The Domestic Politics of International Cooperation: Germany and the European Debt Crisis

AbstractInternational cooperation can fail even though governments have no distributional conflicts or incentives to free-ride, face no informational or credibility problems, and even agree on the policies that need to be implemented. Germany's refusal to cooperate with the Eurogroup members on the Greek bailout in 2010 until the crisis threatened to derail the entire Eurozone is puzzling in that regard especially because Germany is the main beneficiary of the euro. It was alleged at the time that this was a dilatory tactic designed to postpone a domestically unpopular decision until after crucial regional elections. But why would voters allow themselves to be misled like that? And why did Merkel agree to the bailout before the elections took place? To analyze how citizen preferences affect international cooperation, we develop a game-theoretic model of the four-way interaction between two governments that must coordinate a response to a crisis affecting both countries but who also must face the polls domestically with an electorate that might be uncertain whether a response is necessary. We find that, paradoxically, governments that stand to receive the greatest benefits from international cooperation face the greatest obstacles to implementing the required policies even when voters would want them to. We show how the model can rationalize Merkel's electoral strategy and why her party suffered at the polls when the strategy went off the rails.</jats:p

The Tail of the HI Mass Function

The contribution of extragalactic objects with HI masses below $10^8 M_\odot$ to the HI mass function remains uncertain. Several aspects of the detection of low-mass sources in HI surveys are not always considered, and as a result different analysis techniques yield widely different estimates for their number density. It is suggested at one extreme that the number density of galaxies follows a shallow Schechter power-law slope, and at the other extreme that it follows a steep faint-end rise like that found for field optical sources. Here we examine a variety of selection effects, issues of completeness, and consequences of LSS. We derive results for the large Arecibo Dual Beam Survey which indicate that the field mass function does rise steeply, while within the Virgo Cluster environs, the slope appears to be much shallower. Dependence on the local density of galaxies may partially explain differences between surveys.Comment: 8 pages, presented at Mapping the Hidden Universe: The Universe in HI. eds Kraan-Korteweg, Henning, Andernac

ROC-Based Model Estimation for Forecasting Large Changes in Demand

Forecasting for large changes in demand should benefit from different estimation than that used for estimating mean behavior. We develop a multivariate forecasting model designed for detecting the largest changes across many time series. The model is fit based upon a penalty function that maximizes true positive rates along a relevant false positive rate range and can be used by managers wishing to take action on a small percentage of products likely to change the most in the next time period. We apply the model to a crime dataset and compare results to OLS as the basis for comparisons as well as models that are promising for exceptional demand forecasting such as quantile regression, synthetic data from a Bayesian model, and a power loss model. Using the Partial Area Under the Curve (PAUC) metric, our results show statistical significance, a 35 percent improvement over OLS, and at least a 20 percent improvement over competing methods. We suggest management with an increasing number of products to use our method for forecasting large changes in conjunction with typical magnitude-based methods for forecasting expected demand

The design and construction of the CAD-1 airship

The background history, design philosophy and Computer application as related to the design of the envelope shape, stress calculations and flight trajectories of the CAD-1 airship, now under construction by Canadian Airship Development Corporation are reported. A three-phase proposal for future development of larger cargo carrying airships is included

On the occurrence of Berezinskii-Kosterlitz-Thouless behavior in highly anisotropic cuprate superconductors

The conflicting observations in the highly anisotropic Bi2Sr2CaCu2O8+x, vidence for BKT behavior emerging from magnetization data and smeared 3D-xy behavior, stemming form the temperature dependence of the magnetic in-plane penetration depth are traced back to the rather small ratio, gsic+/gsic-=0.45, between the c-axis correlation length probed above (+) and below (-) Tc, and the comparatively large anisotropy. The latter leads to critical amplitudes gsic0+,-which are substantially smaller than the distance between two CuO2 double layers. In combination with gsic+/gsic-=0.45 and in contrast to the situation below Tc the c-axis correlation length gsic exceeds the distance between two CuO2 double layers very close to Tc only. Below this narrow temperature regime where 3D-xy fluctuations dominate, there is then an extended temperature regime where the units with two CuO2 double layers are nearly uncoupled so that 2D thermal fluctuations dominate and BKT features are observable.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

Gas and Stars in an HI-Selected Galaxy Sample

We present the results of a J-band study of the HI-selected Arecibo Dual-Beam Survey and Arecibo Slice Survey galaxy samples using the 2 Micron All-Sky Survey data. We find that these galaxies span a wide range of stellar and gas properties. However, despite the diversity within the samples, we find a very tight correlation between luminosity and size in the J-band, similar to that we previously found (Rosenberg & Schneider 2003) between the HI mass and size. We also find that the correlation between the baryonic mass and the J-band diameter is even tighter than between the baryonic mass and the rotational velocity.Comment: AJ in press, 17 pages (including tables and figures) + 6 additional jpg figure

Magnetic field induced finite size effect in type-II superconductors

We explore the occurrence of a magnetic field induced finite size effect on the specific heat and correlation lengths of anisotropic type-II superconductors near the zero field transition temperature Tc. Since near the zero field transition thermal fluctuations are expected to dominate and with increasing field strength these fluctuations become one dimensional, whereupon the effect of fluctuations increases, it appears unavoidable to account for thermal fluctuations. Invoking the scaling theory of critical phenomena it is shown that the specific heat data of nearly optimally doped YBa2Cu3O7-x are inconsistent with the traditional mean-field and lowest Landau level predictions of a continuous superconductor to normal state transition along an upper critical field Hc2(T). On the contrary, we observe agreement with a magnetic field induced finite size effect, whereupon even the correlation length longitudinal to the applied field H cannot grow beyond the limiting magnetic length L(H). It arises because with increasing magnetic field the density of vortex lines becomes greater, but this cannot continue indefinitely. L(H) is then roughly set on the proximity of vortex lines by the overlapping of their cores. Thus, the shift and the rounding of the specific heat peak in an applied field is traced back to a magnetic field induced finite size effect in the correlation length longitudinal to the applied field.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figure

Generalized Robba rings

We prove that any projective coadmissible module over the locally analytic distribution algebra of a compact $p$-adic Lie group is finitely generated. In particular, the category of coadmissible modules does not have enough projectives. In the Appendix a "generalized Robba ring" for uniform pro-$p$ groups is constructed which naturally contains the locally analytic distribution algebra as a subring. The construction uses the theory of generalized microlocalization of quasi-abelian normed algebras that is also developed there. We equip this generalized Robba ring with a self-dual locally convex topology extending the topology on the distribution algebra. This is used to show some results on coadmissible modules.Comment: with an appendix by Peter Schneider; revised; new titl