Results from the centers for disease control and prevention's predict the 2013-2014 Influenza Season Challenge

Background: Early insights into the timing of the start, peak, and intensity of the influenza season could be useful in planning influenza prevention and control activities. To encourage development and innovation in influenza forecasting, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) organized a challenge to predict the 2013-14 Unites States influenza season. Methods: Challenge contestants were asked to forecast the start, peak, and intensity of the 2013-2014 influenza season at the national level and at any or all Health and Human Services (HHS) region level(s). The challenge ran from December 1, 2013-March 27, 2014; contestants were required to submit 9 biweekly forecasts at the national level to be eligible. The selection of the winner was based on expert evaluation of the methodology used to make the prediction and the accuracy of the prediction as judged against the U.S. Outpatient Influenza-like Illness Surveillance Network (ILINet). Results: Nine teams submitted 13 forecasts for all required milestones. The first forecast was due on December 2, 2013; 3/13 forecasts received correctly predicted the start of the influenza season within one week, 1/13 predicted the peak within 1 week, 3/13 predicted the peak ILINet percentage within 1 %, and 4/13 predicted the season duration within 1 week. For the prediction due on December 19, 2013, the number of forecasts that correctly forecasted the peak week increased to 2/13, the peak percentage to 6/13, and the duration of the season to 6/13. As the season progressed, the forecasts became more stable and were closer to the season milestones. Conclusion: Forecasting has become technically feasible, but further efforts are needed to improve forecast accuracy so that policy makers can reliably use these predictions. CDC and challenge contestants plan to build upon the methods developed during this contest to improve the accuracy of influenza forecasts. © 2016 The Author(s)

Crowding and the shape of COVID-19 epidemics

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is straining public health systems worldwide, and major non-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented to slow its spread1,2,3,4. During the initial phase of the outbreak, dissemination of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was primarily determined by human mobility from Wuhan, China5,6. Yet empirical evidence on the effect of key geographic factors on local epidemic transmission is lacking7. In this study, we analyzed highly resolved spatial variables in cities, together with case count data, to investigate the role of climate, urbanization and variation in interventions. We show that the degree to which cases of COVID-19 are compressed into a short period of time (peakedness of the epidemic) is strongly shaped by population aggregation and heterogeneity, such that epidemics in crowded cities are more spread over time, and crowded cities have larger total attack rates than less populated cities. Observed differences in the peakedness of epidemics are consistent with a meta-population model of COVID-19 that explicitly accounts for spatial hierarchies. We paired our estimates with globally comprehensive data on human mobility and predict that crowded cities worldwide could experience more prolonged epidemics

Activated Leukocyte Cell Adhesion Molecule Expression and Shedding in Thyroid Tumors

Activated leukocyte cell adhesion molecule (ALCAM, CD166) is expressed in various tissues, cancers, and cancer-initiating cells. Alterations in expression of ALCAM have been reported in several human tumors, and cell adhesion functions have been proposed to explain its association with cancer. Here we documented high levels of ALCAM expression in human thyroid tumors and cell lines. Through proteomic characterization of ALCAM expression in the human papillary thyroid carcinoma cell line TPC-1, we identified the presence of a full-length membrane-associated isoform in cell lysate and of soluble ALCAM isoforms in conditioned medium. This finding is consistent with proteolytically shed ALCAM ectodomains. Nonspecific agents, such as phorbol myristate acetate (PMA) or ionomycin, provoked increased ectodomain shedding. Epidermal growth factor receptor stimulation also enhanced ALCAM secretion through an ADAM17/TACE-dependent pathway. ADAM17/TACE was expressed in the TPC-1 cell line, and ADAM17/TACE silencing by specific small interfering RNAs reduced ALCAM shedding. In addition, the CGS27023A inhibitor of ADAM17/TACE function reduced ALCAM release in a dose-dependent manner and inhibited cell migration in a wound-healing assay. We also provide evidence for the existence of novel O-glycosylated forms and of a novel 60-kDa soluble form of ALCAM, which is particularly abundant following cell stimulation by PMA. ALCAM expression in papillary and medullary thyroid cancer specimens and in the surrounding non-tumoral component was studied by western blot and immunohistochemistry, with results demonstrating that tumor cells overexpress ALCAM. These findings strongly suggest the possibility that ALCAM may have an important role in thyroid tumor biology

Modeling the Spatial Distribution and Fruiting Pattern of a Key Tree Species in a Neotropical Forest: Methodology and Potential Applications

