Identification of prognostic factors predicting the long-term clinical outcome in Multiple Sclerosis

Multiple Sclerosis (MS) evolution varies from benign to aggressive forms, and its prognosis remains largely unpredictable, especially in individual cases. Relapse frequency is commonly used as indicator of disease activity and as primary endpoint in randomized clinical trials (RCTs). However, the role of inflammatory attacks on the disease progression is still largely debated. The lack of reliable predictors of the long-term evolution prevents from applying a rational and individualized therapeutic approach. In addition, RCTs methodology is still not sufficiently rigorous for protecting against the bias due to the large variability of the clinical outcome. The project was carried out by analysing the London Ontario (LO) database, one of the largest collections of natural history data from untreated patients, followed up for 28 years. We analysed factors affecting prognosis and predicting disease evolution up to its latest stages. We first investigated in details the relationship between relapses and long-term outcome. The analysis demonstrated poor correlation between number of attacks and the attainment of severe disability, invalidating relapse frequency as surrogate marker for late outcome. In addition, it evidenced the onset of the secondary progressive (SP) phase as the key determinant of prognosis, differentiating patients’ outcome and accounting for the variability of disease course. We therefore analysed in details factors affecting the rate of conversion to SP MS, in order to calculate how the risk of becoming progressive varies with disease duration. This information can be used for designing RCTs using SP onset as primary outcome. We then extensively investigated the effect of age on the disease evolution, before and after the onset of progression. The analysis highlighted age as the strongest determinant of MS prognosis, exerting its predictive effect primarily by affecting the evolution of the relapsing remitting (RR) phase and by increasing the probability of experiencing a progressive courseOpen Acces

A novel prognostic score to assess the risk of progression in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis patients

BACKGROUND: At patient-level, the prognostic value of several features that are known to be associated with an increased risk of converting from relapsing remitting (RR) to secondary phase (SP) multiple sclerosis (MS), remain limited.METHODS: Among 262 RRMS patients followed up for ten years, we assessed the probability of developing the SP course based on clinical and conventional and non-conventional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) parameters at diagnosis and after two years. We used a machine learning method, the Random Survival Forests, to identify, according to their minimal depth (MD), the most predictive factors associated with the risk of SP conversion, which were then combined to compute the Secondary Progressive Risk Score (SP-RiSc).RESULTS: During the observation period, 69 (26%) patients converted to SPMS. The number of cortical lesions (MD=2.47) and age (MD=3.30) at diagnosis, the global cortical thinning (MD = 1.65), the cerebellar cortical volume loss (MD = 2.15) and the cortical lesion load increase (MD=3.15) over the first two years, exerted the greatest predictive effect. Three patients' risk-groups were identified; in the high-risk group, 85% (46 out of 55) of patients entered the SP phase in 7 median years. The SP-RiSc optimal cut-off estimated was 17.7 showing specificity and sensitivity of 87% and 92% respectively, and overall accuracy of 88%.CONCLUSIONS: The SP-RiSc yielded a high performance in identifying MS patients with high probability to develop SPMS, which can help improve management strategies. These findings are the premise of further larger prospective studies to assess its use in clinical settings

Sex-dependent effects of developmental lead exposure in Wistar rats: Evidence from behavioral and molecular correlates

Lead (Pb) exposure in early life affects brain development resulting in cognitive and behavioral deficits. Epidemiologic and experimental evidence of sex as an effect modifier of developmental Pb exposure is emerging. In the present study, we investigated Pb effects on behavior and mechanisms of neuroplasticity in the hippocampus and potential sex differences. To this aim, dams were exposed, from one month pre-mating to offspring weaning, to Pb via drinking water at 5 mg/kg body weight per day. In the offspring of both sexes, the longitudinal assessment of motor, emotional, and cognitive end points was performed. We also evaluated the expression and synaptic distribution of N-methyl-D-Aspartate receptor (NMDA) and ff-amino-3-hydroxy-5-methyl-4-isoxazolepropionic acid (AMPA) receptor subunits at post-natal day (pnd) 23 and 70 in the hippocampus. Neonatal motor patterns and explorative behavior in offspring were affected in both sexes. Pb effects in emotional response and memory retention were observed in adult females only, preceded by increased levels of GluN2A and GluA1 subunits at the post-synapse at pnd 23. These data suggest that Pb exposure during development affects glutamatergic receptors distribution at the post-synaptic spine in females. These effects may contribute to alterations in selected behavioral domains

Treatment with disease modifying drugs for people with a first clinical attack suggestive of multiple sclerosis

This is the protocol for a review and there is no abstract. The objectives are as follows: To estimate the benefit and safety of all DMDs that have been evaluated in all studies (randomised and non-randomised) for early treatment. We will employ novel, high-quality methods for systematic reviews and network meta-analysis in collaboration with the Cochrane Multiple Interventions Group. To evaluate the quality of the evidence provided by existing studies. We will consider the credibility of included studies and other characteristics of the evidence base as we characterise conclusions pertaining to high, low or very low quality of evidence. We will undertake this review in accordance with the methods described by the template protocol published online and will use this template as we prepare the review

