Associations Between Eight Earth Observation-Derived Climate Variables and Enteropathogen Infection : An Independent Participant Data Meta-Analysis of Surveillance Studies With Broad Spectrum Nucleic Acid Diagnostics

Diarrheal disease, still a major cause of childhood illness, is caused by numerous, diverse infectious microorganisms, which are differentially sensitive to environmental conditions. Enteropathogen-specific impacts of climate remain underexplored. Results from 15 studies that diagnosed enteropathogens in 64,788 stool samples from 20,760 children in 19 countries were combined. Infection status for 10 common enteropathogens-adenovirus, astrovirus, norovirus, rotavirus, sapovirus, Campylobacter, ETEC, Shigella, Cryptosporidium and Giardia-was matched by date with hydrometeorological variables from a global Earth observation dataset-precipitation and runoff volume, humidity, soil moisture, solar radiation, air pressure, temperature, and wind speed. Models were fitted for each pathogen, accounting for lags, nonlinearity, confounders, and threshold effects. Different variables showed complex, non-linear associations with infection risk varying in magnitude and direction depending on pathogen species. Rotavirus infection decreased markedly following increasing 7-day average temperatures-a relative risk of 0.76 (95% confidence interval: 0.69-0.85) above 28 degrees C-while ETEC risk increased by almost half, 1.43 (1.36-1.50), in the 20-35 degrees C range. Risk for all pathogens was highest following soil moistures in the upper range. Humidity was associated with increases in bacterial infections and decreases in most viral infections. Several virus species' risk increased following lower-than-average rainfall, while rotavirus and ETEC increased with heavier runoff. Temperature, soil moisture, and humidity are particularly influential parameters across all enteropathogens, likely impacting pathogen survival outside the host. Precipitation and runoff have divergent associations with different enteric viruses. These effects may engender shifts in the relative burden of diarrhea-causing agents as the global climate changes. Plain Language Summary Diarrheal disease is a big health problem for children. It can be caused by different bugs, which can be caught more easily in certain weather conditions, though not much is understood about this because the climate varies so much from one place to the next. This study combined data from many different countries where diarrhea-causing bugs were diagnosed in children's stool. Satellites recorded what the weather was like on the day each sample was collected. Rotavirus is easiest to catch in cold weather and when water washes over the ground after rain. Dry weather also makes it and other viruses easy to catch. Bacteria spread best when the air is warm and humid, and the soil moist, though one type of E. coli can also be spread in rainwater. Climate change will make dry places drier, wet places wetter and everywhere warmer. This might lead to more diarrhea caused by bacteria and less by viruses in some places, though places with moist soil might see more of every kind of bug.Peer reviewe

Spatiotemporal variation in risk of Shigella infection in childhood : a global risk mapping and prediction model using individual participant data

BACKGROUND: Diarrhoeal disease is a leading cause of childhood illness and death globally, and Shigella is a major aetiological contributor for which a vaccine might soon be available. The primary objective of this study was to model the spatiotemporal variation in paediatric Shigella infection and map its predicted prevalence across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). METHODS: Individual participant data for Shigella positivity in stool samples were sourced from multiple LMIC-based studies of children aged 59 months or younger. Covariates included household-level and participant-level factors ascertained by study investigators and environmental and hydrometeorological variables extracted from various data products at georeferenced child locations. Multivariate models were fitted and prevalence predictions obtained by syndrome and age stratum. FINDINGS: 20 studies from 23 countries (including locations in Central America and South America, sub-Saharan Africa, and south and southeast Asia) contributed 66 563 sample results. Age, symptom status, and study design contributed most to model performance followed by temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, and soil moisture. Probability of Shigella infection exceeded 20% when both precipitation and soil moisture were above average and had a 43% peak in uncomplicated diarrhoea cases at 33°C temperatures, above which it decreased. Compared with unimproved sanitation, improved sanitation decreased the odds of Shigella infection by 19% (odds ratio [OR]=0·81 [95% CI 0·76-0·86]) and open defecation decreased them by 18% (OR=0·82 [0·76-0·88]). INTERPRETATION: The distribution of Shigella is more sensitive to climatological factors, such as temperature, than previously recognised. Conditions in much of sub-Saharan Africa are particularly propitious for Shigella transmission, although hotspots also occur in South America and Central America, the Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta, and the island of New Guinea. These findings can inform prioritisation of populations for future vaccine trials and campaigns. FUNDING: NASA, National Institutes of Health-The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.publishedVersionPeer reviewe

Differential Overlap in Human and Animal Fecal Microbiomes and Resistomes in Rural versus Urban Bangladesh

Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) bear the largest mortality burden of antibiotic-resistant infections. Small-scale animal production and free-roaming domestic animals are common in many LMICs, yet data on zoonotic exchange of gut bacteria and antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) in low-income communities are sparse. Differences between rural and urban communities with regard to population density, antibiotic use, and cohabitation with animals likely influence the frequency of transmission of gut bacterial communities and ARGs between humans and animals. Here, we determined the similarity in gut microbiomes, using 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing, and resistomes, using long-read metagenomics, between humans, chickens, and goats in a rural community compared to an urban community in Bangladesh. Gut microbiomes were more similar between humans and chickens in the rural (where cohabitation is more common) than the urban community, but there was no difference for humans and goats in the rural versus the urban community. Human and goat resistomes were more similar in the urban community, and ARG abundance was higher in urban animals than rural animals. We identified substantial overlap of ARG alleles in humans and animals in both settings. Humans and chickens had more overlapping ARG alleles than humans and goats. All fecal hosts from the urban community and rural humans carried ARGs on chromosomal contigs classified as potentially pathogenic bacteria, including Escherichia coli, Campylobacter jejuni, Clostridioides difficile, and Klebsiella pneumoniae. These findings provide insight into the breadth of ARGs circulating within human and animal populations in a rural compared to urban community in Bangladesh. IMPORTANCE While the development of antibiotic resistance in animal gut microbiomes and subsequent transmission to humans has been demonstrated in intensive farming environments and high-income countries, evidence of zoonotic exchange of antibiotic resistance in LMIC communities is lacking. This research provides genomic evidence of overlap of antibiotic resistance genes between humans and animals, especially in urban communities, and highlights chickens as important reservoirs of antibiotic resistance. Chicken and human gut microbiomes were more similar in rural Bangladesh, where cohabitation is more common. Incorporation of long-read metagenomics enabled characterization of bacterial hosts of resistance genes, which has not been possible in previous culture-independent studies using only short-read sequencing. These findings highlight the importance of developing strategies for combatting antibiotic resistance that account for chickens being reservoirs of ARGs in community environments, especially in urban areas

A framework to monitor changes in transmission and epidemiology of emerging pathogens: Lessons from Nipah virus

International audienceIt is of uttermost importance that the global health community develops the surveillance capability to effectively monitor emerging zoonotic pathogens that constitute a major and evolving threat for human health. Here, we propose a comprehensive framework to measure changes in (i) spillover risk, (ii) interhuman transmission, and (iii) morbidity/mortality associated with infections based on six epidemiological key indicators derived from routine surveillance. We demonstrate the indicators' value for the retrospective or real-time assessment of changes in transmission and epidemiological characteristics using data collected through a long-standing, systematic, hospital-based surveillance system for Nipah virus in Bangladesh. We show that while interhuman transmission and morbidity/mortality indicators were stable, the number and geographic extent of spillovers varied significantly over time. Such combination of systematic surveillance and active tracking of transmission and epidemiological indicators should be applied to other high risk emerging pathogens to prevent public health emergencies

The economic burden of rotavirus hospitalization among children < 5 years of age in selected hospitals in Bangladesh

Background: Rotavirus is a common cause of severe acute gastroenteritis among young children. Estimation of the economic burden would provide informed decision about investment on prevention strategies (e.g., vaccine and/or behavior change), which has been a potential policy discussion in Bangladesh for several years. Methods: We estimated the societal costs of children &lt;5 years for hospitalization from rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) and incidences of catastrophic health expenditure. A total of 360 children with stool specimens positive for rotavirus were included in this study from 6 tertiary hospitals (3 public and 3 private). We interviewed the caregiver of the patient and hospital staff to collect cost from patient and health facility perspectives. We estimated the economic cost considering 2015 as the reference year. Results: The total societal per-patient costs to treat RVGE in the public hospital were 126 USD (95% CI: 116–136) and total household costs were 161 USD (95% CI: 145–177) in private facilities. Direct costs constituted 38.1% of total household costs. The out-of-pocket payments for RVGE hospitalization was 23% of monthly income and 76% of households faced catastrophic healthcare expenditures due to this expense. The estimated total annual household treatment cost for the country was 10 million USD. Conclusions: A substantial economic burden of RVGE in Bangladesh was observed in this study. Any prevention of RVGE through cost-effective vaccination or/and behavioural change would contribute to substantial economic benefits to Bangladesh

Changing Contact Patterns Over Disease Progression: Nipah Virus as a Case Study

International audienceAbstract Contact patterns play a key role in disease transmission, and variation in contacts during the course of illness can influence transmission, particularly when accompanied by changes in host infectiousness. We used surveys among 1642 contacts of 94 Nipah virus case patients in Bangladesh to determine how contact patterns (physical and with bodily fluids) changed as disease progressed in severity. The number of contacts increased with severity and, for case patients who died, peaked on the day of death. Given transmission has only been observed among fatal cases of Nipah virus infection, our findings suggest that changes in contact patterns during illness contribute to risk of infection

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the Population Living in High- and Low-Density Gradient Areas in Dhaka, Bangladesh

Community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in densely populated countries has been a topic of concern from the beginning of the pandemic. Evidence of community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 according to population density gradient and socio-economic status (SES) is limited. In June&ndash;September 2020, we conducted a descriptive longitudinal study to determine the community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in high- and low-density areas in Dhaka city. The Secondary Attack Rate (SAR) was 10% in high-density areas compared to 20% in low-density areas. People with high SES had a significantly higher level of SARS-CoV-2-specific Immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies on study days 1 (p = 0.01) and 28 (p = 0.03) compared to those with low SES in high-density areas. In contrast, the levels of seropositivity of SARS-CoV-2-specific Immunoglobulin M (IgM) were comparable (p &gt; 0.05) in people with high and low SES on both study days 1 and 28 in both high- and low-density areas. Due to the similar household size, no differences in the seropositivity rates depending on the population gradient were observed. However, people with high SES showed higher seroconversion rates compared to people with low SES. As no difference was observed based on population density, the SES might play a role in SARS-CoV-2 transmission, an issue that calls for further in-depth studies to better understand the community transmission of SARS-CoV-2