Model for predicting short-term mortality of severe sepsis

International audienceABSTRACT: INTRODUCTION: To establish a prognostic model for predicting 14-day mortality in ICU patients with severe sepsis overall and according to place of infection acquisition and to sepsis episode number. METHODS: In this prospective multicentre observational study on a multicentre database (OUTCOMEREA) including data from 12 ICUs, 2268 patients with 2737 episodes of severe sepsis were randomly divided into a training cohort (n=1458) and a validation cohort (n=810). Up to four consecutive severe sepsis episodes per patient occurring within the first 28 ICU days were included. We developed a prognostic model for predicting death within 14 days after each episode, based on patient data available at sepsis onset. RESULTS: Independent predictors of death were logistic organ dysfunction (OR, 1.22 per point, p<10-4), septic shock (OR, 1.40; p=0.01), rank of severe sepsis episode (1 reference, 2: OR, 1.26; p=0.10 [greater than or equal to]3: OR, 2.64 ;10-3), multiple sources of infection (OR; 1.45, p=0.03), simplified acute physiology score II (OR, 1.02 per point; p<10-4), McCabe score ([greater than or equal to]2)(OR, 1.96; p<10-4), and number of chronic co-morbidities (1: OR, 1.75; p=10-3, [greater than or equal to]2: OR, 2.24, p= 10-3). Validity of the model was good in whole cohorts (AUC-ROC, 0.76; 95%CI [0.74; 0.79] and HL Chi-square: 15.3 (p=0.06) for all episodes pooled). CONCLUSIONS: In ICU patients, a prognostic model based on a few easily obtained variables is effective in predicting death within 14 days after the first to fourth episode of severe sepsis complicating community-, hospital-, or ICU-acquired infection

Multiple-center evaluation of mortality associated with acute kidney injury in critically ill patients: a competing risks analysis

International audienceINTRODUCTION: In this study, we aimed to assess the association between acute kidney injury (AKI) and mortality in critically ill patients using an original competing risks approach. METHODS: Unselected patients admitted between 1997 and 2009 to 13 French medical or surgical intensive care units were included in this observational cohort study. AKI was defined according to the RIFLE criteria. The following data were recorded: baseline characteristics, daily serum creatinine level, daily Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, vital status at hospital discharge and length of hospital stay. Patients were classified according to the maximum RIFLE class reached during their ICU stay. The association of AKI with hospital mortality with "discharge alive" considered as a competing event was assessed according to the Fine and Gray model. RESULTS: Of the 8,639 study patients, 32.9% had AKI, of whom 19.1% received renal replacement therapy. Patients with AKI had higher crude mortality rates and longer lengths of hospital stay than patients without AKI. In the Fine and Gray model, independent risk factors for hospital mortality were the RIFLE classes Risk (sub-hazard ratio (SHR) 1.58 and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.32 to 1.88; P < 0.0001), Injury (SHR 3.99 and 95% CI 3.43 to 4.65; P < 0.0001) and Failure (SHR 4.12 and 95% CI 3.55 to 4.79; P < 0.0001); nonrenal SOFA score (SHR 1.19 per point and 95% CI 1.18 to 1.21; P < 0.0001); McCabe class 3 (SHR 2.71 and 95% CI 2.34 to 3.15; P < 0.0001); and respiratory failure (SHR 3.08 and 95% CI 1.36 to 7.01; P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: By using a competing risks approach, we confirm in this study that AKI affecting critically ill patients is associated with increased in-hospital mortality

Visual Outcomes Following Plasma Exchange for Optic Neuritis: An International Multicenter Retrospective Analysis of 395 Optic Neuritis Attacks.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the effectiveness of plasma exchange (PLEX) for optic neuritis (ON). METHODS: We conducted an international multicenter retrospective study evaluating the outcomes of ON following PLEX. Outcomes were compared to raw data from the Optic Neuritis Treatment Trial (ONTT) using a matched subset. RESULTS: A total of 395 ON attack treated with PLEX from 317 patients were evaluated. The median age was 37 years (range 9-75), and 71% were female. Causes of ON included multiple sclerosis (108), myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein antibody-associated disease (MOGAD) (92), aquaporin-4-IgG-positive neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (AQP4+NMOSD) (75), seronegative-NMOSD (34), idiopathic (83), and other (3). Median time from onset of vision loss to PLEX was 2.6 weeks (interquartile range [IQR], 1.4-4.0). Median visual acuity (VA) at the time of PLEX was count fingers (IQR, 20/200-hand motion), and median final VA was 20/25 (IQR, 20/20-20/60) with no differences among etiologies except MOGAD-ON, which had better outcomes. In 81 (20.5%) ON attacks, the final VA was 20/200 or worse. Patients with poor outcomes were older (P&nbsp;=&nbsp;.002), had worse VA at the time of PLEX (P &lt; .001), and longer delay to PLEX (P &lt; .001). In comparison with the ONTT subset with severe corticosteroid-unresponsive ON, a final VA of worse than 20/40 occurred in 6 of 50 (12%) PLEX-treated ON vs 7 of 19 (37%) from the ONTT treated with intravenous methylprednisolone without PLEX (P&nbsp;=&nbsp;.04). CONCLUSION: Most ON attacks improved with PLEX, and outcomes were better than attacks with similar severity in the ONTT. The presence of severe vision loss at nadir, older age, and longer delay to PLEX predicted a worse outcome whereas MOGAD-ON had a more favorable prognosis. NOTE: Publication of this article is sponsored by the American Ophthalmological Society

