ALADYN - a spatially explicit, allelic model for simulating adaptive dynamics

Peer reviewe

Unusually warm winter seasons may compromise the performance of current phenology models : Predicting bloom dates in young apple trees with PhenoFlex

Phenology models are crucial tools for assessing climate change impacts in forestry, ecology and agriculture. Such models are typically calibrated with observational or experimental data and validated with a set of independent observations. While there have been extensive discussions about validation approaches, systematic studies assessing the effects of the calibration data on the predictive performance of the fitted model are scarce. We evaluated the impact of marginal seasons in the calibration data set on the predictive power of an integrated modeling framework (PhenoFlex) that was recently proposed to predict spring phenology in temperate trees. We calibrated PhenoFlex with phenology records of apple trees from a multi-season experiment (59 experimental seasons) that included five unusually warm winter seasons. For comparison, we excluded these marginal seasons in a second version of the analysis. We fitted the 12 model parameters to data, assessed model performance using a common validation data set and evaluated the chill and heat responses during dormancy for both versions. Despite high overall accuracy, our results indicated a better model performance (Root Mean Square Errors of 2.3 versus 5.5 days) when excluding the marginal seasons. We observed a similar shape for the chill response curve across versions but a greater chill effectiveness when including the marginal seasons. Fitted parameters suggest a hard drop in heat efficiency beyond the optimum temperature when including the marginal seasons, probably highlighting the need for more moderate conditions during model calibration. Our results demonstrate a good performance of PhenoFlex when calibration and validation data were comparable, but they also indicate risks involved in using the framework to project phenology under conditions that differ strongly from those used for calibration. Further evaluation and validation under experimentally or naturally occurring warm conditions may improve our understanding of the response of temperate trees to mild winter conditions

Limited evolutionary rescue of locally adapted populations facing climate change

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

An Open Source Simulation Model for Soil and Sediment Bioturbation

Bioturbation is one of the most widespread forms of ecological engineering and has significant implications for the structure and functioning of ecosystems, yet our understanding of the processes involved in biotic mixing remains incomplete. One reason is that, despite their value and utility, most mathematical models currently applied to bioturbation data tend to neglect aspects of the natural complexity of bioturbation in favour of mathematical simplicity. At the same time, the abstract nature of these approaches limits the application of such models to a limited range of users. Here, we contend that a movement towards process-based modelling can improve both the representation of the mechanistic basis of bioturbation and the intuitiveness of modelling approaches. In support of this initiative, we present an open source modelling framework that explicitly simulates particle displacement and a worked example to facilitate application and further development. The framework combines the advantages of rule-based lattice models with the application of parameterisable probability density functions to generate mixing on the lattice. Model parameters can be fitted by experimental data and describe particle displacement at the spatial and temporal scales at which bioturbation data is routinely collected. By using the same model structure across species, but generating species-specific parameters, a generic understanding of species-specific bioturbation behaviour can be achieved. An application to a case study and comparison with a commonly used model attest the predictive power of the approach

Seedling growth data

Data for seedling growth analysis (see https://github.com/kunstler/indirect.effect.climate

Seifan et al - Field survey information

Species recorded in the field survey under different environmental conditions. DRY/WET – plots with low/high flooding probabilities respectively; M+/ M– – plots with/without mole activity respectively. For each species listed, its abundance (number of individuals found in the survey plots) per environmental condition is given

Tillage effects on ground beetles in temperate climates: a review

Ground beetles (carabids) constitute an important functional component of biodiversity in agroecosystems, mainly because of their role as predators of pests, but also as consumers of weed seeds and as prey to other organisms. Over the past few decades, there has been a marked and continuous decline of ground beetles in Europe, and many species of this insect family are threatened by intensive agricultural practices. The effect of soil tillage, a standard technique in arable farming, on carabids has been investigated in many experimental studies. However, there is currently no clear and differentiated picture of how ground beetles are affected by tillage operations in direct and indirect ways. In this review, we narrow this gap of knowledge and show that the effects of intensive tillage on ground beetles-especially the use of mouldboard ploughing-are extremely variable. Nonetheless, on balance across multiple studies, greater tillage intensity tends to have a negative effect on abundance, species richness, and diversity. The observed variability may partly be attributed to a change in species-specific food availability or habitat conditions, induced by tillage. Tillage effects on dominant species tend to have a strong impact on total carabid abundance. The high variability of carabid responses to tillage is also a consequence of various modifying factors such as cover cropping, rotations, and variations in weed control associated with tillage. Because different modes of tillage tend to affect different carabid species, the diversification of tillage operations within a farm or region may contribute to the overall diversity of carabid communities

Seedling first year survival

Data used seedling survival analysis (see https://github.com/kunstler/indirect.effect.climaten for R code