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Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

New records and detailed distribution and abundance of selected arthropod species collected between 1999 and 2011 in Azorean native forests

In this contribution we present detailed distribution and abundance data for arthropod species identified during the BALA – Biodiversity of Arthropods from the Laurisilva of the Azores (1999-2004) and BALA2 projects (2010-2011) from 18 native forest fragments in seven of the nine Azorean islands (all excluding Graciosa and Corvo islands, which have no native forest left).Of the total 286 species identified, 81% were captured between 1999 and 2000, a period during which only 39% of all the samples were collected. On average, arthropod richness for each island increased by 10% during the time frame of these projects. The classes Arachnida, Chilopoda and Diplopoda represent the most remarkable cases of new island records, with more than 30% of the records being novelties. This study stresses the need to expand the approaches applied in these projects to other habitats in the Azores, and more importantly to other less surveyed taxonomic groups (e.g. Diptera and Hymenoptera). These steps are fundamental for getting a more accurate assessment of biodiversity in the archipelago

New records and detailed distribution and abundance of selected arthropod species collected between 1999 and 2011 in Azorean native forests

In this contribution we present detailed distribution and abundance data for arthropod species identified during the BALA – Biodiversity of Arthropods from the Laurisilva of the Azores (1999-2004) and BALA2 projects (2010-2011) from 18 native forest fragments in seven of the nine Azorean islands (all excluding Graciosa and Corvo islands, which have no native forest left).Of the total 286 species identified, 81% were captured between 1999 and 2000, a period during which only 39% of all the samples were collected. On average, arthropod richness for each island increased by 10% during the time frame of these projects. The classes Arachnida, Chilopoda and Diplopoda represent the most remarkable cases of new island records, with more than 30% of the records being novelties. This study stresses the need to expand the approaches applied in these projects to other habitats in the Azores, and more importantly to other less surveyed taxonomic groups (e.g. Diptera and Hymenoptera). These steps are fundamental for getting a more accurate assessment of biodiversity in the archipelago

Experiencias de éxito en innovación educativa

El trabajo obtuvo un premio de la Modalidad B de los Premios Tomás García Verdejo a las buenas prácticas educativas en la Comunidad Autónoma de Extremadura para el curso 2011/2012Se describe el proyecto innovador del Colegio Diocesano San Atón (Badajoz) basado en una serie de iniciativas pedagógicas que buscan la formación integral de la persona y la mejora del rendimiento escolar de los alumnos. Las actividades descritas son: Proyecto Eco-cuídame del Área de Educación Medioambietal y Desarrollo Sostenible; Proyecto Cronopio y periódico escolar 'La chincheta' del Área de Fomento de la Lectura, la Escritura y el Uso de la Biblioteca Escolar; Proyecto Matiz, Proyecto Viva la Música y Taller de Fotografía del Área para el Desarrollo Artístico y Musical; Proyecto Deportivo del Área de Educación para la Salud y el Fomento de la Práctica Deportiva; Aula virtual Moodle del CDSA del Área de las Tecnologías de la Información y de la Comunicación y Aprendizaje Cooperativo del Área para el Desarrollo de las Capacidades Personales y Éxito del AlumnadoExtremaduraES

Proyecto 'Women's world'

El trabajo obtuvo un Premio Tomás García Verdejo a las buenas prácticas educativas en la Comunidad Autónoma de Extremadura para el curso académico 2015/2016. Modalidad BSe presenta un proyecto llevado a cabo en el Colegio Diocesano San Atón (Badajoz). Siguiendo una metodología de Aprendizaje Basado en Proyectos se pretende trabajar con los alumnos de secundaria y bachillerato la igualdad de sexos y la prevención de la violencia de género. Entre los objetivos del proyecto estaban: reconocer y valorar el papel de la mujer a lo largo de la historia, valorar la educación para prevenir la desigualdad, prevenir en la adolescencia los comportamientos y actitudes que puedan generar situaciones de desigualdad y violencia machista, poner de manifiesto las diferencias existentes en igualdad de oportunidades entre hombres y mujeres, analizar contextos sociales de discriminación hacia la mujer y promover entre la comunidad educativa un compromiso activo y espíritu crítico ante las situaciones de desigualdadExtremaduraES

