Probing dark energy with cluster counts and cosmic shear power spectra: including the full covariance

(Abridged) Combining cosmic shear power spectra and cluster counts is powerful to improve cosmological parameter constraints and/or test inherent systematics. However they probe the same cosmic mass density field, if the two are drawn from the same survey region, and therefore the combination may be less powerful than first thought. We investigate the cross-covariance between the cosmic shear power spectra and the cluster counts based on the halo model approach, where the cross-covariance arises from the three-point correlations of the underlying mass density field. Fully taking into account the cross-covariance as well as non-Gaussian errors on the lensing power spectrum covariance, we find a significant cross-correlation between the lensing power spectrum signals at multipoles l~10^3 and the cluster counts containing halos with masses M>10^{14}Msun. Including the cross-covariance for the combined measurement degrades and in some cases improves the total signal-to-noise ratios up to plus or minus 20% relative to when the two are independent. For cosmological parameter determination, the cross-covariance has a smaller effect as a result of working in a multi-dimensional parameter space, implying that the two observables can be considered independent to a good approximation. We also discuss that cluster count experiments using lensing-selected mass peaks could be more complementary to cosmic shear tomography than mass-selected cluster counts of the corresponding mass threshold. Using lensing selected clusters with a realistic usable detection threshold (S/N~6 for a ground-based survey), the uncertainty on each dark energy parameter may be roughly halved by the combined experiments, relative to using the power spectra alone.Comment: 32 pages, 15 figures. Revised version, invited original contribution to gravitational lensing focus issue, New Journal of Physic

Assessing the external validity of successive negative contrast – implications for animal welfare

When unexpectedly switched from a preferred to a less preferred food reward, non-human animals may decrease consumption below that when only receiving the less preferred reward - a successive negative contrast (SNC) effect. SNC has been proposed as an indicator of animal welfare, however, to be an effective measure it should show external validity; by being demonstrable outside of highly standardised laboratory settings. We therefore investigated whether the SNC effect typically shown in laboratory rats could be observed in owned (pet) rats from heterogeneous non-laboratory environments. Subjects (N=14) were tested in a consummatory SNC paradigm with solid food rewards. Rats in the ‘shifted’ group received a high-value reward for ten days (pre-shift), a low-value reward for six days (post-shift), then one additional day of high-value reward (re-shift). Rats in the ‘unshifted’ group always received the same low-value reward. ‘Shifted’ rats consumed more food during pre-shift and re-shift trials, but ate significantly less of the low-value food than ‘unshifted’ animals in the post-shift trials – a SNC effect. This confirms the external validity of the SNC paradigm, extending reproducibility to outside the laboratory, indicating that it can translate across contexts, thus enhancing its potential use as a welfare indicator

Multi-Messenger Gravitational Wave Searches with Pulsar Timing Arrays: Application to 3C66B Using the NANOGrav 11-year Data Set

When galaxies merge, the supermassive black holes in their centers may form binaries and, during the process of merger, emit low-frequency gravitational radiation in the process. In this paper we consider the galaxy 3C66B, which was used as the target of the first multi-messenger search for gravitational waves. Due to the observed periodicities present in the photometric and astrometric data of the source of the source, it has been theorized to contain a supermassive black hole binary. Its apparent 1.05-year orbital period would place the gravitational wave emission directly in the pulsar timing band. Since the first pulsar timing array study of 3C66B, revised models of the source have been published, and timing array sensitivities and techniques have improved dramatically. With these advances, we further constrain the chirp mass of the potential supermassive black hole binary in 3C66B to less than $(1.65\pm0.02) \times 10^9~{M_\odot}$ using data from the NANOGrav 11-year data set. This upper limit provides a factor of 1.6 improvement over previous limits, and a factor of 4.3 over the first search done. Nevertheless, the most recent orbital model for the source is still consistent with our limit from pulsar timing array data. In addition, we are able to quantify the improvement made by the inclusion of source properties gleaned from electromagnetic data to `blind' pulsar timing array searches. With these methods, it is apparent that it is not necessary to obtain exact a priori knowledge of the period of a binary to gain meaningful astrophysical inferences.Comment: 14 pages, 6 figures. Accepted by Ap

In vitro and in vivo modeling of lipid bioaccessibility and digestion from almond muffins: the importance of the cell-wall barrier mechanism

This study compares in vitro and in vivo models of lipid digestion from almond particles within a complex food matrix (muffins) investigating whether the cell-wall barrier regulates the bioaccessibility of nutrients within this matrix. Muffins containing small (AF) or large (AP) particles of almond were digested in triplicate using an in vitro dynamic gastric model (DGM, 1 h) followed by a static duodenal digestion (8 h). AF muffins had 97.1 ± 1.7% of their lipid digested, whereas AP muffins had 57.6 ± 1.1% digested. In vivo digestion of these muffins by an ileostomy volunteer (0–10 h) gave similar results with 96.5% and 56.5% lipid digested, respectively. The AF muffins produced a higher postprandial triacylglycerol iAUC response (by 61%) than the AP muffins. Microstructural analysis showed that some lipid remained encapsulated within the plant tissue throughout digestion. The cell-wall barrier mechanism is the main factor in regulating lipid bioaccessibility from almond particles

Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus outbreak in a school in London, April-May 2009: an observational study

On 29 April 2009, an imported case of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus infection was detected in a London school. As further cases, pupils and staff members were identified, school closure and mass prophylaxis were implemented. An observational descriptive study was conducted to provide an insight into the clinical presentation and transmission dynamics in this setting. Between 15 April and 15 May 2009, 91 symptomatic cases were identified: 33 were confirmed positive for pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus infection; 57 were tested negative; in one the results were unavailable. Transmission occurred first within the school, and subsequently outside. Attack rates were 2% in pupils (15% in the 11–12 years age group) and 17% in household contacts. The predominant symptoms were fever (97%), respiratory symptoms (91%), and sore throat (79%). Limited spread in the school may have been due to a combination of school closure and mass prophylaxis. However, transmission continued through household contacts to other schools

The NANOGrav 11-year Data Set: High-precision Timing of 45 Millisecond Pulsars

We present high-precision timing data over time spans of up to 11 years for 45 millisecond pulsars observed as part of the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) project, aimed at detecting and characterizing low-frequency gravitational waves. The pulsars were observed with the Arecibo Observatory and/or the Green Bank Telescope at frequencies ranging from 327 MHz to 2.3 GHz. Most pulsars were observed with approximately monthly cadence, and six high-timing-precision pulsars were observed weekly. All were observed at widely separated frequencies at each observing epoch in order to fit for time-variable dispersion delays. We describe our methods for data processing, time-of-arrival (TOA) calculation, and the implementation of a new, automated method for removing outlier TOAs. We fit a timing model for each pulsar that includes spin, astrometric, and (for binary pulsars) orbital parameters; time-variable dispersion delays; and parameters that quantify pulse-profile evolution with frequency. The timing solutions provide three new parallax measurements, two new Shapiro delay measurements, and two new measurements of significant orbital-period variations. We fit models that characterize sources of noise for each pulsar. We find that 11 pulsars show significant red noise, with generally smaller spectral indices than typically measured for non-recycled pulsars, possibly suggesting a different origin. A companion paper uses these data to constrain the strength of the gravitational-wave background

The NANOGrav 12.5-Year Data Set: Dispersion Measure Mis-Estimation with Varying Bandwidths

Noise characterization for pulsar-timing applications accounts for interstellar dispersion by assuming a known frequency-dependence of the delay it introduces in the times of arrival (TOAs). However, calculations of this delay suffer from mis-estimations due to other chromatic effects in the observations. The precision in modeling dispersion is dependent on the observed bandwidth. In this work, we calculate the offsets in infinite-frequency TOAs due to mis-estimations in the modeling of dispersion when using varying bandwidths at the Green Bank Telescope. We use a set of broadband observations of PSR J1643-1224, a pulsar with an excess of chromatic noise in its timing residuals. We artificially restricted these observations to a narrowband frequency range, then used both data sets to calculate residuals with a timing model that does not include short-scale dispersion variations. By fitting the resulting residuals to a dispersion model, and comparing the ensuing fitted parameters, we quantify the dispersion mis-estimations. Moreover, by calculating the autocovariance function of the parameters we obtained a characteristic timescale over which the dispersion mis-estimations are correlated. For PSR J1643-1224, which has one of the highest dispersion measures (DM) in the NANOGrav pulsar timing array, we find that the infinite-frequency TOAs suffer from a systematic offset of ~22 microseconds due to DM mis-estimations, with correlations over ~1 month. For lower-DM pulsars, the offset is ~7 microseconds. This error quantification can be used to provide more robust noise modeling in NANOGrav's data, thereby increasing sensitivity and improving parameter estimation in gravitational wave searches.Comment: 15 pages, 7 figure

Repeat controlled human malaria infection of healthy UK adults with blood-stage plasmodium falciparum:Safety and parasite growth dynamics

In endemic settings it is known that natural malaria immunity is gradually acquired following repeated exposures. Here we sought to assess whether similar acquisition of blood-stage malaria immunity would occur following repeated parasite exposure by controlled human malaria infection (CHMI). We report the findings of repeat homologous blood-stage Plasmodium falciparum (3D7 clone) CHMI studies VAC063C (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03906474) and VAC063 (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02927145). In total, 24 healthy, unvaccinated, malaria-naïve UK adult participants underwent primary CHMI followed by drug treatment. Ten of these then underwent secondary CHMI in the same manner, and then six of these underwent a final tertiary CHMI. As with primary CHMI, malaria symptoms were common following secondary and tertiary infection, however, most resolved within a few days of treatment and there were no long term sequelae or serious adverse events related to CHMI. Despite detectable induction and boosting of anti-merozoite serum IgG antibody responses following each round of CHMI, there was no clear evidence of anti-parasite immunity (manifest as reduced parasite growth in vivo) conferred by repeated challenge with the homologous parasite in the majority of volunteers. However, three volunteers showed some variation in parasite growth dynamics in vivo following repeat CHMI that were either modest or short-lived. We also observed no major differences in clinical symptoms or laboratory markers of infection across the primary, secondary and tertiary challenges. However, there was a trend to more severe pyrexia after primary CHMI and the absence of a detectable transaminitis post-treatment following secondary and tertiary infection. We hypothesize that this could represent the initial induction of clinical immunity. Repeat homologous blood-stage CHMI is thus safe and provides a model with the potential to further the understanding of naturally acquired immunity to blood-stage infection in a highly controlled setting. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, identifier NCT03906474, NCT02927145

Diagnoses, problems and healthcare interventions amongst older people with an unscheduled hospital admission who have concurrent mental health problems: a prevalence study

Background Frail older people with mental health problems including delirium, dementia and depression are often admitted to general hospitals. However, hospital admission may cause distress, and can be associated with complications. Some commentators suggest that their healthcare needs could be better met elsewhere. Methods We studied consecutive patients aged 70 or older admitted for emergency medical or trauma care to an 1800 bed general hospital which provided sole emergency medical and trauma services for its local population. Patients were screened for mental health problems, and those screening positive were invited to take part. 250 participants were recruited and a sub-sample of 53 patients was assessed by a geriatrician for diagnoses, impairments and disabilities, healthcare interventions and outstanding needs. Results Median age was 86 years, median Mini-Mental State Examination score at admission was 16/30, and 45% had delirium. 19% lived in a care home prior to admission. All the patients were complex. A wide range of main admission diagnoses was recorded, and these were usually complicated by falls, immobility, pain, delirium, dehydration or incontinence. There was a median of six active diagnoses, and eight active problems. One quarter of problems was unexplained. A median of 13 interventions was recorded, and a median of a further four interventions suggested by the geriatrician. Those with more severe cognitive impairment had no less medical need. Conclusions This patient group, admitted to hospital in the United Kingdom, had numerous healthcare problems, and by implication, extensive healthcare needs. Patients with simpler conditions were not identified, but may have already been rapidly discharged or redirected to non-hospital services by the time assessments were made. To meet the needs of this group outside the hospital would need considerable investment in medical, nursing, therapy and diagnostic facilities. In the meantime, acute hospitals should adapt to deliver comprehensive geriatric assessment, and provide for their mental health needs