Carbon markets under the Paris Agreement: how can environmental integrity be ensured?

The 2015 Paris Agreement allows countries to use international carbon market mechanisms to achieve their nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Carbon markets provide flexibility where and when emissions are reduced and could thereby lower the cost of mitigating climate change. This can help countries to enhance the ambition of their NDCs. If not designed and implemented robustly, however, carbon markets could lead to higher emissions and increase the cost of mitigating climate change. Ensuring environmental integrity of carbon market mechanisms is thus an important prerequisite for achieving their objectives. This thesis assesses how the environmental integrity of international carbon market mechanisms can be ensured in the new context of the Paris Agreement in which all countries have NDCs. The thesis assesses how environmental integrity could be defined – here it is assumed to be ensured if the engagement in international transfers of carbon market units leads to the same or lower aggregated global emissions –, what the risks for undermining environmental integrity are, what approaches could be used to address these risks, and what this means for the future role of international carbon market mechanisms. The thesis identifies four factors that influence environmental integrity (Chapter 2): The accounting for international transfers of carbon market units; The quality of units generated (i.e. whether the market mechanism ensures that the issuance or transfer of units leads to emission reductions in the transferring country); The ambition and scope of the mitigation target of the transferring country; and Incentives or disincentives for future mitigation action, such as possible disincentives for transferring countries to define future mitigation targets less ambitiously or more narrowly in order to sell more units. Robust accounting is a key prerequisite for ensuring environmental integrity. The diverse scope, metrics, types and timeframe of NDC targets is an important challenge, in particular for avoiding double counting and for ensuring that the accounting for carbon markets units is representative for the mitigation efforts by countries over time. The thesis identifies three ways in which double counting can occur: through double issuance (e.g. by issuing units from the same project under two crediting programs), through double claiming of the same emission reductions by the country where the emission reductions occur and the entity using the carbon market units, and through double use of carbon market units. A key finding is that double counting can also occur in rather indirect ways which can be challenging to identify. Effectively avoiding double counting mainly requires rules for accounting of unit transfers, appropriate design of carbon market mechanisms, and consistent tracking and reporting of units (Chapter 3). Unit quality can, in theory, be ensured through appropriate design of carbon market mechanisms; in practice, existing mechanisms face considerable challenges in ensuring unit quality. The thesis assesses an interesting real-world example of how carbon markets can create perverse incentives and thereby undermine unit quality. It shows that projects abating HFC-23 and SF6 waste gas emissions under the Kyoto Protocol’s Joint Implementation mechanism increased waste gas generation to unprecedented levels as a means to increase credit revenues. Due to these perverse incentives, about two third of the issued credits do not represent actual emission reductions. This case study provides important lessons for carbon markets under the Paris Agreement because Joint Implementation was implemented in countries that had mitigation targets, and thus in a similar context as for countries with NDC targets (Chapter 4). Unit quality is also an important matter for the new Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) adopted by the International Civil Aviation Organization. The scheme requires airline operators to purchase carbon market units to offset the increase in emissions above 2020 levels. It could constitute the single largest demand for carbon market units after 2020. The thesis shows that environmental integrity would be undermined if the scheme allows the unlimited use of credits from already implemented projects. While additionality and the quantification of emission reductions are, in principle, key considerations for unit quality for crediting mechanisms, the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions impact from using credits from already implemented projects is more complex. If the supply of credits considerably exceeds demand, a key consideration for the global GHG emissions impact is whether already implemented projects would continue to reduce GHG emissions even without credit revenues, or whether they are ‘vulnerable’ to discontinuing GHG abatement. A detailed assessment of the status and operating conditions of projects under the Clean Development Mechanism, and their marginal costs of supplying credits, shows that most projects would continue GHG abatement even if they cannot sell credits. If CORSIA allows airline operators the unlimited use of offset credits from these projects, this will not only undermine its environmental objectives but also lead to continued low carbon prices, and thus neither offer incentives for new investments nor lead to any significant revenues for already implemented projects. The thesis recommends limiting eligibility under CORSIA to new or ‘vulnerable’ projects (Chapter 5). Unit quality is also a key consideration when linking emissions trading systems (ETSs). As linking of ETSs faces several practical and political challenges and risks, including with regard to whether allowances have ‘quality’ and whether linking provides incentives or disincentives to enhance the ambition of caps, policy-makers are considering also restricted forms of linking ETSs. The thesis uses a simple economic model and three criteria – abatement outcome, economic implications, and feasibility – to assess three different options for implementing restricted linking of ETSs: quotas, exchange rates, or discount rates. The analysis shows that quotas can enhance cost-effectiveness relative to no linking and allow policy-makers to retain control on the extent of unit flows. Exchange rates could enhance abatement and economic benefits or have unintended adverse implications for cost-effectiveness and total abatement, depending on how rates are set. Due to information asymmetries between the regulated entities and policy-makers setting the exchange rate, and uncertainties about future developments, setting exchange rates in a manner that avoids such unintended consequences could prove difficult. Discount rates, in contrast, can ensure that both cost-effectiveness and total abatement are enhanced. The thesis recommends the consideration of quotas or discount rates, but to refrain from using exchange rates, due to the environmental integrity risks (Chapter 6). The varying scope and ambition of current NDC targets, and possible disincentives to broaden their scope and enhance their ambition, could be addressed by facilitating the adoption of ambitious and economy-wide mitigation targets and by preventing the transfer of carbon market units in situations of high environmental integrity risks. This latter approach could be implemented through eligibility criteria or limits on the generation, transfer or use of carbon market units. Limits could in particular address the risk that some countries have mitigation targets that correspond to higher levels of emissions than independent projections of their likely emissions. If such ‘hot air’ can be transferred to other countries, it could increase aggregated emissions and create a perverse incentive for countries not to enhance the ambition of future mitigation targets. The thesis proposes a typology for such limits, explores key design options, and tests different types of limits in the context of fifteen countries. The analysis indicates that limits to international transfers could, if designed appropriately, prevent most of the hot air contained in current mitigation targets from being transferred, but also involve trade-offs between different policy objectives (Chapter 7). The thesis concludes by discussing how four strategies to mitigate environmental integrity risks – robust accounting, ensuring unit quality, facilitating economy-wide and ambitious mitigation targets, and restricting international transfers – could be implemented under the Paris Agreement and CORSIA (see Figure S-1). Crediting mechanisms pose higher risks for environmental integrity than linking of ETSs and should therefore have a limited role in the future. International oversight can reduce the risks to environmental integrity to some extent. Acquiring countries could also reduce risks by only acquiring units from countries that also have ambitious NDC targets. Overall, policy-makers should not regard carbon market approaches as the one and only ‘silver-bullet’ to mitigating climate change but carefully assess what policy instrument or mix of instruments is best suited achieve and balance different policy objectives, in particular in light of the rapid transition that is necessary to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement (Chapter 8)

