Prospects for China's economic development in the next decade

This article discusses prospects for China's economic development over the next decade based on the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Chinese economy. The article argues that the long-term trend of China's economy will remain positive and the major driving forces of the fast-growing Chinese economy still exist. However, particular focus must be placed on the changes in the domestic and international environment in the next decade. Further reforms should be promoted in the field of economic elements, public expenditure, energy, and the environment in order to improve the sustainability and balance of economic development

Production forecast of China׳s rare earths based on the Generalized Weng model and policy recommendations

AbstractChina is currently the largest producer of rare earths in the world, mining at least 90% of world total production. Because of China׳s dominant position in global rare earths production and the constant development of rare earths terminal industries, the study of China׳s rare earth supply trends has gradually been a hot topic of world interest. However, the literature shows that previous research has mainly focused on the estimation of rare earth supply and its influence based on experiential judge of current and premonitory new rare earth production capacity, rather than on quantitative modeling. The results are usually estimations of the productions of near future rather than longer term. Forecasts by mine types are particularly rare. Considering the different applications and demands of different rare earth elements, the Generalized Weng model, a widely used quantitative model in exhaustible resource forecast, is adopted in this study to predict the production of the three major rare earths in China (namely, mixed rare earth, bastnasite and ion-absorbed rare earth) before 2050. The results show that production of mixed rare earth will peak in 2014 at 62,757t, followed thereafter by an annual decline of 2%; production of bastnasite will peak in 2018 at 32,312t, preceded by an annual increase of 1.67% and followed by an annual decrease of 4%; production of ion-absorbed rare earth will peak in 2024 at 45,793t, preceded by an annual increase of 1.72% and followed by an annual decrease of 4%. Based on these findings, Chinese government should enforce environmental and resource exhaustible taxes soon and different domestic regulations for different rare earths according to their different production potential. Countries without resource endowments should make efforts to develop rare earth recycling technologies and seek substitutes for rare earth resources, in addition to keeping good international trading relationships. Countries with some kind of rare earths should start or restart their rare earth mines to gradually reduce dependence on China׳s supply

Resource Distribution, Interprovincial Trade, and Embodied Energy: A Case Study of China

Based on data from 2007 input-output tables for each province, we estimated the energy embodied in China's interprovincial trade through input-output analysis. The results show that a sizable transfer of energy is embodied in China's interprovincial trade, and the transfer goes from the central and western provinces, which have higher energy endowments, to the eastern and coastal provinces, which have more developed economies. The provinces with the greatest net inflow of embodied energy via interprovincial trade were Zhejiang, Guangdong, Beijing, Shandong, and Jiangsu. The provinces with the greatest net outflow of embodied energy were Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Xinjiang, and Heilongjiang. To effectively reduce China's energy consumption, it is vital to adhere not only to the producer responsibility principle but also to the consumer responsibility principle. In particular, the economically developed provinces with substantial net inflows of embodied energy in interprovincial trade should provide support to the provinces from which the embodied energy outflows come

Resource Distribution, Interprovincial Trade, and Embodied Energy: A Case Study of China

Based on data from 2007 input-output tables for each province, we estimated the energy embodied in China’s interprovincial trade through input-output analysis. The results show that a sizable transfer of energy is embodied in China’s interprovincial trade, and the transfer goes from the central and western provinces, which have higher energy endowments, to the eastern and coastal provinces, which have more developed economies. The provinces with the greatest net inflow of embodied energy via interprovincial trade were Zhejiang, Guangdong, Beijing, Shandong, and Jiangsu. The provinces with the greatest net outflow of embodied energy were Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Xinjiang, and Heilongjiang. To effectively reduce China’s energy consumption, it is vital to adhere not only to the producer responsibility principle but also to the consumer responsibility principle. In particular, the economically developed provinces with substantial net inflows of embodied energy in interprovincial trade should provide support to the provinces from which the embodied energy outflows come

Decoupling of economic growth and emissions in China’s cities: A case study of the Central Plains urban agglomeration

