Field assessment of dog as sentinel animal for plague in endemic foci of Madagascar

Funding Information: Sincere thanks to Mrs. L Angeltine Ralafiarisoa for technical assistance and the staff of the Plague Unit for their assistance during sample collections. This work was funded by an internal research grant (Ref: PA 14.25) from the Institut Pasteur de Madagascar. This research was also funded in part by the Wellcome Trust [095171/Z/10/Z]. For the purpose of Open Access, the authors have applied a CC BY public copyright license to any Author Accepted Manuscript version arising from this submission.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Transmission Shifts Underlie Variability in Population Responses to Yersinia pestis Infection

Host populations for the plague bacterium, Yersinia pestis, are highly variable in their response to plague ranging from near deterministic extinction (i.e., epizootic dynamics) to a low probability of extinction despite persistent infection (i.e., enzootic dynamics). Much of the work to understand this variability has focused on specific host characteristics, such as population size and resistance, and their role in determining plague dynamics. Here, however, we advance the idea that the relative importance of alternative transmission routes may vary causing shifts from epizootic to enzootic dynamics. We present a model that incorporates host and flea ecology with multiple transmission hypotheses to study how transmission shifts determine population responses to plague. Our results suggest enzootic persistence relies on infection of an off-host flea reservoir and epizootics rely on transiently maintained flea infection loads through repeated infectious feeds by fleas. In either case, early-phase transmission by fleas (i.e., transmission immediately following an infected blood meal) has been observed in laboratory studies, and we show that it is capable of driving plague dynamics at the population level. Sensitivity analysis of model parameters revealed that host characteristics (e.g., population size and resistance) vary in importance depending on transmission dynamics, suggesting that host ecology may scale differently through different transmission routes enabling prediction of population responses in a more robust way than using either host characteristics or transmission shifts alone

Sleeping sickness and its relationship with development and biodiversity conservation in the Luangwa valley, Zambia

The Luangwa Valley has a long historical association with Human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) and is a recognised geographical focus of this disease. It is also internationally acclaimed for its high biodiversity and contains many valuable habitats. Local inhabitants of the valley have developed sustainable land use systems in co-existence with wildlife over centuries, based on non-livestock keeping practices largely due to the threat from African Animal Trypanosomiasis. Historical epidemics of human sleeping sickness have influenced how and where communities have settled and have had a profound impact on development in the Valley. Historical attempts to control trypanosomiasis have also had a negative impact on conservation of biodiversity. Centralised control over wildlife utilisation has marginalised local communities from managing the wildlife resource. To some extent this has been reversed by the implementation of community based natural resource management programmes in the latter half of the 20th century and the Luangwa Valley provides some of the earliest examples of such programmes. More recently, there has been significant uncontrolled migration of people into the mid-Luangwa Valley driven by pressure on resources in the eastern plateau region, encouragement from local chiefs and economic development in the tourist centre of Mfuwe. This has brought changing land-use patterns, most notably agricultural development through livestock keeping and cotton production. These changes threaten to alter the endemically stable patterns of HAT transmission and could have significant impacts on ecosystem health and ecosystem services. In this paper we review the history of HAT in the context of conservation and development and consider the impacts current changes may have on this complex social-ecological system. We conclude that improved understanding is required to identify specific circumstances where win-win trade-offs can be achieved between the conservation of biodiversity and the reduction of disease in the human population.Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation (ESPA

Patients' and urologists' preferences for prostate cancer treatment: A discrete choice experiment

__Abstract__ Background: Patients' preferences are important for shared decision making. Therefore, we investigated patients' and urologists' preferences for treatment alternatives for early prostate cancer (PC). Methods: A discrete choice experiment was conducted among 150 patients who were waiting for their biopsy results, and 150 urologists. Regression analysis was used to determine patients' and urologists' stated preferences using scenarios based on PC treatment modality (radiotherapy, surgery, and active surveillance (AS)), and risks of urinary incontinence and erectile dysfunction.Results:The response rate was 110 out of 150 (73%) for patients and 50 out of 150 (33%) for urologists. Risk of urinary incontinence was an important determinant of both patients' and urologists' stated preferences for PC treatment (P<0.05). Treatment modality also influenced patients' stated preferences (P<0.05), whereas the risk of erectile dysfunction due to radiotherapy was mainly important to urologists (P<0.05). Both patients and urologists preferred AS to radical treatment, with the exception of patients with anxious/depressed feelings who preferred radical treatment to AS. Conclusion: Although patients and urologists generally may prefer similar treatments for PC, they showed different trade-offs between various specific treatment aspects. This implies that urologists need to be aware of potential differences compared with the patient's perspective on treatment decisions in shared decision making on PC treatment

