Exploring Planets with Directed Aerial Robot Explorers

Global Aerospace Corporation (GAC) is developing a revolutionary system architecture for exploration of planetary atmospheres and surfaces from atmospheric altitudes. The work is supported by the NASA Institute for Advanced Concepts (NIAC). The innovative system architecture relies upon the use of Directed Aerial Robot Explorers (DAREs), which essentially are long-duration-flight autonomous balloons with trajectory control capabilities that can deploy swarms of miniature probes over multiple target areas. Balloon guidance capabilities will offer unprecedented opportunities in high-resolution, targeted observations of both atmospheric and surface phenomena. Multifunctional microprobes will be deployed from the balloons once over the target areas, and perform a multitude of functions, such as atmospheric profiling or surface exploration, relaying data back to the balloons or an orbiter. This architecture will enable low-cost, low-energy, long-term global exploration of planetary atmospheres and surfaces. This paper focuses on a conceptual analysis of the DARE architecture capabilities and science applications for Venus, Titan and Jupiter. Preliminary simulations with simplified atmospheric models show that a relatively small trajectory control wing can enable global coverage of the atmospheres of Venus and Titan by a single balloon over a 100-day mission. This presents unique opportunities for global in situ sampling of the atmospheric composition and dynamics, atmospheric profiling over multiple sites with small dropsondes and targeted deployment of surface microprobes. At Jupiter, path guidance capabilities of the DARE platforms permits targeting localized regions of interest, such as "hot spots" or the Great Red Spot. A single DARE platform at Jupiter can sample major types of the atmospheric flows (zones and belts) over a 100-day mission. Observations by deployable probes would reveal if the differences exist in radiative, dynamic and compositional environments at these sites

Mars Exploration with Directed Aerial Robot Explorers

Global Aerospace Corporation (GAC) is developing a revolutionary system architecture for exploration of planetary atmospheres and surfaces from atmospheric altitudes. The work is supported by the NASA Institute for Advanced Concepts (NIAC). The innovative system architecture relies upon the use of Directed Aerial Robot Explorers (DAREs), which essentially are long‐duration‐flight autonomous balloons with trajectory control capabilities that can deploy swarms of miniature probes over multiple target areas. Balloon guidance capabilities will offer unprecedented opportunities in high‐resolution, targeted observations of both atmospheric and surface phenomena. Multifunctional microprobes will be deployed from the balloons when over the target areas, and perform a multitude of functions, such as atmospheric profiling or surface exploration, relaying data back to the balloons or an orbiter. This architecture will enable low‐cost, low‐energy, long‐term global exploration of planetary atmospheres and surfaces. A conceptual analysis of DARE capabilities and science applications for Mars is presented. Initial results of simulations indicate that a relatively small trajectory control wing can significantly change planetary balloon flight paths, especially during summer seasons in Polar Regions. This opens new possibilities for high‐resolution observations of crustal magnetic anomalies, polar layered terrain, polar clouds, dust storms at the edges of the Polar caps and of seasonal variability of volatiles in the atmosphere

Using the Value of Information to improve conservation decision making.

Conservation decisions are challenging, not only because they often involve difficult conflicts among outcomes that people value, but because our understanding of the natural world and our effects on it is fraught with uncertainty. Value of Information (VoI) methods provide an approach for understanding and managing uncertainty from the standpoint of the decision maker. These methods are commonly used in other fields (e.g. economics, public health) and are increasingly used in biodiversity conservation. This decision-analytical approach can identify the best management alternative to select where the effectiveness of interventions is uncertain, and can help to decide when to act and when to delay action until after further research. We review the use of VoI in the environmental domain, reflect on the need for greater uptake of VoI, particularly for strategic conservation planning, and suggest promising areas for new research. We also suggest common reporting standards as a means of increasing the leverage of this powerful tool. The environmental science, ecology and biodiversity categories of the Web of Knowledge were searched using the terms 'Value of Information,' 'Expected Value of Perfect Information,' and the abbreviation 'EVPI.' Google Scholar was searched with the same terms, and additionally the terms decision and biology, biodiversity conservation, fish, or ecology. We identified 1225 papers from these searches. Included studies were limited to those that showed an application of VoI in biodiversity conservation rather than simply describing the method. All examples of use of VOI were summarised regarding the application of VoI, the management objectives, the uncertainties, the models used, how the objectives were measured, and the type of VoI. While the use of VoI appears to be on the increase in biodiversity conservation, the reporting of results is highly variable, which can make it difficult to understand the decision context and which uncertainties were considered. Moreover, it was unclear if, and how, the papers informed management and policy interventions, which is why we suggest a range of reporting standards that would aid the use of VoI. The use of VoI in conservation settings is at an early stage. There are opportunities for broader applications, not only for species-focussed management problems, but also for setting local or global research priorities for biodiversity conservation, making funding decisions, or designing or improving protected area networks and management. The long-term benefits of applying VoI methods to biodiversity conservation include a more structured and decision-focused allocation of resources to research