Damien Caillaud is with UT Austin and Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology; Margaret C. Crofoot is with the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Max Planck Institute for Ornithology, and Princeton University; Samuel V. Scarpino is with UT Austin; Patrick A. Jansen is with the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Wageningen University, and University of Groningen; Carol X. Garzon-Lopez is with University of Groningen; Annemarie J. S. Winkelhagen is with Wageningen University; Stephanie A. Bohlman is with Princeton University; Peter D. Walsh is with VaccinApe.Background -- The movement patterns of wild animals depend crucially on the spatial and temporal availability of resources in their habitat. To date, most attempts to model this relationship were forced to rely on simplified assumptions about the spatiotemporal distribution of food resources. Here we demonstrate how advances in statistics permit the combination of sparse ground sampling with remote sensing imagery to generate biological relevant, spatially and temporally explicit distributions of food resources. We illustrate our procedure by creating a detailed simulation model of fruit production patterns for Dipteryx oleifera, a keystone tree species, on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. Methodology and Principal Findings -- Aerial photographs providing GPS positions for large, canopy trees, the complete census of a 50-ha and 25-ha area, diameter at breast height data from haphazardly sampled trees and long-term phenology data from six trees were used to fit 1) a point process model of tree spatial distribution and 2) a generalized linear mixed-effect model of temporal variation of fruit production. The fitted parameters from these models are then used to create a stochastic simulation model which incorporates spatio-temporal variations of D. oleifera fruit availability on BCI. Conclusions and Significance -- We present a framework that can provide a statistical characterization of the habitat that can be included in agent-based models of animal movements. When environmental heterogeneity cannot be exhaustively mapped, this approach can be a powerful alternative. The results of our model on the spatio-temporal variation in D. oleifera fruit availability will be used to understand behavioral and movement patterns of several species on BCI.The National Center For Ecological Analysis is supported by NSF Grant DEB-0553768, the University of California Santa Barbara and the State of California. The Forest Dynamics Plots were funded by NSF Grants to Stephen Hubbell DEB-0640386, DEB-0425651, DEB-0346488, DEB-0129874, DEB-00753102, DEB-9909347, DEB-9615226, DEB-9615226, DEB-9405933, DEB-9221033, DEB-9100058, DEB-8906869, DEB-8605042, DEB-8206992, DEB-7922197, and by the Center for Tropical Forest Science, the Smithsonian Tropical Forest Research Institute, The John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, the Mellon Foundation and the Celera Foundation. DC is supported by NSF grant DEB-0749097 to L.A. Meyers. SS is supported by an NSF Graduate Research Fellowship. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.Biological Sciences, School o

Effect of Systemic Hypertension With Versus Without Left Ventricular Hypertrophy on the Progression of Atrial Fibrillation (from the Euro Heart Survey).

Hypertension is a risk factor for both progression of atrial fibrillation (AF) and development of AF-related complications, that is major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE). It is unknown whether left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) as a consequence of hypertension is also a risk factor for both these end points. We aimed to assess this in low-risk AF patients, also assessing gender-related differences. We included 799 patients from the Euro Heart Survey with nonvalvular AF and a baseline echocardiogram. Patients with and without hypertension were included. End points after 1 year were occurrence of AF progression, that is paroxysmal AF becoming persistent and/or permanent AF, and MACCE. Echocardiographic LVH was present in 33% of 379 hypertensive patients. AF progression after 1 year occurred in 10.2% of 373 patients with rhythm follow-up. In hypertensive patients with LVH, AF progression occurred more frequently as compared with hypertensive patients without LVH (23.3% vs 8.8%, p = 0.011). In hypertensive AF patients, LVH was the most important multivariably adjusted determinant of AF progression on multivariable logistic regression (odds ratio 4.84, 95% confidence interval 1.70 to 13.78, p = 0.003). This effect was only seen in male patients (27.5% vs 5.8%, p = 0.002), while in female hypertensive patients, no differences were found in AF progression rates regarding the presence or absence of LVH (15.2% vs 15.0%, p = 0.999). No differences were seen in MACCE for hypertensive patients with and without LVH. In conclusion, in men with hypertension, LVH is associated with AF progression. This association seems to be absent in hypertensive women

The additional value of patient-reported health status in predicting 1-year mortality after invasive coronary procedures: A report from the Euro Heart Survey on Coronary Revascularisation

Objective: Self-perceived health status may be helpful in identifying patients at high risk for adverse outcomes. The Euro Heart Survey on Coronary Revascularization (EHS-CR) provided an opportunity to explore whether impaired health status was a predictor of 1-year mortality in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) undergoing angiographic procedures. Methods: Data from the EHS-CR that included 5619 patients from 31 member countries of the European Society of Cardiology were used. Inclusion criteria for the current study were completion of a self-report measure of health status, the EuroQol Questionnaire (EQ-5D) at discharge and information on 1-year follow-up, resulting in a study population of 3786 patients. Results: The 1-year mortality was 3.2% (n = 120). Survivors reported fewer problems on the five dimensions of the EQ-5D as compared with non-survivors. A broad range of potential confounders were adjusted for, which reached a p<0.10 in the unadjusted analyses. In the adjusted analyses, problems with self-care (OR 3.45; 95% CI 2.14 to 5.59) and a low rating (≤ 60) on health status (OR 2.41; 95% CI 1.47 to 3.94) were the most powerful independent predictors of mortality, among the 22 clinical variables included in the analysis. Furthermore, patients who reported no problems on all five dimensions had significantly lower 1-year mortality rates (OR 0.47; 95% CI 0.28 to 0.81). Conclusions: This analysis shows that impaired health status is associated with a 2-3-fold increased risk of all-cause mortality in patients with CAD, independent of other conventional risk factors. These results highlight the importance of including patients' subjective experience of their own health status in the evaluation strategy to optimise risk stratification and management in clinical practice

