Regional Imprints of Changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in the Eddy-rich Ocean Model VIKING20X

A hierarchy of global 1/4° (ORCA025) and Atlantic Ocean 1/20° nested (VIKING20X) ocean/sea-ice models is described. It is shown that the eddy-rich configurations performed in hindcasts of the past 50–60 years under CORE and JRA55-do atmospheric forcings realistically simulate the large-scale horizontal circulation, the distribution of the mesoscale, overflow and convective processes, and the representation of regional current systems in the North and South Atlantic. The representation, and in particular the long-term temporal evolution, of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strongly depends on numerical choices for the application of freshwater fluxes. The interannual variability of the AMOC instead is highly correlated among the model experiments and also with observations, including the 2010 minimum observed by RAPID at 26.5° N pointing at a dominant role of the forcing. Regional observations in western boundary current systems at 53° N, 26.5° N and 11° S are explored in respect to their ability to represent the AMOC and to monitor the temporal evolution of the AMOC. Apart from the basin-scale measurements at 26.5° N, it is shown that in particular the outflow of North Atlantic Deepwater at 53° N is a good indicator of the subpolar AMOC trend during the recent decades, if the latter is provided in density coordinates. The good reproduction of observed AMOC and WBC trends in the most reasonable simulations indicate that the eddy-rich VIKING20X is capable in representing realistic forcing-related and ocean-intrinsic trends

Big data in Antarctic sciences – current status, gaps, and future perspectives

This paper was initiated by a multidisciplinary Topic Workshop in the frame of the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft Priority Program 1158 “Antarctic Research with Comparative Investigations in Arctic Ice Areas”, and hence it represents only the national view without claiming to be complete but is intended to provide awareness and suggestions for the current discussion on so-called big data in many scientific fields. The importance of the polar regions and their essential role for the Earth system are both undoubtedly recognized. However, dramatic changes in the climate and environment have been observed first in the Arctic and later in Antarctica over the past few decades. While important data have been collected and observation networks have been built in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, this is a relatively data-scarce region due to the challenges of remote data acquisition, expensive labor, and harsh environmental conditions. There are many approaches crossing multiple scientific disciplines to better understand Antarctic processes; to evaluate ongoing climatic and environmental changes and their manifold ecological, physical, chemical, and geological consequences; and to make (improved) predictions. Together, these approaches generate very large, multivariate data sets, which can be broadly classified as “Antarctic big data”. For these large data sets, there is a pressing need for improved data acquisition, curation, integration, service, and application to support fundamental scientific research. Based on deficiencies in crossing disciplines and to attract further interest in big data in Antarctic sciences, this article will (i) describe and evaluate the current status of big data in various Antarctic-related scientific disciplines, (ii) identify current gaps, (iii) and provide solutions to fill these gaps.</p

AMS INSIGHT—Absorbable Metal Stent Implantation for Treatment of Below-the-Knee Critical Limb Ischemia: 6-Month Analysis

Endoluminal treatment of infrapopliteal artery lesions is a matter of controversy. Bioabsorbable stents are discussed as a means to combine mechanical prevention of vessel recoil with the advantages of long-term perspectives. The possibility of not having a permanent metallic implant could permit the occurrence of positive remodeling with lumen enlargement to compensate for the development of new lesions. The present study was designed to investigate the safety of absorbable metal stents (AMSs) in the infrapopliteal arteries based on 1- and 6-month clinical follow-up and efficacy based on 6-month angiographic patency. One hundred seventeen patients with 149 lesions with chronic limb ischemia (CLI) were randomized to implantation of an AMS (60 patients, 74 lesions) or stand-alone percutaneous transluminal angioplasty (PTA; 57 patients, 75 lesions). Seven PTA-group patients “crossed over” to AMS stenting. The study population consisted of patients with symptomatic CLI (Rutherford categories 4 and 5) and de novo stenotic (>50%) or occlusive atherosclerotic disease of the infrapopliteal arteries who presented with a reference diameter of between 3.0 and 3.5 mm and a lesion length of <15 mm. The primary safety endpoint was defined as absence of major amputation and/or death within 30 days after index intervention and the primary efficacy endpoint was the 6-month angiographic patency rate as confirmed by core-lab quantitative vessel analysis. The 30-day complication rate was 5.3% (3/57) and 5.0% (3/60) in patients randomized for PTA alone and PTA followed by AMS implantation, respectively. On an intention-to-treat basis, the 6-month angiographic patency rate for lesions treated with AMS (31.8%) was significantly lower (p = 0.013) than the rate for those treated with PTA (58.0%). Although the present study indicates that the AMS technology can be safely applied, it did not demonstrate efficacy in long-term patency over standard PTA in the infrapopliteal vessels

