EuroBlight tool for the comparison of late blight sub-models - Status and perspectives

Partners from the EuroBlight network, with support from ENDURE, created a freely available platform that allows testing and comparing weather-based late blight models (www.euroblight.net). The platform contains extensive weather data: hourly data from many European Union countries, both north and south, between 2006 and 2009. It also contains seven different weather based late blight sub-models. Most recently, biological data for verification were uploaded from monitoring of field experiments and potato fields around Europe. The results from different models for disease risk or, infection risk give similar but by no means identical results. The tool is intended to improve the quality of existing sub-models and it will be used to analyse the weather based risk of late blight development in different regions of Europe and beyon

Epidemiology and integrated control of Potato Late Blight in Europe

Phytophthora infestans, the causal agent of late blight, is a major threat to potato production in northwestern Europe. Before 1980, the worldwide population of P. infestans outside Mexico appeared to be asexual and to consist of a single clonal lineage of A1 mating type characterized by a single genotype. It is widely believed that new strains migrated into Europe in 1976 and that this led to subsequent population changes including the introduction of the A2 mating type. The population characteristics of recently collected isolates in NW Europe show a diverse population including both mating types, sexual reproduction and oospores, although differences are observed between regions. Although it is difficult to find direct evidence that new strains are more aggressive, there are several indications from experiments and field epidemics that the aggressiveness of P. infestans has increased in the past 20 years. The relative importance of the different primary inoculum sources and specific measures for reducing their role, such as covering dumps with plastic and preventing seed tubers from becoming infected, is described for the different regions. In NW Europe, varieties with greater resistance tend not to be grown on a large scale. From the grower’s perspective, the savings in fungicide input that can be achieved with these varieties are not compensated by the higher (perceived) risk of blight. Fungicides play a crucial role in the integrated control of late blight. The spray strategies in NW Europe and a table of the specific attributes of the most important fungicides in Europe are presented. The development and use of decision support systems (DSSs) in NW Europe are described. In The Netherlands, it is estimated that almost 40% of potato growers use recommendations based on commercially available DSS. In the Nordic countries, a new DSS concept with a fixed 7-day spray interval and a variable dose rate is being tested. In the UK, commercially available DSSs are used for c. 8% of the area. The validity of Smith Periods for the new population of P. infestans in the UK is currently being evaluated

Final results from the EU project AVATAR: aerodynamic modelling of 10 MW wind turbines

This paper presents final results from the EU project AVATAR in which aerodynamic models are improved and validated for wind turbines on a scale of 10 MW and more. Special attention is paid to the improvement of low fidelity engineering (BEM based) models with higher fidelity (CFD) models but also with intermediate fidelity free vortex wake (FVW) models. The latter methods were found to be a good basis for improvement of induction modelling in engineering methods amongst others for the prediction of yawed cases, which in AVATAR was found to be one of the most challenging subjects to model. FVW methods also helped to improve the prediction of tip losses. Aero-elastic calculations with BEM based and FVW based models showed that fatigue loads for normal production cases were over predicted with approximately 15% or even more. It should then be realised that the outcome of BEM based models does not only depend on the choice of engineering add-ons (as is often assumed) but it is also heavily dependent on the way the induced velocities are solved. To this end an annulus and element approach are discussed which are assessed with the aid of FVW methods. For the prediction of fatigue loads the so-called element approach is recommended but the derived yaw models rely on an annulus approach which pleads for a generalised solution method for the induced velocities

Latest results from the EU project AVATAR: aerodynamic modelling of 10 MW wind turbines

This paper presents the most recent results from the EU project AVATAR in which aerodynamic models are improved and validated for wind turbines on a scale of 10 MW and more. Measurements on a DU 00-W-212 airfoil are presented which have been taken in the pressurized DNW-HDG wind tunnel up to a Reynolds number of 15 Million. These measurements are compared with measurements in the LM wind tunnel for Reynolds numbers of 3 and 6 Million and with calculational results. In the analysis of results special attention is paid to high Reynolds numbers effects. CFD calculations on airfoil performance showed an unexpected large scatter which eventually was reduced by paying even more attention to grid independency and domain size in relation to grid topology. Moreover calculations are presented on flow devices (leading and trailing edge flaps and vortex generators). Finally results are shown between results from 3D rotor models where a comparison is made between results from vortex wake methods and BEM methods at yawed conditions

CFD modelling of wind farms in complex terrain

Modelling of entire wind farms in flat and complex terrain using a full 3D Navier–Stokes solver for incompressible flow is presented in this paper. Numerical integration of the governing equations is performed using an implicit pressure correction scheme, where the wind turbines (W/Ts) are modelled as momentum absorbers through their thrust coefficient. The k–ω turbulence model, suitably modified for atmospheric flows, is employed for closure. A correction is introduced to account for the underestimation of the near wake deficit, in which the turbulence time scale is bounded using a general “realizability” constraint for the fluctuating velocities. The second modelling issue that is discussed in this paper is related to the determination of the reference wind speed for the thrust calculation of the machines. Dealing with large wind farms and wind farms in complex terrain, determining the reference wind speed is not obvious when a W/T operates in the wake of another WT and/or in complex terrain. Two alternatives are compared: using the wind speed value at hub height one diameter upstream of the W/T and adopting an induction factor-based concept to overcome the utilization of a wind speed at a certain distance upwind of the rotor. Application is made in two wind farms, a five-machine one located in flat terrain and a 43-machine one located in complex terrain

Simulation of wind farms in flat and complex terrain using CFD

Use of computational fluid dynamic (CFD) methods to predict the power production from wind entire wind farms in flat and complex terrain is presented in this paper. Two full 3D Navier–Stokes solvers for incompressible flow are employed that incorporate the k–ε and k–ω turbulence models respectively. The wind turbines (W/Ts) are modelled as momentum absorbers by means of their thrust coefficient using the actuator disk approach. The WT thrust is estimated using the wind speed one diameter upstream of the rotor at hub height. An alternative method that employs an induction-factor based concept is also tested. This method features the advantage of not utilizing the wind speed at a specific distance from the rotor disk, which is a doubtful approximation when a W/T is located in the wake of another and/or the terrain is complex. To account for the underestimation of the near wake deficit, a correction is introduced to the turbulence model. The turbulence time scale is bounded using the general “realizability” constraint for the turbulent velocities. Application is made on two wind farms, a five-machine one located in flat terrain and another 43-machine one located in complex terrain. In the flat terrain case, the combination of the induction factor method along with the turbulence correction provides satisfactory results. In the complex terrain case, there are some significant discrepancies with the measurements, which are discussed. In this case, the induction factor method does not provide satisfactory results

Efficient Bayesian calibration of aerodynamic wind turbine models using surrogate modeling

This paper presents an efficient strategy for the Bayesian calibration of parameters of aerodynamic wind turbine models. The strategy relies on constructing a surrogate model (based on adaptive polynomial chaos expansions), which is used to perform both parameter selection using global sensitivity analysis and parameter calibration with Bayesian inference. The effectiveness of this approach is shown in two test cases: calibration of airfoil polars based on the measurements from the DanAero MW experiments, and calibration of five yaw model parameters based on measurements on the New MEXICO turbine in yawed conditions. In both cases, the calibrated models yield results much closer to the measurement data, and in addition they are equipped with an estimate of the uncertainty in the predictions