Mindfulness based interventions in multiple sclerosis: a systematic review

<b>Background</b> Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a stressful condition; depression, anxiety, pain and fatigue are all common problems. Mindfulness based interventions (MBIs) mitigate stress and prevent relapse in depression and are increasingly being used in healthcare. However, there are currently no systematic reviews of MBIs in people with MS. This review aims to evaluate the effectiveness of MBIs in people with MS.<p></p> <b>Methods</b> Systematic searches were carried out in seven major databases, using both subject headings and key words. Papers were screened, data extracted, quality appraised, and analysed by two reviewers independently, using predefined criteria. Study quality was assessed using the Cochrane Collaboration risk of bias tool. Perceived stress was the primary outcome. Secondary outcomes include mental health, physical health, quality of life, and health service utilisation. Statistical meta-analysis was not possible. Disagreements were adjudicated by a third party reviewer.<p></p> <b>Results</b> Three studies (n = 183 participants) were included in the final analysis. The studies were undertaken in Wales (n = 16, randomised controlled trial - (RCT)), Switzerland (n = 150, RCT), and the United States (n = 17, controlled trial). 146 (80%) participants were female; mean age (SD) was 48.6 (9.4) years. Relapsing remitting MS was the main diagnostic category (n = 123, 67%); 43 (26%) had secondary progressive disease; and the remainder were unspecified. MBIs lasted 6–8 weeks; attrition rates were variable (5-43%); all employed pre- post- measures; two had longer follow up; one at 3, and one at 6 months. Socio-economic status of participants was not made explicit; health service utilisation and costs were not reported. No study reported on perceived stress. All studies reported quality of life (QOL), mental health (anxiety and depression), physical (fatigue, standing balance, pain), and psychosocial measures. Statistically significant beneficial effects relating to QOL, mental health, and selected physical health measures were sustained at 3- and 6- month follow up.<p></p> <b>Conclusion</b> From the limited data available, MBIs may benefit some MS patients in terms of QOL, mental health, and some physical health measures. Further studies are needed to clarify how MBIs might best serve the MS population.<p></p&gt

Autologous Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation in Active Multiple Sclerosis: A Real-world Case Series

Objective To examine outcomes in people with multiple sclerosis (PwMS) treated with autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (AHSCT) in a real-world setting. Methods This was a retrospective cohort study of PwMS treated with AHSCT at 2 centers in London, UK, consecutively between 2012 and 2019 who had ≥6 months of follow-up or died at any time. Primary outcomes were survival free of multiple sclerosis (MS) relapses, MRI new lesions, and worsening of Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score. Adverse events rates were also examined. Results The cohort includes 120 PwMS; 52% had progressive MS (primary or secondary) and 48% had relapsing-remitting MS. At baseline, the median EDSS score was 6.0; 90% of the evaluable cases showed MRI activity in the 12 months preceding AHSCT. Median follow-up after AHSCT was 21 months (range 6–85 months). MS relapse-free survival was 93% at 2 years and 87% at 4 years after AHSCT. No new MRI lesions were detected in 90% of participants at 2 years and in 85% at 4 years. EDSS score progression–free survival (PFS) was 75% at 2 years and 65% at 4 years. Epstein-Barr virus reactivation and monoclonal paraproteinemia were associated with worse PFS. There were 3 transplantation-related deaths within 100 days (2.5%), all after fluid overload and cardiac or respiratory failure. Conclusions Efficacy outcomes of AHSCT in this real-world cohort are similar to those reported in more stringently selected clinical trial populations, although the risks may be higher. Classification of Evidence This study is rated Class IV because of the uncontrolled, open-label design

The cortical damage, early relapses, and onset of the progressive phase in multiple sclerosis

Objective To investigate the relationship among cortical radiologic changes, the number of early relapses (ERs), and the long-term course of multiple sclerosis (MS). Methods In this cohort study, we assessed the number of cortical lesions (CLs) and white matter (WM) lesions and the cortical thickness (Cth) at clinical onset and after 7.9 mean years among 219 patients with relapsing remitting (RR) MS with 1 (Low-ER), 2 (Mid-ER), and ≥3 (High-ER) ERs during the first 2 years. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses investigated early factors influencing the risk of secondary progressive (SP) MS. Results Fifty-nine patients (27%) converted to SPMS in 6.1 mean years. A larger number of CLs at onset predicted a higher risk of SPMS (hazard ratio [HR] 2.16, 4.79, and 12.3 for 2, 5, and 7 CLs, respectively, p < 0.001) and shorter latency to progression. The High-ER compared to the Low-ER and Mid-ER groups had a larger volume of WM lesions and CLs at onset, accrued more CLs, experienced more severe cortical atrophy over time, and entered the SP phase more rapidly. In the multivariate model, older age at onset (HR 1.97, p < 0.001), a larger baseline CL (HR 2.21, p = 0.005) and WM lesion (HR 1.32, p = 0.03) volume, early changes of global Cth (HR 1.36, p = 0.03), and ≥3 ERs (HR 6.08, p < 0.001) independently predicted a higher probability of SP. Conclusions Extensive cortical damage at onset is associated with florid inflammatory clinical activity and predisposes to a rapid occurrence of the progressive phase. Age at onset, the number of early attacks, and the extent of baseline focal cortical damage can identify groups at high risk of progression who may benefit from more active therapy

Ageing and recurrent episodes of neuroinflammation promote progressive experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis in Biozzi ABH mice

We gratefully acknowledge the Progressive Multiple Sclerosis Alliance for financial support