A multi-institutional experience in adventitial cystic disease

AbstractBackgroundAdventitial cystic disease (ACD) is an unusual arteriopathy; case reports and small series constitute the available literature regarding treatment. We sought to examine the presentation, contemporary management, and long-term outcomes using a multi-institutional database.MethodsUsing a standardized database, 14 institutions retrospectively collected demographics, comorbidities, presentation/symptoms, imaging, treatment, and follow-up data on consecutive patients treated for ACD during a 10-year period, using Society for Vascular Surgery reporting standards for limb ischemia. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed comparing treatment methods and factors associated with recurrent intervention. Life-table analysis was performed to estimate the freedom from reintervention in comparing the various treatment modalities.ResultsForty-seven patients (32 men, 15 women; mean age, 43 years) were identified with ACD involving the popliteal artery (n = 41), radial artery (n = 3), superficial/common femoral artery (n = 2), and common femoral vein (n = 1). Lower extremity claudication was seen in 93% of ACD of the leg arteries, whereas patients with upper extremity ACD had hand or arm pain. Preoperative diagnosis was made in 88% of patients, primarily using cross-sectional imaging of the lower extremity; mean lower extremity ankle-brachial index was 0.71 in the affected limb. Forty-one patients with lower extremity ACD underwent operative repair (resection with interposition graft, 21 patients; cyst resection, 13 patients; cyst resection with bypass graft, 5 patients; cyst resection with patch, 2 patients). Two patients with upper extremity ACD underwent cyst drainage without resection or arterial reconstruction. Complications, including graft infection, thrombosis, hematoma, and wound dehiscence, occurred in 12% of patients. Mean lower extremity ankle-brachial index at 3 months postoperatively improved to 1.07 (P < .001), with an overall mean follow-up of 20 months (range, 0.33-9 years). Eight patients (18%) with lower extremity arterial ACD required reintervention (redo cyst resection, one; thrombectomy, three; redo bypass, one; balloon angioplasty, three) after a mean of 70 days with symptom relief in 88%. Lower extremity patients who underwent cyst resection and interposition or bypass graft were less likely to require reintervention (P = .04). One patient with lower extremity ACD required an above-knee amputation for extensive tissue loss.ConclusionsThis multi-institutional, contemporary experience of ACD examines the treatment and outcomes of ACD. The majority of patients can be identified preoperatively; surgical repair, consisting of cyst excision with arterial reconstruction or bypass alone, provides the best long-term symptomatic relief and reduced need for intervention to maintain patency

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background Accurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios. Methods To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10–54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values—a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy—by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007–21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline. Findings During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137–147), declining to 129 million (121–138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1—canonically considered replacement-level fertility—in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7–29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6–43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1–59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions—decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7–25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3–19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4–10·1) in 2100—but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35–1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction. Interpretation Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world

Predictors and outcomes of restenosis following tibial artery endovascular interventions for critical limb ischemia

ObjectiveRestenosis following tibial artery endovascular interventions (TAEIs) is thought to be benign but is not well characterized. This study examines the consequences and predictors of recurrent stenosis of TAEIs for critical limb ischemia.MethodsAll TAEIs for critical limb ischemia performed between 2004 and 2010 were retrospectively reviewed. Restenosis was detected by noninvasive imaging and angiography when indicated. Restenoses were identified and the limb outcomes recorded. Tibial reinterventions were performed only for persistent, worsening, or recurrent tissue loss or rest pain with evidence of recurrence on duplex ultrasound or hemodynamic imaging. The χ2 test and logistic regression were applied as indicated. One-year patency rates were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method.ResultsA total of 235 limbs in 210 patients were treated for critical limb ischemia (70% tissue loss, 30% rest pain). Tissue loss included gangrene (49%) and ulcers (51%), and involved the forefoot (80%), the heel (14%), or both (6%). Seventy-eight percent of limbs had Trans-Atlantic InterSociety Consensus C/D lesions, with mean preoperative runoff score of 12. Interventions were isolated tibial (45%) or multilevel (55%) (including tibial). Mean postoperative runoff score improved to 6.6, but restenosis occurred in 96 limbs (41%) at a mean of 4 months. The 1-year primary patency was 59% with a mean follow-up of 9 months. Restenosis presented with a persistent wound (32%), worsened wound (42%), rest pain (16%), or no symptoms (10%). A repeat TAEI was performed in 42 (44%), major amputation in 26 (27%), open bypass in 20 (21%), and observation in eight (8%). The overall amputation rate was 13%, but limb loss was significantly higher in patients with restenosis (n = 26 [27%]) than in patients with no restenosis (n = 5 [4%]; P < .001). Patients with restenosis and tissue loss were more likely to have presented with gangrene (63% vs 38%; P = .0003) but had comparable wound distribution (P = NS). There was a trend toward a higher restenosis rate in patients with renal insufficiency (odds ratio, 5.57; P = .08), but this was unaffected by diabetes, statin therapy, or smoking (P = NS). The rate of repeat intervention after the first reintervention was 36%, with an 87% overall limb salvage rate.ConclusionsTAEIs can be used successfully to treat patients with critical limb ischemia with acceptable limb salvage rates. Special attention should be given to patients with extensive tissue loss or gangrene because they are at risk for early restenosis and subsequent limb loss. Strict wound and hemodynamic surveillance, wound care, and timely reinterventions are crucial to achieve successful outcomes in this patient population. Amputation or alternative revascularization options, when feasible, should be considered in patients with restenosis and tissue loss given the high rate of limb loss with tibial reinterventions

A novel pathogenic missense variant in CNNM4 underlying Jalili syndrome: Insights from molecular dynamics simulations

BACKGROUND: Jalili syndrome (JS) is a rare cone-rod dystrophy (CRD) associated with amelogenesis imperfecta (AI). The first clinical presentation of JS patients was published in 1988 by Jalili and Smith. Pathogenic mutations in the Cyclin and CBS Domain Divalent Metal Cation Transport Mediator 4 (CNNM4) magnesium transporter protein have been reported as the leading cause of this anomaly. METHODS: In the present study, a clinical and genetic investigation was performed in a consanguineous family of Pakistani origin, showing characteristic features of JS. Sanger sequencing was successfully used to identify the causative variant in CNNM4. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations were performed to study the effect of amino acid change over CNNM4 protein. RESULTS: Sequence analysis of CNNM4 revealed a novel missense variant (c.1220G>T, p.Arg407Leu) in exon-1 encoding cystathionine-β-synthase (CBS) domain. To comprehend the mutational consequences in the structure, the mutant p.Arg407Leu was modeled together with a previously reported variant (c.1484C>T, p.Thr495Ile) in the same domain. Additionally, docking analysis deciphered the binding mode of the adenosine triphosphate (ATP) cofactor. Furthermore, 60ns MD simulations were carried out on wild type (p.Arg407/p.Thr495) and mutants (p.Arg407Leu/p.Thr495Ile) to understand the structural and energetic changes in protein structure and its dynamic behavior. An evident conformational shift of ATP in the binding site was observed in simulated mutants disrupting the native ATP-binding mode. CONCLUSION: The novel identified variant in CNNM4 is the first report from the Pakistani population. Overall, the study is valuable and may give a novel insight into metal transport in visual function and biomineralization.status: publishe