Results of Iliac Branch Devices in Octogenarians Within the pELVIS Registry

Purpose:To evaluate if the elderly could benefit from the implantation of iliac branch devices (IBDs) to preserve the patency of the internal iliac artery (IIA) in aneurysms involving the iliac bifurcation.Materials and Methods:From January 2005 to April 2017, 804 patients enrolled in the pELVIS registry underwent endovascular aneurysm repair with 910 IBDs due to aneurysmal involvement of the iliac bifurcation. Among the 804 patients, 157 (19.5%) were octogenarians (mean age 82.9 +/- 2.5 years; 157 men) with 171 target IIAs for preservation. Outcomes at 30 days included technical success, death, conversion to open surgery, and major complications. Outcomes evaluated in follow-up were patency of the IBD and target vessels, type I and type III endoleaks, aneurysm-related reinterventions, aneurysm-related death, and overall patient survival. Kaplan-Meier analyses were employed to evaluate the late outcome measures; the estimates are presented with the 95% confidence interval (CI).Results:Technical success was 99.4% with no intraoperative conversions or deaths (1 bridging stent could not be implanted, and the IIA was sacrificed). Perioperative mortality was 1.9%. The overall perioperative aneurysm-related complication rate was 8.9% (14/157), with an early reintervention rate of 5.1% (8/157). Median postoperative radiological and clinical follow-up were 21.8 months (range 1-127) and 29.3 months (range 1-127), respectively. Estimated rates of freedom from occlusion of the IBD, the IIA, and the external iliac artery at 60 months were 97.7% (95% CI 96.1% to 99.3%), 97.3% (95% CI 95.7% to 98.9%), and 98.6% (95% CI 97% to 99.9%), respectively. Estimated rates of freedom from type I and type III endoleaks and device migration at 60 months were 90.9% (95% CI 87% to 94.3%), 98.7% (95% CI 97.5% to 99.8%), and 98% (95% CI 96.4% to 99.6%), respectively. Freedom from all cause reintervention at 60 months was 87.4% (95% CI 82.6% to 92.2%). The estimated overall survival rate at 60 months was 59% (95% CI 52.4% to 65.6%).Conclusion:IBD implantation in octogenarians provided acceptable perioperative mortality and morbidity rates, with satisfying long-term freedom from IBD-related complications and should be considered a feasible repair option for selected elderly patients affected by aneurysms involving the iliac bifurcation

Progress report no. 4

Statement of responsibility on title-page reads: editors: M.J. Driscoll, D.D. Lanning, I. Kaplan, A.T. Supple ; contributors: A. Alvim, G.J. Brown, J.K. Chan, T.P. Choong, M.J. Driscoll, G. A. Ducat, I.A. Forbes, M.V. Gregory, S.Y. Ho, C.M. Hove, O. K. Kadiroglu, R.J. Kennerley, D.D. Lanning, J.L. Lazewatsky, L. Lederman, A.S. Leveckis, V.A. Miethe, P. A. Scheinert, A.M. Thompson, N.E. Todreas, C.P. Tzanos, and P.J. WoodIncludes bibliographical referencesProgress report; June 30, 1973U.S. Atomic Energy Commission contract: AT(11-1)225