The Origin of B-Type Runaway Stars: Non-LTE Abundances as a Diagnostic

There are two accepted mechanisms to explain the origin of runaway OB-type stars: the Binary Supernova Scenario (BSS), and the Cluster Ejection Scenario (CES). In the former, a supernova explosion within a close binary ejects the secondary star, while in the latter close multi-body interactions in a dense cluster cause one or more of the stars to be ejected from the region at high velocity. Both mechanisms have the potential to affect the surface composition of the runaway star. TLUSTY non-LTE model atmosphere calculations have been used to determine atmospheric parameters and carbon, nitrogen, magnesium and silicon abundances for a sample of B-type runaways. These same analytical tools were used by Hunter et al. (2009) for their analysis of 50 B-type open cluster Galactic stars (i.e. non-runaways). Effective temperatures were deduced using the silicon-ionization balance technique, surface gravities from Balmer line profiles and microturbulent velocities derived using the Si spectrum. The runaways show no obvious abundance anomalies when compared with stars in the open clusters. The runaways do show a spread in composition which almost certainly reflects the Galactic abundance gradient and a range in the birthplaces of the runaways in the Galactic disk. Since the observed Galactic abundance gradients of C, N, Mg and Si are of a similar magnitude, the abundance ratios (e.g., N/Mg) are, as obtained, essentially uniform across the sample

Lessons learned from the first round of applications by carbon-offsetting programs for eligibility under CORSIA

