, a poluição e a sobrepesca vêm causando a redução dos estoques pesqueiros (33% deles sobre-explotados). Este capítulo apresenta uma análise detalhada desses vetores e de seus impactos na biodiversidade e nos serviços ecossistêmicos

Evenness mediates the global relationship between forest productivity and richness

Biodiversity is an important component of natural ecosystems, with higher species richness often correlating with an increase in ecosystem productivity. Yet, this relationship varies substantially across environments, typically becoming less pronounced at high levels of species richness. However, species richness alone cannot reflect all important properties of a community, including community evenness, which may mediate the relationship between biodiversity and productivity. If the evenness of a community correlates negatively with richness across forests globally, then a greater number of species may not always increase overall diversity and productivity of the system. Theoretical work and local empirical studies have shown that the effect of evenness on ecosystem functioning may be especially strong at high richness levels, yet the consistency of this remains untested at a global scale. 2. Here, we used a dataset of forests from across the globe, which includes composition, biomass accumulation and net primary productivity, to explore whether productivity correlates with community evenness and richness in a way that evenness appears to buffer the effect of richness. Specifically, we evaluated whether low levels of evenness in speciose communities correlate with the attenuation of the richness–productivity relationship. 3. We found that tree species richness and evenness are negatively correlated across forests globally, with highly speciose forests typically comprising a few dominant and many rare species. Furthermore, we found that the correlation between diversity and productivity changes with evenness: at low richness, uneven communities are more productive, while at high richness, even communities are more productive. 4. Synthesis. Collectively, these results demonstrate that evenness is an integral component of the relationship between biodiversity and productivity, and that the attenuating effect of richness on forest productivity might be partly explained by low evenness in speciose communities. Productivity generally increases with species richness, until reduced evenness limits the overall increases in community diversity. Our research suggests that evenness is a fundamental component of biodiversity–ecosystem function relationships, and is of critical importance for guiding conservation and sustainable ecosystem management decisions. © 2023 The Authors. Journal of Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society

Modeling of regional- and local-scale distribution of the genus Montrichardia Crueg. (Araceae)

Knowledge of the environmental correlates of species’ distributions is essential for understanding population dynamics, responses to environmental changes, biodiversity patterns, and the impacts of conservation plans. Here we examine how environment controls the distribution of the neotropical genus Montrichardia at regional and local spatial scales using species distribution models (SDMs) and logistic regression, respectively. Montrichardia is a genus of aquatic macrophytes with two species, Montrichardia linifera and Montrichardia arborescens, and is often an important component of flooded habitats. We find that for each species, altitude, precipitation and temperature of the driest month figure in the best performing SDMs as the most important factors controlling large-scale distributions, suggesting that the range limits of both species are climatically constrained by plant water-energy balance and cold intolerance. At small spatial scales, logistic regression models indicate the species partition types of aquatic habitat along local gradients of water pH, conductivity, and water transparency. In summary, a hierarchy of factors may control Montrichardia distribution from large to small spatial scales. While at large spatial scales, evolutionarily conserved climatic niches may control the range limits of the genus, at small spatial scales niche differentiation allows individual species to grow in environmentally distinct aquatic habitats