County Level Economic Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections

This thesis seeks to understand the relationship between county level economic voting and county level economic voting by demographic group on county level vote shares for U.S. presidential elections. Using an entity and time fixed effects regression model, I study the effects that county level growth in real per capita personal income and unemployment rate change have on county level two-party vote share for the Democratic Party. Additionally, I observe the responsiveness of a county’s voting behavior due to the demographic makeup of that specific county. I then compare my initial results to those of Eisenberg and Ketcham (2004) for the 1992-2000 presidential elections. I utilize the same models for the 2004-2012 elections to compare these results to those from the 1992-2000 elections. Additionally, I rerun my model for the 1992-2000 presidential elections, after restricting my economic data to non-outliers, to study the effects that outliers in economic conditions have on my original results

Two-year follow-up of the patients included in the WHO International Pilot Study of Schizophrenia

Over 90% of the 1202 patients investigated in the 9 centres collaborating in the International Pilot Study of Schizophrenia were traced 2 years after the initial examination and on the average over 75% of them were re-examined, using standardized instruments and methods. Results indicate that patients diagnosed as schizophrenic on the basis of standardized assessments and clearly specified diagnostic criteria demonstrated very marked variations of course and outcome over a 2-year period. Schizophrenic patients in the centres in developing countries had considerably better course and outcome than schizophrenic patients in the centres in developed countrie

WHO International Pilot Study of Schizophrenia

The results are described of a transcultural psychiatric study of schizophrenia undertaken by WHO in nine countries. The study proved that such a collaboration was feasible, that it was possible to develop research procedures for international use, and that similar types of schizophrenia could be found in each of the countries involved. One thousand two hundred and two patients were studied and over 2 million items of information obtaine

Reported stigma and discrimination by people with a diagnosis of schizophrenia

Aims. This article examines the extent of stigma and discrimination as reported by people with a diagnosis of schizophrenia. The hypothesis is that when people express in their own words the discrimination they experience such discrimination will be found to be widespread. Methods. Seventy-five people with a diagnosis of schizophrenia from 15 different countries were interviewed with a mixed methods instrument to assess reported discrimination. The data were analysed for frequency counts and then a thematic analysis was performed. A conceptual map is provided. Results. The study was a cross-cultural one but, contrary to expectations, few transnational differences were found. The main hypothesis was supported. Conversely, we found that when participants reported ‘positive discrimination', this could as easily be conceptualised as being treated similarly to how others in society would expect to be treated. Conclusion. Negative discrimination is ubiquitous and sometimes connotatively very strong, with reports of humiliation and abuse. ‘Positive discrimination' conversely indicates that people with a mental illness diagnosis expect discrimination and are grateful when it does not occur. The literature on self-stigma is discussed and found wanting. Similarly, the theory that contact with mentally ill people reduces stigma and discrimination is not fully supported by our result

Modeling of Self-Pulsating DFB Lasers

A theoretical model of a self-pulsating three section DFB-laser with an integrated phase tuning section is established. It is based on traveling wave equations and the standard carrier rate equations. As the key conditions for obtaining self-pulsations the spectral correlation of the different device sections are considered. The specific roles of each section are discussed and the theoretical results are compared to experimental measurements on these devices

Classifying snakebite in South Africa: Validating a scoring system

Objective. To develop and validate a scoring system for managing snakebites in South Africa (SA). Methods. We studied all snakebite admissions to a regional hospital in KwaZulu-Natal, SA. The primary outcome was an active treatment intervention (ATI) defined as antivenom treatment or any surgical procedure. The development cohort consisted of 879 patients with snakebite who presented to the Ngwelezane Hospital Emergency Department from December 2008 to December 2013. Factors predictive of ATI and the optimal cut-off score for predicting an ATI were identified. These factors were then used to develop a standard scoring system. The score was then tested prospectively for accuracy in a new validation cohort consisting of 100 patients admitted for snakebite to our unit from 1 December 2014 to 31 March 2015. Accuracy of the score was determined. Results. Of 879 snakebite admissions, 146 in the development cohort and 40 of 100 in the development validation cohort reached the primary endpoint of an ATI. Six risk predictors for ATI were identified from the development cohort: age 7 hours (OR 4.63), white cell count >10 � 109/L (OR 3.15), platelets 1.2 (OR 2.25). Each risk predictor was assigned a score of 1; receiver operating characteristic curve analysis returned a value of >4 out of 6 as the optimal cut-off for prediction of an ATI (area under the curve 0.804; 95% confidence interval 0.758-0.84). Testing of the score on the validation cohort produced a specificity of 96.6% and a sensitivity of 22.5%. The positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 81.8% and 65.2%, respectively. Conclusion. Our results show that the identified score is a useful adjunct to clinical assessment in managing snakebite. Its value is greatest when used in those patients who fall in the mild to moderate clinical category. Until our severity score has been validated (or modified) for use across SA, we propose to name it the Zululand Severity Score; a true SA Severity Score may follow

Classifying snakebite in South Africa: Validating a scoring system

Objective. To develop and validate a scoring system for managing snakebites in South Africa (SA).Methods. We studied all snakebite admissions to a regional hospital in KwaZulu-Natal, SA. The primary outcome was an active treatment intervention (ATI) defined as antivenom treatment or any surgical procedure. The development cohort consisted of 879 patients with snakebite who presented to the Ngwelezane Hospital Emergency Department from December 2008 to December 2013. Factors predictive of ATI and the optimal cut-off score for predicting an ATI were identified. These factors were then used to develop a standard scoring system.  The score was then tested prospectively for accuracy in a new validation cohort consisting of 100 patients admitted for snakebite to our unit from 1 December 2014 to 31 March 2015. Accuracy of the score was determined.Results. Of 879 snakebite admissions, 146 in the development cohort and 40 of 100 in the development validation cohort reached the primary endpoint of an ATI. Six risk predictors for ATI were identified from the development cohort: age <14 years (odds ratio (OR) 2.13), delay to admission >7 hours (OR 4.63), white cell count >10 × 109/L (OR 3.15), platelets <92 × 109/L (OR 2.35), haemoglobin <7.1 g/dL (OR 5.68), international normalised ratio >1.2 (OR 2.25).  Each risk predictor was assigned a score of 1; receiver operating characteristic curve analysis returned a value of >4 out of 6 as the optimal cut-off for prediction of an ATI (area under the curve 0.804; 95% confidence interval 0.758 - 0.84). Testing of the score on the validation cohort produced a specificity of 96.6% and a sensitivity of 22.5%. The positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 81.8% and 65.2%, respectively.Conclusion. Our results show that the identified score is a useful adjunct to clinical assessment in managing snakebite. Its value is greatest when used in those patients who fall in the mild to moderate clinical category. Until our severity score has been validated (or modified) for use across SA, we propose to name it the Zululand Severity Score; a true SA Severity Score may follow

Does depression diagnosis and antidepressant prescribing vary by location? Analysis of ethnic density associations using a large primary-care dataset

BACKGROUND: Studies have linked ethnic differences in depression rates with neighbourhood ethnic density although results have not been conclusive. We looked at this using a novel approach analysing whole population data covering just over one million GP patients in four London boroughs. METHOD: Using a dataset of GP records for all patients registered in Lambeth, Hackney, Tower Hamlets and Newham in 2013 we investigated new diagnoses of depression and antidepressant use for: Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi, black Caribbean and black African patients. Neighbourhood effects were assessed independently of GP practice using a cross-classified multilevel model. RESULTS: Black and minority ethnic groups are up to four times less likely to be newly diagnosed with depression or prescribed antidepressants compared to white British patients. We found an inverse relationship between neighbourhood ethnic density and new depression diagnosis for some groups, where an increase of 10% own-ethnic density was associated with a statistically significant (p < 0.05) reduced odds of depression for Pakistani [odds ratio (OR) 0.81, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.70-0.93], Indian (OR 0.88, CI 0.81-0.95), African (OR 0.88, CI 0.78-0.99) and Bangladeshi (OR 0.94, CI 0.90-0.99) patients. Black Caribbean patients, however, showed the opposite effect (OR 1.26, CI 1.09-1.46). The results for antidepressant use were very similar although the corresponding effect for black Caribbeans was no longer statistically significant (p = 0.07). CONCLUSION: New depression diagnosis and antidepressant use was shown to be less likely in areas of higher own-ethnic density for some, but not all, ethnic groups

Frequency locking of modulated waves

We consider the behavior of a modulated wave solution to an $\mathbb{S}^1$-equivariant autonomous system of differential equations under an external forcing of modulated wave type. The modulation frequency of the forcing is assumed to be close to the modulation frequency of the modulated wave solution, while the wave frequency of the forcing is supposed to be far from that of the modulated wave solution. We describe the domain in the three-dimensional control parameter space (of frequencies and amplitude of the forcing) where stable locking of the modulation frequencies of the forcing and the modulated wave solution occurs. Our system is a simplest case scenario for the behavior of self-pulsating lasers under the influence of external periodically modulated optical signals

The age of anxiety? It depends where you look: changes in STAI trait anxiety, 1970–2010

Purpose Population-level surveys suggest that anxiety has been increasing in several nations, including the USA and UK. We sought to verify the apparent anxiety increases by looking for systematic changes in mean anxiety questionnaire scores from research publications. Methods We analyzed all available mean State–Trait Anxiety Inventory scores published between 1970 and 2010. We collected 1703 samples, representing more than 205,000 participants from 57 nations. Results Results showed a significant anxiety increase worldwide, but the pattern was less clear in many individual nations. Our analyses suggest that any increase in anxiety in the USA and Canada may be limited to students, anxiety has decreased in the UK, and has remained stable in Australia. Conclusions Although anxiety may have increased worldwide, it might not be increasing as dramatically as previously thought, except in specific populations, such as North American students. Our results seem to contradict survey results from the USA and UK in particular. We do not claim that our results are more reliable than those of large population surveys. However, we do suggest that mental health surveys and other governmental sources of disorder prevalence data may be partially biased by changing attitudes toward mental health: if respondents are more aware and less ashamed of their anxiety, they are more likely to report it to survey takers. Analyses such as ours provide a useful means of double-checking apparent trends in large population surveys