Unraveling the genetic background of individuals with a clinical familial hypercholesterolemia phenotype

Familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) is a common genetic disorder of lipid metabolism caused by pathogenic/likely pathogenic variants in LDLR, APOB, and PCSK9 genes. Variants in FH-phenocopy genes (LDLRAP1, APOE, LIPA, ABCG5, and ABCG8), polygenic hypercholesterolemia, and hyperlipoprotein (a) [Lp(a)] can also mimic a clinical FH phenotype. We aim to present a new diagnostic tool to unravel the genetic background of clinical FH phenotype. Biochemical and genetic study was performed in 1,005 individuals with clinical diagnosis of FH, referred to the Portuguese FH Study. A next-generation sequencing panel, covering eight genes and eight SNPs to determine LDL-C polygenic risk score and LPA genetic score, was validated, and used in this study. FH was genetically confirmed in 417 index cases: 408 heterozygotes and 9 homozygotes. Cascade screening increased the identification to 1,000 FH individuals, including 11 homozygotes. FH-negative individuals (phenotype positive and genotype negative) have Lp(a) >50 mg/dl (30%), high polygenic risk score (16%), other monogenic lipid metabolism disorders (1%), and heterozygous pathogenic variants in FH-phenocopy genes (2%). Heterozygous variants of uncertain significance were identified in primary genes (12%) and phenocopy genes (7%). Overall, 42% of our cohort was genetically confirmed with FH. In the remaining individuals, other causes for high LDL-C were identified in 68%. Hyper-Lp(a) or polygenic hypercholesterolemia may be the cause of the clinical FH phenotype in almost half of FH-negative individuals. A small part has pathogenic variants in ABCG5/ABCG8 in heterozygosity that can cause hypercholesterolemia and should be further investigated. This extended next-generation sequencing panel identifies individuals with FH and FH-phenocopies, allowing to personalize each person’s treatment according to the affected pathway

Global variation in postoperative mortality and complications after cancer surgery: a multicentre, prospective cohort study in 82 countries

© 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 licenseBackground: 80% of individuals with cancer will require a surgical procedure, yet little comparative data exist on early outcomes in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared postoperative outcomes in breast, colorectal, and gastric cancer surgery in hospitals worldwide, focusing on the effect of disease stage and complications on postoperative mortality. Methods: This was a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of consecutive adult patients undergoing surgery for primary breast, colorectal, or gastric cancer requiring a skin incision done under general or neuraxial anaesthesia. The primary outcome was death or major complication within 30 days of surgery. Multilevel logistic regression determined relationships within three-level nested models of patients within hospitals and countries. Hospital-level infrastructure effects were explored with three-way mediation analyses. This study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03471494. Findings: Between April 1, 2018, and Jan 31, 2019, we enrolled 15 958 patients from 428 hospitals in 82 countries (high income 9106 patients, 31 countries; upper-middle income 2721 patients, 23 countries; or lower-middle income 4131 patients, 28 countries). Patients in LMICs presented with more advanced disease compared with patients in high-income countries. 30-day mortality was higher for gastric cancer in low-income or lower-middle-income countries (adjusted odds ratio 3·72, 95% CI 1·70–8·16) and for colorectal cancer in low-income or lower-middle-income countries (4·59, 2·39–8·80) and upper-middle-income countries (2·06, 1·11–3·83). No difference in 30-day mortality was seen in breast cancer. The proportion of patients who died after a major complication was greatest in low-income or lower-middle-income countries (6·15, 3·26–11·59) and upper-middle-income countries (3·89, 2·08–7·29). Postoperative death after complications was partly explained by patient factors (60%) and partly by hospital or country (40%). The absence of consistently available postoperative care facilities was associated with seven to 10 more deaths per 100 major complications in LMICs. Cancer stage alone explained little of the early variation in mortality or postoperative complications. Interpretation: Higher levels of mortality after cancer surgery in LMICs was not fully explained by later presentation of disease. The capacity to rescue patients from surgical complications is a tangible opportunity for meaningful intervention. Early death after cancer surgery might be reduced by policies focusing on strengthening perioperative care systems to detect and intervene in common complications. Funding: National Institute for Health Research Global Health Research Unit