On the epistemological similarities of market liberalism and standpoint theory

In this paper, we draw attention to the epistemological assumptions of market liberalism and standpoint theory and argue that they have more in common than previously thought. We show that both traditions draw on a similar epistemological bedrock, specifically relating to the fragmentation of knowledge in society and the fact that some of this knowledge cannot easily be shared between agents. We go on to investigate how market liberals and standpoint theorists argue with recourse to these similar foundations, and sometimes diverge, primarily because of normative pre-commitments. One conclusion we draw from this is that these similarities suggest that market liberals ought to, by their own epistemological lights, be more attentive towards various problems raised by feminist standpoint theorists, and feminist standpoint theorists ought to be more open to various claims made by market liberals.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Moral hazards and solar radiation management: evidence from a large-scale online experiment

Solar radiation management (SRM) may help to reduce the negative outcomes of climate change by minimising or reversing global warming. However, many express the worry that SRM may pose a moral hazard, i.e., that information about SRM may lead to a reduction in climate change mitigation efforts. In this paper, we report a large-scale preregistered, money-incentivised, online experiment with a representative US sample (N = 2284). We compare actual behaviour (donations to climate change charities and clicks on climate change petition links) as well as stated preferences (support for a carbon tax and self-reported intentions to reduce emissions) between participants who receive information about SRM with two control groups (a salience control that includes information about climate change generally and a content control that includes information about a different topic). Behavioural choices are made with an earned real-money endowment, and stated preference responses are incentivised via the Bayesian Truth Serum. We fail to find a significant impact of receiving information about SRM and, based on equivalence tests, we provide evidence in favour of the absence of a meaningfully large effect. Our results thus provide evidence for the claim that there is no detectable moral hazard with respect to SRM

Sure-thing vs. probabilistic charitable giving : experimental evidence on the role of individual differences in risky and ambiguous charitable decision-making

One of the authors, Philipp Schoenegger, has received a research funding from the Forethought Foundation and the Centre for Effective Altruism (they do not provide grant numbers).Charities differ, among other things, alongside the likelihood that their interventions succeed and produce the desired outcomes and alongside the extent that such likelihood can even be articulated numerically. In this paper, we investigate what best explains charitable giving behaviour regarding charities that have interventions that will succeed with a quantifiable and high probability (sure-thing charities) and charities that have interventions that only have a small and hard to quantify probability of bringing about the desired end (probabilistic charities). We study individual differences in risk/ambiguity attitudes, empathy, numeracy, optimism, and donor type (warm glow vs. pure altruistic donor type) as potential predictors of this choice. We conduct a money incentivised, pre-registered experiment on Prolific on a representative UK sample (n = 1,506) to investigate participant choices (i) between these two types of charities and (ii) about one randomly selected charity. Overall, we find little to no evidence that individual differences predict choices regarding decisions about sure-thing and probabilistic charities, with the exception that a purely altruistic donor type predicts donations to probabilistic charities when participants were presented with a randomly selected charity in (ii). Conducting exploratory equivalence tests, we find that the data provide robust evidence in favour of the absence of an effect (or a negligibly small effect) where we fail to reject the null. This is corroborated by exploratory Bayesian analyses. We take this paper to be contributing to the literature on charitable giving via this comprehensive null-result in pursuit of contributing to a cumulative science.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Diminished diversity-of-thought in a standard large language model

We test whether large language models (LLMs) can be used to simulate human participants in social-science studies. To do this, we ran replications of 14 studies from the Many Labs 2 replication project with OpenAI’s text-davinci-003 model, colloquially known as GPT-3.5. Based on our pre-registered analyses, we find that among the eight studies we could analyse, our GPT sample replicated 37.5% of the original results and 37.5% of the Many Labs 2 results. However, we were unable to analyse the remaining six studies due to an unexpected phenomenon we call the “correct answer” effect. Different runs of GPT-3.5 answered nuanced questions probing political orientation, economic preference, judgement, and moral philosophy with zero or near-zero variation in responses: with the supposedly “correct answer.” In one exploratory follow-up study, we found that a “correct answer” was robust to changing the demographic details that precede the prompt. In another, we found that most but not all “correct answers” were robust to changing the order of answer choices. One of our most striking findings occurred in our replication of the Moral Foundations Theory survey results, where we found GPT-3.5 identifying as a political conservative in 99.6% of the cases, and as a liberal in 99.3% of the cases in the reverse-order condition. However, both self-reported ‘GPT conservatives’ and ‘GPT liberals’ showed right-leaning moral foundations. Our results cast doubts on the validity of using LLMs as a general replacement for human participants in the social sciences. Our results also raise concerns that a hypothetical AI-led future may be subject to a diminished diversity of thought