Recently, the economy has grown rapidly in China’s Central Plains urban agglomeration, with high energy consumption and a huge pressure on reducing CO2 emissions. Thus, low-carbon development is an important measure to solve economic, energy and environmental problems. To analyse low-emission development, this paper clarifies the evolutionary characteristics of CO2 emissions and the decoupling relationship between GDP and CO2 emissions based on the latest available data from 2000 to 2015. The results indicate that CO2 emissions of Pingdingshan and Changzhi are higher in the same year. The ratios from coal consumption accounting for the total CO2 emissions are clearly bigger than from other energy types and industrial processes. Changzhi, Luoyang and Pingdingshan have reached their peaks. Five cities have experienced strong decoupling after 2010, 13 cities present weak decoupling, 4 cities present growth connection, and 7 cities show growth negative decoupling. It can be concluded that a relatively smaller proportion of industry and strict policy implementations of coal reduction are the main factors in inhibiting the decoupling. So the proportion of coal purification should be increased firstly. Then, the energy consumption structure should be changed from the traditional coal consumption structure to coal, oil and gas. Lastly, economic means can be used to control CO2 emissions

Evaluation of the contributions of four components of gross domestic product in various regions in China.

Four major components influence the growth of the gross domestic product in Chinese provinces: consumption, investment, transnational exports, and inter-provincial exports. By splitting a competitive input-output table into a non-competitive input-output table, this study used an input-output model to measure the contributions of the four components of gross domestic product in various regions in China. We found that international exports drove the growth of the gross domestic product more strongly in the eastern region than in other regions. Investment and inter-provincial exports were the major impetus for gross domestic product growth in the central and western regions. We also found that consumption played a minimal role in driving the growth of the gross domestic product in all regions in China. According to these findings, although various regions can share much in terms of policies to transform the impetus for economic growth, there should be different foci for different regions. Their shared policy is to increase the role of final consumption in stimulating economic growth. Region-specific policies mandate that the eastern region should strengthen the driving force provided by international exports and that the central and western regions should strengthen indigenous growth capabilities by improving scientific innovation, industrial support, and institutional innovation

The Empirical Relationship between Mining Industry Development and Environmental Pollution in China

This study uses a vector autoregression (VAR) model to analyze changes in pollutants among different mining industries and related policy in China from 2001 to 2014. The results show that: (1) because the pertinence of standards for mining waste water and waste gas emissions are not strong and because the maximum permissible discharge pollutant concentrations in these standards are too high, ammonia nitrogen and industrial sulfur dioxide discharges increased in most mining industries; (2) chemical oxygen demand was taken as an indicator of sewage treatment in environmental protection plans; hence, the chemical oxygen demand discharge decreased in all mining industries; (3) tax reduction policies, which are only implemented in coal mining and washing and extraction of petroleum and natural gas, decreased the industrial solid waste discharge in these two mining industries

Contributions of the four GDP components in various regions in China (2007).

<p>For provinces, four factors influence economic growth from a demand perspective: consumption, investment, international exports, and inter-provincial exports. The purple represents the influence of inter-provincial exports; the green represents the influence of international exports, the red represents the influence of investment, the blue represents the influence of consumption in the Fig 1</p

Prediction on the Peak of the CO2 Emissions in China Using the STIRPAT Model

Climate change has threatened our economic, environmental, and social sustainability seriously. The world has taken active measures in dealing with climate change to mitigate carbon emissions. Predicting the carbon emissions peak has become a global focus, as well as a leading target for China’s low carbon development. China has promised its carbon emissions will have peaked by around 2030, with the intention of peaking earlier. Scholars generally have studied the influencing factors of carbon emissions. However, research on carbon emissions peaks is not extensive. Therefore, by setting a low scenario, a middle scenario, and a high scenario, this paper predicts China’s carbon emissions peak from 2015 to 2035 based on the data from 1998 to 2014 using the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model. The results show that in the low, middle, and high scenarios China will reach its carbon emissions peak in 2024, 2027, and 2030, respectively. Thus, this paper puts forward the large-scale application of technology innovation to improve energy efficiency and optimize energy structure and supply and demand. China should use industrial policy and human capital investment to stimulate the rapid development of low carbon industries and modern agriculture and service industries to help China to reach its carbon emissions peak by around 2030 or earlier