Evaluation of global ocean–sea-ice model simulations based on the experimental protocols of the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (OMIP-2)

We present a new framework for global ocean- sea-ice model simulations based on phase 2 of the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP-2), making use of the surface dataset based on the Japanese 55-year atmospheric reanalysis for driving ocean-sea-ice models (JRA55-do).We motivate the use of OMIP-2 over the framework for the first phase of OMIP (OMIP-1), previously referred to as the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (COREs), via the evaluation of OMIP-1 and OMIP-2 simulations from 11 state-of-the-science global ocean-sea-ice models. In the present evaluation, multi-model ensemble means and spreads are calculated separately for the OMIP-1 and OMIP-2 simulations and overall performance is assessed considering metrics commonly used by ocean modelers. Both OMIP-1 and OMIP-2 multi-model ensemble ranges capture observations in more than 80% of the time and region for most metrics, with the multi-model ensemble spread greatly exceeding the difference between the means of the two datasets. Many features, including some climatologically relevant ocean circulation indices, are very similar between OMIP-1 and OMIP- 2 simulations, and yet we could also identify key qualitative improvements in transitioning from OMIP-1 to OMIP- 2. For example, the sea surface temperatures of the OMIP- 2 simulations reproduce the observed global warming during the 1980s and 1990s, as well as the warming slowdown in the 2000s and the more recent accelerated warming, which were absent in OMIP-1, noting that the last feature is part of the design of OMIP-2 because OMIP-1 forcing stopped in 2009. A negative bias in the sea-ice concentration in summer of both hemispheres in OMIP-1 is significantly reduced in OMIP-2. The overall reproducibility of both seasonal and interannual variations in sea surface temperature and sea surface height (dynamic sea level) is improved in OMIP-2. These improvements represent a new capability of the OMIP-2 framework for evaluating processlevel responses using simulation results. Regarding the sensitivity of individual models to the change in forcing, the models show well-ordered responses for the metrics that are directly forced, while they show less organized responses for those that require complex model adjustments. Many of the remaining common model biases may be attributed either to errors in representing important processes in ocean-sea-ice models, some of which are expected to be reduced by using finer horizontal and/or vertical resolutions, or to shared biases and limitations in the atmospheric forcing. In particular, further efforts are warranted to resolve remaining issues in OMIP-2 such as the warm bias in the upper layer, the mismatch between the observed and simulated variability of heat content and thermosteric sea level before 1990s, and the erroneous representation of deep and bottom water formations and circulations. We suggest that such problems can be resolved through collaboration between those developing models (including parameterizations) and forcing datasets. Overall, the present assessment justifies our recommendation that future model development and analysis studies use the OMIP-2 framework

Evaluation of global ocean–sea-ice model simulations based on the experimental protocols of the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (OMIP-2)