Impact of opioid-free analgesia on pain severity and patient satisfaction after discharge from surgery: multispecialty, prospective cohort study in 25 countries

Background: Balancing opioid stewardship and the need for adequate analgesia following discharge after surgery is challenging. This study aimed to compare the outcomes for patients discharged with opioid versus opioid-free analgesia after common surgical procedures.Methods: This international, multicentre, prospective cohort study collected data from patients undergoing common acute and elective general surgical, urological, gynaecological, and orthopaedic procedures. The primary outcomes were patient-reported time in severe pain measured on a numerical analogue scale from 0 to 100% and patient-reported satisfaction with pain relief during the first week following discharge. Data were collected by in-hospital chart review and patient telephone interview 1 week after discharge.Results: The study recruited 4273 patients from 144 centres in 25 countries; 1311 patients (30.7%) were prescribed opioid analgesia at discharge. Patients reported being in severe pain for 10 (i.q.r. 1-30)% of the first week after discharge and rated satisfaction with analgesia as 90 (i.q.r. 80-100) of 100. After adjustment for confounders, opioid analgesia on discharge was independently associated with increased pain severity (risk ratio 1.52, 95% c.i. 1.31 to 1.76; P &lt; 0.001) and re-presentation to healthcare providers owing to side-effects of medication (OR 2.38, 95% c.i. 1.36 to 4.17; P = 0.004), but not with satisfaction with analgesia (beta coefficient 0.92, 95% c.i. -1.52 to 3.36; P = 0.468) compared with opioid-free analgesia. Although opioid prescribing varied greatly between high-income and low- and middle-income countries, patient-reported outcomes did not.Conclusion: Opioid analgesia prescription on surgical discharge is associated with a higher risk of re-presentation owing to side-effects of medication and increased patient-reported pain, but not with changes in patient-reported satisfaction. Opioid-free discharge analgesia should be adopted routinely

Global, regional, and national burden of headache disorders, 1990–2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023 estimates health loss from migraine, tension-type headache, and medication-overuse headache. This study presents updated results on headache-attributed burden from 1990 to 2023, along with clinical and public health implications. Methods: Data on the prevalence, incidence, or remission of migraine, tension-type headache, and medication-overuse headache were extracted from published population-based studies. We used hierarchical Bayesian meta-regression modelling to estimate global, regional, and country-level prevalence of headache disorders. For the first time in GBD 2023, age-specific and sex-specific estimates of time in symptomatic state were applied by meta-analysing individual participant data from 41 653 individuals from the general populations of 18 countries from all parts of the world. Disability weights were applied to calculate years lived with disability (YLDs). Since medication-overuse headache is a sequela of a mistreated primary headache (due to medication overuse), its burden was reattributed to migraine or tension-type headache, informed by a meta-analysis of three longitudinal studies. Findings: In 2023, 2·9 billion individuals (95% uncertainty interval 2·6–3·1) were affected by headache disorders, with a global age-standardised prevalence of 34·6% (31·6–37·5) and a YLD rate of 541·9 (373·4–739·9) per 100 000 population, with 487·5 (323·0–678·8) per 100 000 population attributed to migraine. The prevalence rates of these headache disorders have remained stable over the past three decades. YLD rates due to headache disorders were more than twice as high in females (739·9 [511·2–1011·5] per 100 000) as in males (346·1 [240·4–481·8] per 100 000). Medication-overuse headache contributed 58·9% of the YLD estimates for tension-type headache in males and 56·1% in females, as well as 22·6% of the YLD estimates for migraines in males and 14·1% in females. Interpretation: Headache disorders, in particular migraine, continue to be a major global health challenge, emphasising the need for effective management and prevention strategies. Much headache-attributed burden could be averted or eliminated by avoiding overuse of medication (including over-the-counter medication), underscoring the importance of public education