Tigers on trails: occupancy modeling for cluster sampling

Occupancy modeling focuses on inference about the distribution of organisms over space, using temporal or spatial replication to allow inference about the detection process. Inference based on spatial replication strictly requires that replicates be selected randomly and with replacement, but the importance of these design requirements is not well understood. This paper focuses on an increasingly popular sampling design based on spatial replicates that are not selected randomly and that are expected to exhibit Markovian dependence. We develop two new occupancy models for data collected under this sort of design, one based on an underlying Markov model for spatial dependence and the other based on a trap response model with Markovian detections. We then simulated data under the model for Markovian spatial dependence and fit the data to standard occupancy models and to the two new models. Bias of occupancy estimates was substantial for the standard models, smaller for the new trap response model, and negligible for the new spatial process model. We also fit these models to data from a large-scale tiger occupancy survey recently conducted in Karnataka State, southwestern India. In addition to providing evidence of a positive relationship between tiger occupancy and habitat, model selection statistics and estimates strongly supported the use of the model with Markovian spatial dependence. This new model provides another tool for the decomposition of the detection process, which is sometimes needed for proper estimation and which may also permit interesting biological inferences. In addition to designs employing spatial replication, we note the likely existence of temporal Markovian dependence in many designs using temporal replication. The models developed here will be useful either directly, or with minor extensions, for these designs as well. We believe that these new models represent important additions to the suite of modeling tools now available for occupancy estimation in conservation monitoring. More generally, this work represents a contribution to the topic of cluster sampling for situations in which there is a need for specific modeling (e.g., reflecting dependence) for the distribution of the variable(s) of interest among subunits

Oral rehydration therapies in Senegal, Mali, and Sierra Leone: A spatial analysis of changes over time and implications for policy

Background: Oral rehydration solution (ORS) is a simple intervention that can prevent childhood deaths from severe diarrhea and dehydration. In a previous study, we mapped the use of ORS treatment subnationally and found that ORS coverage increased over time, while the use of home-made alternatives or recommended home fluids (RHF) decreased, in many countries. These patterns were particularly striking within Senegal, Mali, and Sierra Leone. It was unclear, however, whether ORS replaced RHF in these locations or if children were left untreated, and if these patterns were associated with health policy changes.Methods: We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from household surveys to map the percentage of children with diarrhea that received (1) any ORS, (2) only RHF, or (3) no oral rehydration treatment between 2000 and 2018. This approach allowed examination of whether RHF was replaced with ORS before and after interventions, policies, and external events that may have impacted healthcare access.Results: We found that RHF was replaced with ORS in most Sierra Leone districts, except those most impacted by the Ebola outbreak. In addition, RHF was replaced in northern but not in southern Mali, and RHF was not replaced anywhere in Senegal. In Senegal, there was no statistical evidence that a national policy promoting ORS use was associated with increases in coverage. In Sierra Leone, ORS coverage increased following a national policy change that abolished health costs for children.Conclusions: Children in parts of Mali and Senegal have been left behind during ORS scale-up. Improved messaging on effective diarrhea treatment and/or increased ORS access such as through reducing treatment costs may be needed to prevent child deaths in these areas

Incidence and risk factors for hyperglycemia in pregnancy among nulliparous women : a Brazilian multicenter cohort study

Objective To assess the incidence and risk factors for hyperglycemia in pregnancy in a cohort of Brazilian nulliparous pregnant women. Materials and methods This is a secondary analysis of a multicenter cohort study that enrolled 1,008 nulliparous pregnant women at 19–21 weeks. Exclusion criteria included chronic exposure to corticosteroids and previous diabetes. Bivariate and multivariate analyses by Poisson regression were used to identify associated factors. Results The incidence of hyperglycemia in pregnancy was 14.9% (150/1,008), and 94.7% of these cases were gestational diabetes mellitus (142/150). Significant associated factors included a family history of diabetes mellitus, maternal overweight or obesity at enrollment, and previous maternal conditions (polycystic ovarian syndrome, thyroid dysfunctions and hypertensive disorders). A BMI ≥ 26.3Kg/m2 (RRadj 1.87 [1.66–2.10]) and a family history of diabetes mellitus (RRadj 1.71 [1.37–2.15]) at enrollment were independent risk factors for HIP. Conclusions A family history of diabetes mellitus and overweight or obesity (until 19–21 weeks of gestation) may be used as selective markers for HIP in Brazilian nulliparous women. Given the scarcity of results in nulliparous women, our findings may contribute to determine the optimal diagnostic approach in populations of similar socioeconomic characteristics

Meningococcal carriage within households in the African meningitis belt: A longitudinal pilot study.

OBJECTIVES: Carriers of Neisseria meningitidis are a key source of transmission. In the African meningitis belt, where risk of meningococcal disease is highest, a greater understanding of meningococcal carriage dynamics is needed. METHODS: We randomly selected an age-stratified sample of 400 residents from 116 households in Bamako, Mali, and collected pharyngeal swabs in May 2010. A month later, we enrolled all 202 residents of 20 of these households (6 with known carriers) and collected swabs monthly for 6 months prior to MenAfriVac vaccine introduction and returned 10 months later to collect swabs monthly for 3 months. We used standard bacteriological methods to identify N. meningitidis carriers and fit hidden Markov models to assess acquisition and clearance overall and by sex and age. RESULTS: During the cross-sectional study 5.0% of individuals (20/400) were carriers. During the longitudinal study, 73 carriage events were identified from 1422 swabs analyzed, and 16.3% of individuals (33/202) were identified as carriers at least once. The majority of isolates were non-groupable; no serogroup A carriers were identified. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that the duration of carriage with any N. meningitidis averages 2.9 months and that males and children acquire and lose carriage more frequently in an urban setting in Mali. Our study informed the design of a larger study implemented in seven countries of the African meningitis belt

