A Dynamic Ocean Management Tool to Reduce Bycatch and Support Sustainable Fisheries

Seafood is anessential sourceofprotein formore than3billionpeopleworldwide, yet bycatchof threatened species in capture fisheries remains a major impediment to fisheries sustainability. Management measures designed to reduce bycatch often result in significant economic losses and even fisheries closures. Static spatial management approaches can also be rendered ineffective by environmental variability and climate change, as productive habitats shift and introduce new interactions between human activities and protected species. We introduce a new multispecies and dynamic approach that uses daily satellite data to track ocean features and aligns scales of management, species movement, and fisheries. To accomplish this, we create species distribution models for one target species and three bycatch-sensitive species using both satellite telemetry and fisheries observer data. We then integrate species-specific probabilities of occurrence into a single predictive surface, weighing the contribution of each species by management concern. We find that dynamic closures could be 2 to 10 times smaller than existing static closures while still providing adequate protection of endangered nontarget species. Our results highlight the opportunity to implement near real time management strategies that would both support economically viable fisheries and meet mandated conservation objectives in the face of changing ocean conditions. With recent advances in eco-informatics, dynamic management provides a new climate-ready approach to support sustainable fisheries

Fit to Predict? Ecoinformatics for Predicting the Catchability of a Pelagic Fish in Near Real-Time

The ocean is a dynamic environment inhabited by a diverse array of highly migratory species, many of which are under direct exploitation in targeted fisheries. The timescales of variability in the marine realm coupled with the extreme mobility of ocean-wandering species such as tuna and billfish complicates fisheries management. Developing ecoinformatics solutions that allow for near real-time prediction of the distributions of highly mobile marine species is an important step towards the maturation of dynamic ocean management and ecological forecasting. Using 25 years (1990-2014) of NOAA fisheries\u27 observer data from the California drift gillnet fishery, we model relative probability of occurrence (presence-absence) and catchability (total catch) of broadbill swordfish Xiphias gladius in the California Current System (CCS). Using freely-available environmental datasets and open source software, we explore the physical drivers of regional swordfish distribution. Comparing models built upon remotely-sensed datasets with those built upon a data-assimilative configuration of the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS), we explore trade-offs in model construction and address how physical data can affect predictive performance and operational capacity. Swordfish catchability was found to be highest in deeper waters (\u3e1500m) with surface temperatures in the 14-20 degrees C range, isothermal layer depth (ILD) of 20-40m, positive sea surface height anomalies and during the new moon

Characterizing Habitat Suitability for a Central‐Place Forager in a Dynamic Marine Environment

Characterizing habitat suitability for a marine predator requires an understanding of the environmental heterogeneity and variability over the range in which a population moves during a particular life cycle. Female California sea lions (Zalophus californianus) are central‐place foragers and are particularly constrained while provisioning their young. During this time, habitat selection is a function of prey availability and proximity to the rookery, which has important implications for reproductive and population success. We explore how lactating females may select habitat and respond to environmental variability over broad spatial and temporal scales within the California Current System. We combine near‐real‐time remotely sensed satellite oceanography, animal tracking data (n = 72) from November to February over multiple years (2003–2009) and Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs) to determine the probability of sea lion occurrence based on environmental covariates. Results indicate that sea lion presence is associated with cool (\u3c14°C), productive waters, shallow depths, increased eddy activity, and positive sea‐level anomalies. Predictive habitat maps generated from these biophysical associations suggest winter foraging areas are spatially consistent in the nearshore and offshore environments, except during the 2004–2005 winter, which coincided with an El Niño event. Here, we show how a species distribution model can provide broadscale information on the distribution of female California sea lions during an important life history stage and its implications for population dynamics and spatial management

Positive youth development in swimming: clarification and consensus of key psychosocial assets

The purpose of this study was to gain a more cohesive understanding of the assets considered necessary to develop in young swimmers to ensure both individual and sport specific development. This two stage study involved (a) a content analysis of key papers to develop a list of both psychosocial skills for performance enhancement and assets associated with positive youth development, and (b) in-depth interviews involving ten expert swim coaches, practitioners and youth sport scholars. Five higher order categories containing seventeen individual assets emerged. These results are discussed in relation to both existing models of positive youth development and implications for coaches, practitioners and parents when considering the psychosocial development of young British swimmers

Bifurcations in annular electroconvection with an imposed shear

We report an experimental study of the primary bifurcation in electrically-driven convection in a freely suspended film. A weakly conducting, submicron thick smectic liquid crystal film was supported by concentric circular electrodes. It electroconvected when a sufficiently large voltage $V$ was applied between its inner and outer edges. The film could sustain rapid flows and yet remain strictly two-dimensional. By rotation of the inner electrode, a circular Couette shear could be independently imposed. The control parameters were a dimensionless number ${\cal R}$, analogous to the Rayleigh number, which is $\propto V^2$ and the Reynolds number ${\cal R}e$ of the azimuthal shear flow. The geometrical and material properties of the film were characterized by the radius ratio $\alpha$, and a Prandtl-like number ${\cal P}$. Using measurements of current-voltage characteristics of a large number of films, we examined the onset of electroconvection over a broad range of $\alpha$, ${\cal P}$ and ${\cal R}e$. We compared this data quantitatively to the results of linear stability theory. This could be done with essentially no adjustable parameters. The current-voltage data above onset were then used to infer the amplitude of electroconvection in the weakly nonlinear regime by fitting them to a steady-state amplitude equation of the Landau form. We show how the primary bifurcation can be tuned between supercritical and subcritical by changing $\alpha$ and ${\cal R}e$.Comment: 17 pages, 12 figures. Submitted to Phys. Rev. E. Minor changes after refereeing. See also http://mobydick.physics.utoronto.c

Suitability of PSA-detected localised prostate cancers for focal therapy: Experience from the ProtecT study

This article is available through a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. Copyright @ 2011 Cancer Research UK.Background: Contemporary screening for prostate cancer frequently identifies small volume, low-grade lesions. Some clinicians have advocated focal prostatic ablation as an alternative to more aggressive interventions to manage these lesions. To identify which patients might benefit from focal ablative techniques, we analysed the surgical specimens of a large sample of population-detected men undergoing radical prostatectomy as part of a randomised clinical trial. Methods: Surgical specimens from 525 men who underwent prostatectomy within the ProtecT study were analysed to determine tumour volume, location and grade. These findings were compared with information available in the biopsy specimen to examine whether focal therapy could be provided appropriately. Results: Solitary cancers were found in prostatectomy specimens from 19% (100 out of 525) of men. In addition, 73 out of 425 (17%) men had multiple cancers with a solitary significant tumour focus. Thus, 173 out of 525 (33%) men had tumours potentially suitable for focal therapy. The majority of these were small, well-differentiated lesions that appeared to be pathologically insignificant (38–66%). Criteria used to select patients for focal prostatic ablation underestimated the cancer's significance in 26% (34 out of 130) of men and resulted in overtreatment in more than half. Only 18% (24 out of 130) of men presumed eligible for focal therapy, actually had significant solitary lesions. Conclusion: Focal therapy appears inappropriate for the majority of men presenting with prostate-specific antigen-detected localised prostate cancer. Unifocal prostate cancers suitable for focal ablation are difficult to identify pre-operatively using biopsy alone. Most lesions meeting criteria for focal ablation were either more aggressive than expected or posed little threat of progression.National Institute for Health Researc