Approximation of Bayesian Nash Equilibrium

We de\u85ne a new concept of Constrained Strategic Equilibrium (CSE) for Bayesian games. We show that a sequence of CSEs approximates an equilibrium under standard conditions. We also provide an algorithm to implement the CSE approximation method numerically in a broad class of Bayesian games, including games without analytically tractable solutions. Finally, we illustrate the exibility of the CSE approximation with a series of auction examples, including a complex multi-unit auction

Expression of apoptosis regulatory proteins of the Bcl-2 family and p53 in primary resected non-small-cell lung cancer

Proteins of the Bcl-2 family as well as p53 are important regulators of apoptosis. Alterations in the expression of these proteins can contribute to the formation of cancer, as well as influence tumour response to chemo- and radiotherapy. We used antibodies specific for the human Bcl-2, Mcl-1, Bax, Bak and p53 proteins to examine the expression of these apoptosis-regulating genes in 49 archival specimens of patients with radically resected non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Tumour cells containing immunostaining for the antiapoptotic proteins Bcl-2 and Mcl-1 were present in 31% and 58% of the cases evaluated, respectively, whereas immunopositivity for the proapoptotic proteins Bax and Bak was found in 47% and 58% of the samples. p53 immunopositivity was detected in 61% of the samples. The expression of Bcl-2 and p53 and the expression of Mcl-1 and Bax showed a positive association (P= 0.02 and P= 0.06 respectively), whereas the expression of Bax was inversely related to p53 (P= 0.008). The expression of Bcl-2 had a negative influence on relapse-free survival in this population of primary resected NSCLC patients (P= 0.02). The expression of p53 and Bcl-2 was significantly associated with metastasis-free survival (P< 0.01). Only patients with p53-positive tumours developed metastases during the follow-up period. Our results establish the frequent expression of the Bcl-2 family proteins Bcl-2, Mcl-1, Bax and Bak in NSCLC. It can be expected that Bcl-2 family members have no straightforward impact on clinical outcome in this disease because their interactions in the regulation of apoptosis are complex. © 1999 Cancer Research Campaig

Personal probabilities of probabilities

By definition, the subjective probability distribution of a random event is revealed by the (‘rational’) subject's choice between bets — a view expressed by F. Ramsey, B. De Finetti, L. J. Savage and traceable to E. Borel and, it can be argued, to T. Bayes. Since hypotheses are not observable events, no bet can be made, and paid off, on a hypothesis. The subjective probability distribution of hypotheses (or of a parameter, as in the current ‘Bayesian’ statistical literature) is therefore a figure of speech, an ‘as if’, justifiable in the limit. Given a long sequence of previous observations, the subjective posterior probabilities of events still to be observed are derived by using a mathematical expression that would approximate the subjective probability distribution of hypotheses, if these could be bet on. This position was taken by most, but not all, respondents to a ‘Round Robin’ initiated by J. Marschak after M. H. De-Groot's talk on Stopping Rules presented at the UCLA Interdisciplinary Colloquium on Mathematics in Behavioral Sciences. Other participants: K. Borch, H. Chernoif, R. Dorfman, W. Edwards, T. S. Ferguson, G. Graves, K. Miyasawa, P. Randolph, L. J. Savage, R. Schlaifer, R. L. Winkler. Attention is also drawn to K. Borch's article in this issue.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/43847/1/11238_2004_Article_BF00169102.pd