Progression From Paroxysmal to Persistent Atrial Fibrillation. Clinical Correlates and Prognosis

Objectives: We investigated clinical correlates of atrial fibrillation (AF) progression and evaluated the prognosis of patients demonstrating AF progression in a large population. Background: Progression of paroxysmal AF to more sustained forms is frequently seen. However, not all patients will progress to persistent AF. Methods: We included 1,219 patients with paroxysmal AF who participated in the Euro Heart Survey on AF and had a known rhythm status at follow-up. Patients who experienced AF progression after 1 year of follow-up were identified. Results: Progression of AF occurred in 178 (15%) patients. Multivariate analysis showed that heart failure, age, previous transient ischemic attack or stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and hypertension were the only independent predictors of AF progression. Using the regression coefficient as a benchmark, we calculated the HATCH score. Nearly 50% of the patients with a HATCH score &gt;5 progressed to persistent AF compared with only 6% of the patients with a HATCH score of 0. During follow-up, patients with AF progression were more often admitted to the hospital and had more major adverse cardiovascular events. Conclusions: A substantial number of patients progress to sustained AF within 1 year. The clinical outcome of these patients regarding hospital admissions and major adverse cardiovascular events was worse compared with patients demonstrating no AF progression. Factors known to cause atrial structural remodeling (age and underlying heart disease) were independent predictors of AF progression. The HATCH score may help to identify patients who are likely to progress to sustained forms of AF in the near future. \ua9 2010 American College of Cardiology Foundation

AN ACCURATE 3D SIMULATION OF INDUCED CURRENTS IN BRAIN-TISSUES BY MAGNETIC STIMULATION

In spite of a large clinical and experimental application the techniques of transcranial magnetic stimulation still present obscure aspects. This concerns especially the safety parameters and the exact characterization of the current induced by a single magnetic pulse. The model proposed consists in an equivalent electric network derived by Maxwell's equations and applied to discretized magnetic resonance imaging of a normal subject head. This model allows an accurate 3D prediction of current distribution

Óleo de soja e óleo de soja residual em dietas para ovinos confinados: Parâmetros sanguíneos

The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of 2 dietary lipid sources (soybean oil and residual soybean oil) on blood parameters of feedlot sheep. It were used 24 male lambs Santa Inês × Dorper, uncastrated, distributed in a randomized block design and assigned to three experimental diets: C= control diet, composed by forage concentrate ratio of 40:60, S= C with 6 % of soybean oil, and R= C with 6 % of frying oil. Corn silage was the roughage and concentrate was composed by whole corn grain, soybean hulls, sunflower meal, urea, mineral salt, limestone, and antioxidant. The animals were kept in individual pen for 105 days, and at day 59 blood samples were collected by jugular vein puncture for quantification of glucose, triglycerides, cholesterol, total protein, and liver enzymes AST (aspartate aminotransferase), GGT (gamma glutamyl transferase) and FAL (alkaline phosphatase). Inclusion of 6 % of soybean oil or frying oil in diet increased the concentration of cholesterol and AST (p<0.01); FAL tended (p= 0.06) to increase when residual oil was used. However, such changes are not sufficient to cause damage to animal health.Objetivou-se neste trabalho avaliar o efeito da inclusão de 2 fontes lipídicas (óleo de soja e óleo de soja residual) na dieta de ovinos confinados sobre os parâmetros sanguíneos. Foram utiliza- dos 24 borregos Santa Inês × Dorper, machos, não castrados, distribuídos em delineamento em blocos casualizados e submetidos a três dietas experimentais: C= dieta controle, volumoso:con- centrado na proporção de 40:60; S= C com inclusão de 6 % de óleo de soja; e R= C com inclusão de 6 % de óleo de soja residual de fritura. Silagem de milho foi utilizada como volumoso e o concentrado era composto por milho grão inteiro, casca de soja, farelo de girassol, ureia, sal mineral, calcário e antioxidante. Os animais foram confinados por 105 dias, sendo que no dia 59 foram realizadas colheitas de sangue através de punção da veia jugular para quantificação de glicose, triglicérides, colesterol e proteínas totais, além das enzimas hepáticas aspartato aminotransferase (AST), gama glutamiltransferase (GGT) e fosfatase alcalina (FAL). A inclusão de 6 % de óleo de soja ou de óleo residual na dieta aumentou as concentrações sanguíneas de colesterol e da AST (p<0,01), e a FAL tendeu a aumentar (p= 0,06) quando óleo residual foi utilizado. Porém, tais alterações não foram suficientes para causarem prejuízos na saúde animal