We present a new framework for global ocean–sea-ice model simulations based on phase 2 of the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP-2), making use of the surface dataset based on the Japanese 55-year atmospheric reanalysis for driving ocean–sea-ice models (JRA55-do). We motivate the use of OMIP-2 over the framework for the first phase of OMIP (OMIP-1), previously referred to as the Coordinated Ocean–ice Reference Experiments (COREs), via the evaluation of OMIP-1 and OMIP-2 simulations from 11 state-of-the-science global ocean–sea-ice models. In the present evaluation, multi-model ensemble means and spreads are calculated separately for the OMIP-1 and OMIP-2 simulations and overall performance is assessed considering metrics commonly used by ocean modelers. Both OMIP-1 and OMIP-2 multi-model ensemble ranges capture observations in more than 80 % of the time and region for most metrics, with the multi-model ensemble spread greatly exceeding the difference between the means of the two datasets. Many features, including some climatologically relevant ocean circulation indices, are very similar between OMIP-1 and OMIP-2 simulations, and yet we could also identify key qualitative improvements in transitioning from OMIP-1 to OMIP-2. For example, the sea surface temperatures of the OMIP-2 simulations reproduce the observed global warming during the 1980s and 1990s, as well as the warming slowdown in the 2000s and the more recent accelerated warming, which were absent in OMIP-1, noting that the last feature is part of the design of OMIP-2 because OMIP-1 forcing stopped in 2009. A negative bias in the sea-ice concentration in summer of both hemispheres in OMIP-1 is significantly reduced in OMIP-2. The overall reproducibility of both seasonal and interannual variations in sea surface temperature and sea surface height (dynamic sea level) is improved in OMIP-2. These improvements represent a new capability of the OMIP-2 framework for evaluating process-level responses using simulation results. Regarding the sensitivity of individual models to the change in forcing, the models show well-ordered responses for the metrics that are directly forced, while they show less organized responses for those that require complex model adjustments. Many of the remaining common model biases may be attributed either to errors in representing important processes in ocean–sea-ice models, some of which are expected to be reduced by using finer horizontal and/or vertical resolutions, or to shared biases and limitations in the atmospheric forcing. In particular, further efforts are warranted to resolve remaining issues in OMIP-2 such as the warm bias in the upper layer, the mismatch between the observed and simulated variability of heat content and thermosteric sea level before 1990s, and the erroneous representation of deep and bottom water formations and circulations. We suggest that such problems can be resolved through collaboration between those developing models (including parameterizations) and forcing datasets. Overall, the present assessment justifies our recommendation that future model development and analysis studies use the OMIP-2 framework.This research has been supported by the Integrated Research Program for Advancing Climate Models (TOUGOU) of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), Japan (grant nos. JPMXD0717935457 and JPMXD0717935561), the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) (grant no. 274762653), the Helmholtz Climate Initiative REKLIM (Regional Climate Change) and European Union's Horizon 2020 Research & Innovation program (grant nos. 727862 and 800154), the Research Council of Norway (EVA (grant no. 229771) and INES (grant no. 270061)), the US National Science Foundation (NSF) (grant no. 1852977), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant nos. 41931183 and 41976026), NOAA's Science Collaboration Program and administered by UCAR's Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System Science (CPAESS) (grant nos. NA16NWS4620043 and NA18NWS4620043B), and NOAA (grant no. NA18OAR4320123).Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Status Update and Interim Results from the Asymptomatic Carotid Surgery Trial-2 (ACST-2)

Objectives: ACST-2 is currently the largest trial ever conducted to compare carotid artery stenting (CAS) with carotid endarterectomy (CEA) in patients with severe asymptomatic carotid stenosis requiring revascularization. Methods: Patients are entered into ACST-2 when revascularization is felt to be clearly indicated, when CEA and CAS are both possible, but where there is substantial uncertainty as to which is most appropriate. Trial surgeons and interventionalists are expected to use their usual techniques and CE-approved devices. We report baseline characteristics and blinded combined interim results for 30-day mortality and major morbidity for 986 patients in the ongoing trial up to September 2012. Results: A total of 986 patients (687 men, 299 women), mean age 68.7 years (SD ± 8.1) were randomized equally to CEA or CAS. Most (96%) had ipsilateral stenosis of 70-99% (median 80%) with contralateral stenoses of 50-99% in 30% and contralateral occlusion in 8%. Patients were on appropriate medical treatment. For 691 patients undergoing intervention with at least 1-month follow-up and Rankin scoring at 6 months for any stroke, the overall serious cardiovascular event rate of periprocedural (within 30 days) disabling stroke, fatal myocardial infarction, and death at 30 days was 1.0%. Conclusions: Early ACST-2 results suggest contemporary carotid intervention for asymptomatic stenosis has a low risk of serious morbidity and mortality, on par with other recent trials. The trial continues to recruit, to monitor periprocedural events and all types of stroke, aiming to randomize up to 5,000 patients to determine any differential outcomes between interventions. Clinical trial: ISRCTN21144362. © 2013 European Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved