36 research outputs found
Guidance on quantitative pest risk assessment
This Guidance describes a two-phase approach for a fit-for-purpose method for the assessment of
plant pest risk in the territory of the EU. Phase one consists of pest categorisation to determine
whether the pest has the characteristics of a quarantine pest or those of a regulated non-quarantine
pest for the area of the EU. Phase two consists of pest risk assessment, which may be requested by
the risk managers following the pest categorisation results. This Guidance provides a template for pest
categorisation and describes in detail the use of modelling and expert knowledge elicitation to conduct
a pest risk assessment. The Guidance provides support and a framework for assessors to provide
quantitative estimates, together with associated uncertainties, regarding the entry, establishment,
spread and impact of plant pests in the EU. The Guidance allows the effectiveness of risk reducing
options (RROs) to be quantitatively assessed as an integral part of the assessment framework. A list of
RROs is provided. A two-tiered approach is proposed for the use of expert knowledge elicitation and
modelling. Depending on data and resources available and the needs of risk managers, pest entry,
establishment, spread and impact steps may be assessed directly, using weight of evidence and
quantitative expert judgement (first tier), or they may be elaborated in substeps using quantitative
models (second tier). An example of an application of the first tier approach is provided. Guidance is
provided on how to derive models of appropriate complexity to conduct a second tier assessment.
Each assessment is operationalised using Monte Carlo simulations that can compare scenarios for
relevant factors, e.g. with or without RROs. This document provides guidance on how to compare
scenarios to draw conclusions on the magnitude of pest risks and the effectiveness of RROs and on
how to communicate assessment results
Publisher Correction: Science diplomacy for plant health
Correction to: Nature Plants https://doi.org/10.1038/s41477-020-0744-x, published online 11 August 2020.1 PĂĄg.An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.In the version of this Comment originally published, in the penultimate paragraph of the section âSteps towards global phytosanitary research coordinationâ the second sentence incorrectly defined IPPC as âIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Changeâ, though it was cor rectly defined earlier as âInternational Plant Protection Conventionâ; the sentence has now been corrected to read âIdeally, they should benefit from the reputation of a United Nations mandate convention, such as the IPPCâŠâPeer reviewe