Artificial intelligence in psychology research

Large Language Models have vastly grown in capabilities. One potential application of such AI systems is to support data collection in the social sciences, where perfect experimental control is currently unfeasible and the collection of large, representative datasets is generally expensive. In this paper, we re-replicate 14 studies from the Many Labs 2 replication project (Klein et al., 2018) with OpenAI's text-davinci-003 model, colloquially known as GPT3.5. For the 10 studies that we could analyse, we collected a total of 10,136 responses, each of which was obtained by running GPT3.5 with the corresponding study's survey inputted as text. We find that our GPT3.5-based sample replicates 30% of the original results as well as 30% of the Many Labs 2 results, although there is heterogeneity in both these numbers (as we replicate some original findings that Many Labs 2 did not and vice versa). We also find that unlike the corresponding human subjects, GPT3.5 answered some survey questions with extreme homogeneity\unicode{x2013}with zero variation in different runs' responses\unicode{x2013}raising concerns that a hypothetical AI-led future may in certain ways be subject to a diminished diversity of thought. Overall, while our results suggest that Large Language Model psychology studies are feasible, their findings should not be assumed to straightforwardly generalise to the human case. Nevertheless, AI-based data collection may eventually become a viable and economically relevant method in the empirical social sciences, making the understanding of its capabilities and applications central.Comment: 28 pages, 2 visualizations (1 table and 1 figure), preregistered OSF database is available at https://osf.io/dzp8t

Moral hazards and solar radiation management: Evidence from a large-scale online experiment

Solar radiation management (SRM) may help to reduce the negative outcomes of climate change by minimising or reversing global warming. However, many express the worry that SRM may pose a moral hazard, i.e., that information about SRM may lead to a reduction in climate change mitigation efforts. In this paper, we report a large-scale preregistered, money-incentivised, online experiment with a representative US sample (N = 2284). We compare actual behaviour (donations to climate change charities and clicks on climate change petition links) as well as stated preferences (support for a carbon tax and self-reported intentions to reduce emissions) between participants who receive information about SRM with two control groups (a salience control that includes information about climate change generally and a content control that includes information about a different topic). Behavioural choices are made with an earned real-money endowment, and stated preference responses are incentivised via the Bayesian Truth Serum. We fail to find a significant impact of receiving information about SRM and, based on equivalence tests, we provide evidence in favour of the absence of a meaningfully large effect. Our results thus provide evidence for the claim that there is no detectable moral hazard with respect to SRM. [Open access

Rock-eating mycorrhizas: their role in plant nutrition and biogeochemical cycles

A decade ago, tunnels inside mineral grains were found that were likely formed by hyphae of ectomycorrhizal (EcM) fungi. This observation implied that EcM fungi can dissolve mineral grains. The observation raised several questions on the ecology of these ¿rock-eating¿ fungi. This review addresses the roles of these rock-eating EcM associations in plant nutrition, biogeochemical cycles and pedogenesis. Research approaches ranged from molecular to ecosystem level scales. Nutrient deficiencies change EcM seedling exudation patterns of organic anions and thus their potential to mobilise base cations from minerals. This response was fungal species-specific. Some EcM fungi accelerated mineral weathering. While mineral weathering could also increase the concentrations of phytotoxic aluminium in the soil solution, some EcM fungi increase Al tolerance through an enhanced exudation of oxalate. Through their contribution to Al transport, EcM hyphae could be agents in pedogenesis, especially podzolisation. A modelling study indicated that mineral tunnelling is less important than surface weathering by EcM fungi. With both processes taken together, the contribution of EcM fungi to weathering may be significant. In the field vertical niche differentiation of EcM fungi was shown for EcM root tips and extraradical mycelium. In the field EcM fungi and tunnel densities were correlated. Our results support a role of rock-eating EcM fungi in plant nutrition and biogeochemical cycles. EcM fungal species-specific differences indicate the need for further research with regard to this variation in functional traits