In ricordo di Paolo Sylos Labini

Background: Diarrheal disease is the second leading cause of disease in children less than 5 y of age. Poor water, sanitation, and hygiene conditions are the primary routes of exposure and infection. Sanitation and hygiene interventions are estimated to generate a 36% and 48% reduction in diarrheal risk in young children, respectively. Little is known about whether the number of households sharing a sanitation facility affects a child's risk of diarrhea. The objective of this study was to describe sanitation and hygiene access across the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) sites in Africa and South Asia and to assess sanitation and hygiene exposures, including shared sanitation access, as risk factors for moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) in children less than 5 y of age. Methods/Findings: The GEMS matched case-control study was conducted between December 1, 2007, and March 3, 2011, at seven sites in Basse, The Gambia; Nyanza Province, Kenya; Bamako, Mali; Manhiça, Mozambique; Mirzapur, Bangladesh; Kolkata, India; and Karachi, Pakistan. Data was collected for 8,592 case children aged 93%) had access to a sanitation facility, while 70% of households in rural Kenya had access to a facility. Practicing open defecation was a risk factor for MSD in children <5 y old in Kenya. Sharing sanitation facilities with 1–2 or ≥3 other households was a statistically significant risk factor for MSD in Kenya, Mali, Mozambique, and Pakistan. Among those with a designated handwashing area near the home, soap or ash were more frequently observed at control households and were significantly protective against MSD in Mozambique and India. Conclusions: This study suggests that sharing a sanitation facility with just one to two other households can increase the risk of MSD in young children, compared to using a private facility. Interventions aimed at increasing access to private household sanitation facilities may reduce the burden of MSD in children. These findings support the current World Health Organization/ United Nations Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF) system that categorizes shared sanitation as unimproved

Sanitation and Hygiene-Specific Risk Factors for Moderate-to-Severe Diarrhea in Young Children in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study, 2007-2011: Case-Control Study.

Background: Diarrheal disease is the second leading cause of disease in children less than 5 y of age. Poor water, sanitation, and hygiene conditions are the primary routes of exposure and infection. Sanitation and hygiene interventions are estimated to generate a 36% and 48% reduction in diarrheal risk in young children, respectively. Little is known about whether the number of households sharing a sanitation facility affects a child's risk of diarrhea. The objective of this study was to describe sanitation and hygiene access across the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) sites in Africa and South Asia and to assess sanitation and hygiene exposures, including shared sanitation access, as risk factors for moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) in children less than 5 y of age. Methods/Findings: The GEMS matched case-control study was conducted between December 1, 2007, and March 3, 2011, at seven sites in Basse, The Gambia; Nyanza Province, Kenya; Bamako, Mali; Manhiça, Mozambique; Mirzapur, Bangladesh; Kolkata, India; and Karachi, Pakistan. Data was collected for 8,592 case children aged 93%) had access to a sanitation facility, while 70% of households in rural Kenya had access to a facility. Practicing open defecation was a risk factor for MSD in children <5 y old in Kenya. Sharing sanitation facilities with 1–2 or ≥3 other households was a statistically significant risk factor for MSD in Kenya, Mali, Mozambique, and Pakistan. Among those with a designated handwashing area near the home, soap or ash were more frequently observed at control households and were significantly protective against MSD in Mozambique and India. Conclusions: This study suggests that sharing a sanitation facility with just one to two other households can increase the risk of MSD in young children, compared to using a private facility. Interventions aimed at increasing access to private household sanitation facilities may reduce the burden of MSD in children. These findings support the current World Health Organization/ United Nations Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF) system that categorizes shared sanitation as unimproved

Planning, Implementing, and Running a Multicentre Preterm Birth Study with Biobank Resources in Brazil: The Preterm SAMBA Study

Background. Our aim was to describe the steps in planning, implementing, and running a multicentre cohort study of maternal and perinatal health using a high-quality biobank comprised of maternal serum, plasma, and hair samples collected from five sites in Brazil. The Preterm SAMBA study, conducted by the Brazilian Network for Studies on Reproductive and Perinatal Health, was an innovative approach used to identify women at higher risk for preterm birth. It is also of great importance in the study of other maternal and perinatal complications in the context of Brazil, which is a middle-income country. Methods. We described phases of planning, implementing, and running the Preterm SAMBA study, a multicentre Brazilian cohort study of low-risk nulliparous pregnant women, to validate a set of metabolite biomarkers for preterm birth identified in an external cohort. Procedures and strategies used to plan, implement, and maintain this multicentre preterm birth study are described in detail. Barriers and experience cited in the current narrative are not usually discussed in the scientific literature or published study protocols. Results. Several barriers and strategies were identified in different phases of the Preterm SAMBA study at different levels of the study framework (steering committee; coordinating and local centres). Strategies implemented and resources used in the study are a legacy of the Brazilian Network, aimed at training collaborators in such complex settings. Conclusion. The Brazilian Network for Studies on Reproductive and Perinatal Health has gained some experience in conducting a multicentre cohort study using a resourceful biobank which may be helpful to other research groups and maternal/perinatal health networks that plan on employing a similar approach to a similar background.201