Selective Serotonin Reuptake Inhibitors and Gastrointestinal Bleeding: A Case-Control Study

BACKGROUND: Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) have been associated with upper gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding. Given their worldwide use, even small risks account for a large number of cases. This study has been conducted with carefully collected information to further investigate the relationship between SSRIs and upper GI bleeding. METHODS: We conducted a case-control study in hospitals in Spain and in Italy. Cases were patients aged ≥18 years with a primary diagnosis of acute upper GI bleeding diagnosed by endoscopy; three controls were matched by sex, age, date of admission (within 3 months) and hospital among patients who were admitted for elective surgery for non-painful disorders. Exposures to SSRIs, other antidepressants and other drugs were defined as any use of these drugs in the 7 days before the day on which upper gastrointestinal bleeding started (index day). RESULTS: 581 cases of upper GI bleeding and 1358 controls were considered eligible for the study; no differences in age or sex distribution were observed between cases and controls after matching. Overall, 4.0% of the cases and 3.3% of controls used an SSRI antidepressant in the week before the index day. No significant risk of upper GI bleeding was encountered for SSRI antidepressants (adjusted odds ratio, 1.06, 95% CI, 0.57-1.96) or for whichever other grouping of antidepressants. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this case-control study showed no significant increase in upper GI bleeding with SSRIs and provide good evidence that the magnitude of any increase in risk is not greater than 2

Decelerating Spread of West Nile Virus by Percolation in a Heterogeneous Urban Landscape

Vector-borne diseases are emerging and re-emerging in urban environments throughout the world, presenting an increasing challenge to human health and a major obstacle to development. Currently, more than half of the global population is concentrated in urban environments, which are highly heterogeneous in the extent, degree, and distribution of environmental modifications. Because the prevalence of vector-borne pathogens is so closely coupled to the ecologies of vector and host species, this heterogeneity has the potential to significantly alter the dynamical systems through which pathogens propagate, and also thereby affect the epidemiological patterns of disease at multiple spatial scales. One such pattern is the speed of spread. Whereas standard models hold that pathogens spread as waves with constant or increasing speed, we hypothesized that heterogeneity in urban environments would cause decelerating travelling waves in incipient epidemics. To test this hypothesis, we analysed data on the spread of West Nile virus (WNV) in New York City (NYC), the 1999 epicentre of the North American pandemic, during annual epizootics from 2000–2008. These data show evidence of deceleration in all years studied, consistent with our hypothesis. To further explain these patterns, we developed a spatial model for vector-borne disease transmission in a heterogeneous environment. An emergent property of this model is that deceleration occurs only in the vicinity of a critical point. Geostatistical analysis suggests that NYC may be on the edge of this criticality. Together, these analyses provide the first evidence for the endogenous generation of decelerating travelling waves in an emerging infectious disease. Since the reported deceleration results from the heterogeneity of the environment through which the pathogen percolates, our findings suggest that targeting control at key sites could efficiently prevent pathogen spread to remote susceptible areas or even halt epidemics

Characterisation of the maternal response to chronic phase shifts during gestation in the rat: implications for fetal metabolic programming