In 2016, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) adopted the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA). The scheme requires participating airline operators to purchase carbon offset credits to compensate for the increase in their carbon dioxide emissions from international flights above 2019/2020 levels. This paper synthesizes key lessons learned from an assessment of the first 14 applications of carbon-offsetting programs for eligibility under CORSIA, focussing on five out of eight eligibility criteria established by ICAO. The evaluation shows that the degree to which the applicants satisfy the ICAO requirements differs substantially. Some applicants hardly meet any of the requirements and may not even be considered carbon-offsetting programs. However, there are also notable differences in relation to specific criteria. With regard to ensuring additionality and establishing baselines, key shortcomings are that many programmes apply approaches that do not guarantee environmental integrity of the generated credits. Not all programs regularly reassess whether their approaches are still appropriate in the light of new circumstances, such as lower costs of renewable energy technologies, and programs may still need to update their approaches for assessing additionality and establishing baselines in the light of the new context of the Paris Agreement. Some programs also do not require an independent third-party assessment of baseline methodologies. Most programs do not yet have procedures in place or planned for avoiding double counting between CORSIA and nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. However, a few programs are in the process of implementing detailed procedures, based on voluntary Guidelines developed by a multistakeholder group. To address non-permanence, most programs use "buffer" approaches. The duration for which non-permanence is ensured, the avoidance of moral hazard risks of intentional reversals, and the "capitalization" of buffers vary considerably among programs. The Clean Development Mechanism's provisions to address non-permanence were in principle robust but do no longer work, given that the Kyoto Protocol will not have a third commitment period. Lastly, only two programs have a process in place which requires the assessment of environmental and social risks, the adoption of safeguards, and the monitoring and reporting on risks. The paper also identifies several cross-cutting issues. First, we recommend that ICAO only approve programs as eligible for CORSIA once programs have amended their standards and procedures to fulfil all criteria. Second, the evaluation identified that ICAO still needs to clarify several matters that are not explicitly addressed in current criteria, such as what global warming potentials programs should use to convert non-CO2 emissions into CO2 equivalents; whether offset credits will be eligible if the host country does not participate in the Paris Agreement; with what type of international mitigation targets double counting must be avoided; and the treatment of emission reductions not covered by NDCs. Clear international rules on these matters would greatly facilitate the approval of programs and the implementation of CORSIA. Third, we recommend that ICAO adopts a transparent procedure for the initial approval, ongoing supervision, re-approval, suspension and termination of eligibility of programs. This procedure could also address the insufficient level of information in current applications, by requiring programs to provide more detailed information. Lastly, we recommend that the Parties to the Paris Agreement include specific provisions in the international rules on Article 6 for how countries should account for offset credits used under CORSIA

The last Athenian decrees honouring Ephebes

The Athenian Council and/or Assembly regularly inscribed decrees in the Agora honouring the young men, or ephebes, who had performed national service, from the Chremonidean War (266/5 BC) through to the Augustan period. The last five of these monuments post-date the sack of Athens by Sulla in 86 BC, and a full set of the texts has not been available since 1916 (IG II2), since when the progress of scholarship has made it almost impossible for specialists, let alone non-specialist researchers and students, to obtain an overview of these important documents. This paper accompanies the publication on AIO of new Greek texts, based on autopsy, and annotated English translations, of all five monuments. For ease of future reference it includes complete Greek texts of the two most substantial sets of decrees, IG II2 1039 +, honouring the ephebes of 80/79 BC and their officers, and 1043 +, honouring the ephebes of 38/7 or 37/6 BC and their officers, with textual notes. Though most of the fragments of post-Sullan ephebic decrees are still in Athens, one (IG II2 1042 fr. b) is in the British Museum, and to accompany this paper we are also publishing a short video about this inscription on the AIO Youtube channel

The last Athenian decrees honouring Ephebes

The Athenian Council and/or Assembly regularly inscribed decrees in the Agora honouring the young men, or ephebes, who had performed national service, from the Chremonidean War (266/5 BC) through to the Augustan period. The last five of these monuments post-date the sack of Athens by Sulla in 86 BC, and a full set of the texts has not been available since 1916 (IG II2), since when the progress of scholarship has made it almost impossible for specialists, let alone non-specialist researchers and students, to obtain an overview of these important documents. This paper accompanies the publication on AIO of new Greek texts, based on autopsy, and annotated English translations, of all five monuments. For ease of future reference it includes complete Greek texts of the two most substantial sets of decrees, IG II2 1039 +, honouring the ephebes of 80/79 BC and their officers, and 1043 +, honouring the ephebes of 38/7 or 37/6 BC and their officers, with textual notes. Though most of the fragments of post-Sullan ephebic decrees are still in Athens, one (IG II2 1042 fr. b) is in the British Museum, and to accompany this paper we are also publishing a short video about this inscription on the AIO Youtube channel

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to physical inactivity in South Africa in 2000

Objectives. To quantify the burden of disease attributable to physical inactivity in persons 15 years or older, by age group and sex, in South Africa for 2000. Design. The global comparative risk assessment (CRA) methodology of the World Health Organization was followed to estimate the disease burden attributable to physical inactivity. Levels of physical activity for South Africa were obtained from the World Health Survey 2003. A theoretical minimum risk exposure of zero, associated outcomes, relative risks, and revised burden of disease estimates were used to calculate population-attributable fractions and the burden attributed to physical inactivity. Monte Carlo simulation-modelling techniques were used for the uncertainty analysis. Setting. South Africa. Subjects. Adults ≥ 15 years. Outcome measures. Deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from ischaemic heart disease, ischaemic stroke, breast cancer, colon cancer, and type 2 diabetes mellitus. Results. Overall in adults ≥ 15 years in 2000, 30% of ischaemic heart disease, 27% of colon cancer, 22% of ischaemic stroke, 20% of type 2 diabetes, and 17% of breast cancer were attributable to physical inactivity. Physical inactivity was estimated to have caused 17 037 (95% uncertainty interval 11 394 - 20 407), or 3.3% (95% uncertainty interval 2.2 - 3.9%) of all deaths in 2000, and 176 252 (95% uncertainty interval 133 733 - 203 628) DALYs, or 1.1% (95% uncertainty interval 0.8 - 1.3%) of all DALYs in 2000. Conclusions. Compared with other regions and the global average, South African adults have a particularly high prevalence of physical inactivity. In terms of attributable deaths, physical inactivity ranked 9th compared with other risk factors, and 12th in terms of DALYs. There is a clear need to assess why South Africans are particularly inactive, and to ensure that physical activity/inactivity is addressed as a national health priority