Complex Patterns of Chromosome 11 Aberrations in Myeloid Malignancies Target CBL, MLL, DDB1 and LMO2

Exome sequencing of primary tumors identifies complex somatic mutation patterns. Assignment of relevance of individual somatic mutations is difficult and poses the next challenge for interpretation of next generation sequencing data. Here we present an approach how exome sequencing in combination with SNP microarray data may identify targets of chromosomal aberrations in myeloid malignancies. The rationale of this approach is that hotspots of chromosomal aberrations might also harbor point mutations in the target genes of deletions, gains or uniparental disomies (UPDs). Chromosome 11 is a frequent target of lesions in myeloid malignancies. Therefore, we studied chromosome 11 in a total of 813 samples from 773 individual patients with different myeloid malignancies by SNP microarrays and complemented the data with exome sequencing in selected cases exhibiting chromosome 11 defects. We found gains, losses and UPDs of chromosome 11 in 52 of the 813 samples (6.4%). Chromosome 11q UPDs frequently associated with mutations of CBL. In one patient the 11qUPD amplified somatic mutations in both CBL and the DNA repair gene DDB1. A duplication within MLL exon 3 was detected in another patient with 11qUPD. We identified several common deleted regions (CDR) on chromosome 11. One of the CDRs associated with de novo acute myeloid leukemia (P=0.013). One patient with a deletion at the LMO2 locus harbored an additional point mutation on the other allele indicating that LMO2 might be a tumor suppressor frequently targeted by 11p deletions. Our chromosome-centered analysis indicates that chromosome 11 contains a number of tumor suppressor genes and that the role of this chromosome in myeloid malignancies is more complex than previously recognized

Targeting the NG2/CSPG4 Proteoglycan Retards Tumour Growth and Angiogenesis in Preclinical Models of GBM and Melanoma

Aberrant expression of the progenitor marker Neuron-glia 2 (NG2/CSPG4) or melanoma proteoglycan on cancer cells and angiogenic vasculature is associated with an aggressive disease course in several malignancies including glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) and melanoma. Thus, we investigated the mechanism of NG2 mediated malignant progression and its potential as a therapeutic target in clinically relevant GBM and melanoma animal models. Xenografting NG2 overexpressing GBM cell lines resulted in increased growth rate, angiogenesis and vascular permeability compared to control, NG2 negative tumours. The effect of abrogating NG2 function was investigated after intracerebral delivery of lentivirally encoded shRNAs targeting NG2 in patient GBM xenografts as well as in established subcutaneous A375 melanoma tumours. NG2 knockdown reduced melanoma proliferation and increased apoptosis and necrosis. Targeting NG2 in two heterogeneous GBM xenografts significantly reduced tumour growth and oedema levels, angiogenesis and normalised vascular function. Vascular normalisation resulted in increased tumour invasion and decreased apoptosis and necrosis. We conclude that NG2 promotes tumour progression by multiple mechanisms and represents an amenable target for cancer molecular therapy

Addressing climate change with behavioral science: a global intervention tournament in 63 countries

Effectively reducing climate change requires marked, global behavior change. However, it is unclear which strategies are most likely to motivate people to change their climate beliefs and behaviors. Here, we tested 11 expert-crowdsourced interventions on four climate mitigation outcomes: beliefs, policy support, information sharing intention, and an effortful tree-planting behavioral task. Across 59,440 participants from 63 countries, the interventions’ effectiveness was small, largely limited to nonclimate skeptics, and differed across outcomes: Beliefs were strengthened mostly by decreasing psychological distance (by 2.3%), policy support by writing a letter to a future-generation member (2.6%), information sharing by negative emotion induction (12.1%), and no intervention increased the more effortful behavior—several interventions even reduced tree planting. Last, the effects of each intervention differed depending on people’s initial climate beliefs. These findings suggest that the impact of behavioral climate interventions varies across audiences and target behaviors