Disrupting maternal circadian rhythms through exposure to chronic phase shifts of the photoperiod has lifelong consequences for the metabolic homeostasis of the fetus, such that offspring develop increased adiposity, hyperinsulinaemia and poor glucose and insulin tolerance. In an attempt to determine the mechanisms by which these poor metabolic outcomes arise, we investigated the impact of chronic phase shifts (CPS) on maternal and fetal hormonal, metabolic and circadian rhythms. We assessed weight gain and food consumption of dams exposed to either CPS or control lighting conditions throughout gestation. At day 20, dams were assessed for plasma hormone and metabolite concentrations and glucose and insulin tolerance. Additionally, the expression of a range of circadian and metabolic genes was assessed in maternal, placental and fetal tissue. Control and CPS dams consumed the same amount of food, yet CPS dams gained 70% less weight during the first week of gestation. At day 20, CPS dams had reduced retroperitoneal fat pad weight (−15%), and time-of-day dependent decreases in liver weight, whereas fetal and placental weight was not affected. Melatonin secretion was not altered, yet the timing of corticosterone, leptin, glucose, insulin, free fatty acids, triglycerides and cholesterol concentrations were profoundly disrupted. The expression of gluconeogenic and circadian clock genes in maternal and fetal liver became either arrhythmic or were in antiphase to the controls. These results demonstrate that disruptions of the photoperiod can severely disrupt normal circadian profiles of plasma hormones and metabolites, as well as gene expression in maternal and fetal tissues. Disruptions in the timing of food consumption and the downstream metabolic processes required to utilise that food, may lead to reduced efficiency of growth such that maternal weight gain is reduced during early embryonic development. It is these perturbations that may contribute to the programming of poor metabolic homeostasis in the offspring.Tamara J. Varcoe, Michael J. Boden, Athena Voultsios, Mark D. Salkeld, Leewen Rattanatray, David J. Kennawa

An economic model of long-term use of celecoxib in patients with osteoarthritis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Previous evaluations of the cost-effectiveness of the cyclooxygenase-2 selective inhibitor celecoxib (Celebrex, Pfizer Inc, USA) have produced conflicting results. The recent controversy over the cardiovascular (CV) risks of rofecoxib and other coxibs has renewed interest in the economic profile of celecoxib, the only coxib now available in the United States. The objective of our study was to evaluate the long-term cost-effectiveness of celecoxib compared with nonselective nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (nsNSAIDs) in a population of 60-year-old osteoarthritis (OA) patients with average risks of upper gastrointestinal (UGI) complications who require chronic daily NSAID therapy.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We used decision analysis based on data from the literature to evaluate cost-effectiveness from a modified societal perspective over patients' lifetimes, with outcomes expressed as incremental costs per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Sensitivity tests were performed to evaluate the impacts of advancing age, CV thromboembolic event risk, different analytic horizons and alternate treatment strategies after UGI adverse events.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Our main findings were: 1) the base model incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for celecoxib versus nsNSAIDs was $31,097 per QALY; 2) the ICER per QALY was$19,309 for a model in which UGI ulcer and ulcer complication event risks increased with advancing age; 3) the ICER per QALY was $17,120 in sensitivity analyses combining serious CV thromboembolic event (myocardial infarction, stroke, CV death) risks with base model assumptions.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our model suggests that chronic celecoxib is cost-effective versus nsNSAIDs in a population of 60-year-old OA patients with average risks of UGI events.</p

Human plague: An old scourge that needs new answers

Yersinia pestis, the bacterial causative agent of plague, remains an important threat to human health. Plague is a rodent-borne disease that has historically shown an outstanding ability to colonize and persist across different species, habitats, and environments while provoking sporadic cases, outbreaks, and deadly global epidemics among humans. Between September and November 2017, an outbreak of urban pneumonic plague was declared in Madagascar, which refocused the attention of the scientific community on this ancient human scourge. Given recent trends and plague’s resilience to control in the wild, its high fatality rate in humans without early treatment, and its capacity to disrupt social and healthcare systems, human plague should be considered as a neglected threat. A workshop was held in Paris in July 2018 to review current knowledge about plague and to identify the scientific research priorities to eradicate plague as a human threat. It was concluded that an urgent commitment is needed to develop and fund a strong research agenda aiming to fill the current knowledge gaps structured around 4 main axes: (i) an improved understanding of the ecological interactions among the reservoir, vector, pathogen, and environment; (ii) human and societal responses; (iii) improved diagnostic tools and case management; and (iv) vaccine development. These axes should be cross-cutting, translational, and focused on delivering context-specific strategies. Results of this research should feed a global control and prevention strategy within a “One Health” approach