Modelos epidemiológicos com quarentena voluntária

Em epidemias, a estratégia de distanciamento social é fundamental para reduzir o contágio da infecção e consequentemente atenuar a disseminação da doença, o que é importante, por exemplo, para não colapsar o sistema de saúde em hospitais. A percepção de risco da população frente a doença é um parâmetro que está associado a ideia das pessoas adotarem ou não a estratégia do distanciamento social, a fim de não se tornarem agentes infectados. Neste trabalho, propomos dois modelos para explicar o efeito da dinâmica de quarentena na ocorrência de epidemias em uma rede quadrada de agentes. Foi utilizado a teoria de jogos para governar a estratégia de adoção ou não do isolamento, e o modelo epidemiológico (SIR) para inserir a disseminação da doença, a evolução temporal desse sistema foi estudada pelo método de Monte Carlo. Em ambos modelos, a estratégia de adesão a quarentena pelos indivíduos suscetíveis levou em conta a percepção da fração de agentes infectados na rede. No primeiro modelo, o jogo dos payoffs ocorreu apenas pela interação em pares de vizinhos suscetíveis (baixa percepção local), já para o segundo a vizinhança de Von Neumann foi considerada e uma nova rede payoff foi elaborada, considerando o custo dos indivíduos suscetíveis permanecerem quarentenados frente aos agentes recuperados e infectados (alta percepção local). Nossos resultados mostraram diferentes fases de epidemia conforme a percepção de risco definida, e obtemos as recorrentes ondas de infecção como mostrado nos cenários epidêmicos. Foi observado que clusters de agentes suscetíveis quarentenados e não quarentenados foram formados, cercados por indivíduos recuperados, na fase das recursivas ondas infecção. O efeito espacial, devido a dinâmica entre os vizinhos, proporcionou que as ondas de infecção fossem deslocadas uma das outras a cada nova simulação.In epidemics events, the strategy of social distancing is essential to reduce the spread of infection and consequently mitigate the spread of the disease, which is important, for example, in order to not collapse the health system in hospitals. The population perception of risk in face of the disease is a parameter that is associated with the idea of people adopt or not the strategy of social distancing, with the objective not to become infected agents. In our work, we propose two models to explain the quarantine dynamic on the occurrence of epidemics in a square network of agents. The game theory was used to govern the strategy of adopting isolation, and the epidemiological model was insert to spread the disease, the temporal evolution of this system was explain by the Monte Carlo method. In both models, the strategy of adherence to quarantine by susceptible individuals took into account the perception of the fraction of infected agents in the network. In the first model, the game payoff occurred only through the interaction in pairs of susceptible neighbors (low local perception), while for the second the Von Neumann neighborhood was considered and a new payoff table was designed considering the cost of susceptible individuals remaining quarantined against recovered and infected agents (high local perception). Our results showed different phases of the epidemic according to the defined risk perception, and we obtain the recurrent waves of infection as shown in the epidemic scenarios. It was observed that clusters of quarantined and non-quarantined susceptible agents were formed, surrounded by recovered individuals, in the recursive infection wave phase. The spatial effect, due to the dynamics between the neighbors, shown that the waves of infection were displaced from each other ever in a new simulation

EXPERIENCES ON IMPROVED CAVITY PREPARATION CYCLES WITH A VISION ON INDUSTRIALIZATION OF THE XFEL CAVITY PREPARATION

Abstract Within the last decade the production and preparation of superconducting resonators became more and more stable at DESY. Two cycles for the final surface preparation, the final surface removal by electro polishing (EP) and the final surface removal by a short buffered chemical polishing (BCP flash) are the baseline of cavity surface preparation at DESY. Basing on the positive development overtime and in view of industrialization of the processes for the XFEL project, a proposal for a reduced number of work steps was presented on the SRF 2007 workshop in Beijin

Double layer SiO2–TiO2 sol–gel thin films on glass for antireflection, antifogging, and UV recoverable self-cleaning

Double layer thin films, mechanically stable and adhering to glass, were produced through the sol–gel process, using tetraethyl orthosilicate and titanium butoxide as precursors. The refractive index of the titania and silica– titania composite layers were typically 2.1 and 1.7, and their physical thicknesses were approximately 65 nm and 81 nm, respectively, as determined by ellipsometry. These optical constants allowed attainment of quarterwave optical thicknesses at the center of the visible spectrum (550 nm) as designed, with an increase of 3.4% in transmittance. The nanometric surface roughness, measured by optical profilometry, was effective to decrease light scattering and water contact angles to below 10◦ . As novelty in dip-coated sol–gel films, superhydrophilicity for self-cleaning, antifogging, and antireflection in the mid-visible spectrum were simultaneously attained with durability of 9 weeks in the dark. Further application of UV light allowed regeneration of contact angles for self-cleaning

UPDATE ON THE JRA1 PROJECT RESULTS OF ELECTRO-POLISHING OF MULTI-CELL SUPER CONDUCTING RESONATORS

Abstract Under the contract RII3-CT-2003-506395 of the European Union improvement on the electro-polishing (EP) of multi cell resonators are made. Several methods to improve resonator performances are studied. Improvement of electrode shape, simulated by numerical computer codes and test set ups are presented. With respect to reproducible cavity performances and industrialization of the EP process, a study for quality control by acid management is started. An automated EP system is developed at INFN Legnaro / Italy and within the collaboration of Legnaro and DESY this automated steering will be integrated into the DESY EP facility. We will report on the status of the WP 5.2.2.and the progress of the transfer of the automated E

Calcaneal Fractures in Non-Racing Dogs and Cats:Complications, Outcome and Associated Risk Factors

Objective To estimate the prevalence of complications and describe the outcome associated with calcaneal fractures in non‐racing dogs and in cats. Study Design Retrospective multicenter clinical cohort study. Animals Medical records of client‐owned dogs and cats (2004–2013). Methods Medical records were searched and 50 animals with calcaneal fractures were included for analysis. Complications were recorded and an outcome score applied to each fracture. Associations between putative risk factors and both major complications, and final outcome scores were explored. Results Complications occurred in 27/50 fractures (61%) including 23 major and 4 minor complications. At final follow‐up, 4 animals (10%) were sound, 27 (64%) had either intermittent or consistent mild weight‐bearing lameness, 7 (17%) had moderate weight‐bearing lameness, and 1 (2%) had severe weight‐bearing lameness. Fractures managed using plates and screws had a lower risk of complications than fractures managed using pin and tension band wire, lag or positional screws or a combination of these techniques (Relative risk 0.16, 95% CI 0.02–1.02, P=.052). Non‐sighthounds had reduced odds of a poorer outcome score than sighthounds (Odds ratio 0.11, 95% CI 0.02–0.50, P=.005) and fractures with major complications had 13 times the odds of a poorer outcome score (Odds ratio 13.4, 95% CI 3.6–59.5, P<.001). Conclusion This study reports a high occurrence of complications associated with calcaneal fracture stabilization in non‐racing dogs and in cats, and a poorer outcome score was more likely in animals with complications. A more guarded prognosis should be given to owners of non‐racing dogs or cats with calcaneal fractures than previously applied to racing Greyhounds with calcaneal fractures