Quantum Entanglement and fixed point Hopf bifurcation

We present the qualitative differences in the phase transitions of the mono-mode Dicke model in its integrable and chaotic versions. We show that a first order phase transition occurs in the integrable case whereas a second order in the chaotic one. This difference is also reflected in the classical limit: for the integrable case the stable fixed point in phase space suffers a bifurcation of Hopf type whereas for the second one a pitchfork type bifurcation has been reported

Enabling quantitative data analysis through e-infrastructures

This paper discusses how quantitative data analysis in the social sciences can engage with and exploit an e-Infrastructure. We highlight how a number of activities which are central to quantitative data analysis, referred to as ‘data management’, can benefit from e-infrastructure support. We conclude by discussing how these issues are relevant to the DAMES (Data Management through e-Social Science) research Node, an ongoing project that aims to develop e-Infrastructural resources for quantitative data analysis in the social sciences

New results on GP Com

We present high resolution optical and UV spectra of the 46 min orbital period, helium binary, GP Com. Our data contains simultaneous photometric correction which confirms the flaring behaviour observed in previous optical and UV data. In this system all lines show a triple peaked structure where the outer two peaks are associated with the accretion disc around the compact object. The main aim of this paper is to constrain the origin of the central peak, also called ``central spike''. We find that the central spike contributes to the flare spectra indicating that its origin is probably the compact object. We also detect that the central spike moves with orbital phase following an S-wave pattern. The radial velocity semiamplitude of the S-wave is ~10 km/s indicating that its origin is near the centre of mass of the system, which in this case lies very close to the white dwarf. Our resolution is higher than that of previous data which allows us to resolve structure in the central peak of the line. The central spike in three of the HeI lines shows another peak blueshifted with respect to the main peak. We propose that one of the peaks is a neutral helium forbidden transition excited in a high electron density region. This forbidden transition is associated with the permitted one (the stronger peak in two of the lines). The presence of a high electron density region again favours the white dwarf as their origin.Comment: 14 pages, 16 figures. Accepted for publication in A&

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to physical inactivity in South Africa in 2000

Objectives. \ud \ud To quantify the burden of disease attributable to physical inactivity in persons 15 years or older, by age group and sex, in South Africa for 2000. \ud \ud Design. \ud \ud The global comparative risk assessment (CRA) methodology of the World Health Organization was followed to estimate the disease burden attributable to physical inactivity. Levels of physical activity for South Africa were obtained from the World Health Survey 2003. A theoretical minimum risk exposure of zero, associated outcomes, relative risks, and revised burden of disease estimates were used to calculate population-attributable fractions and the burden attributed to physical inactivity. Monte Carlo simulation-modelling techniques were used for the uncertainty analysis. \ud \ud Setting. \ud \ud South Africa. \ud \ud Subjects. \ud \ud Adults ≥ 15 years. \ud \ud Outcome measures.\ud \ud Deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from ischaemic heart disease, ischaemic stroke, breast cancer, colon cancer, and type 2 diabetes mellitus. \ud \ud Results. \ud \ud Overall in adults ≥ 15 years in 2000, 30% of ischaemic heart disease, 27% of colon cancer, 22% of ischaemic stroke, 20% of type 2 diabetes, and 17% of breast cancer were attributable to physical inactivity. Physical inactivity was estimated to have caused 17 037 (95% uncertainty interval 11 394 - 20 407), or 3.3% (95% uncertainty interval 2.2 - 3.9%) of all deaths in 2000, and 176 252 (95% uncertainty interval 133 733 - 203 628) DALYs, or 1.1% (95% uncertainty interval 0.8 - 1.3%) of all DALYs in 2000. \ud \ud Conclusions. \ud \ud Compared with other regions and the global average, South African adults have a particularly high prevalence of physical inactivity. In terms of attributable deaths, physical inactivity ranked 9th compared with other risk factors, and 12th in terms of DALYs. There is a clear need to assess why South Africans are particularly inactive, and to ensure that physical activity/inactivity is addressed as a national health priority