TimeSets for uncertainty visualisation

TimeSets consist of a timeline showing sequence of events displayed across a visualisation, while makings sense of sets relation among events in the timeline [NXWW15]. This study looked into extending TimeSets to accommodate Visualisation of trust and uncertainty as parts of its variables for events displayed across the timeline. The aim of the challenge is to build tools in the context of big data analytics that can be used to aid military operations through intelligence analytics and decision-making

Analysis of the distribution of heavy metals in the soils of Bagega mining area Zamfara state, Nigeria

Uncontrolled exploitation and degradation in the environment over the past few decades as the result of urbanization and poverty has caused a serious damage to lives and properties. The study analysed the spatial distribution of heavy metal (Fe, Cu and Zn) in Bagega, Zamfara state. Three mapping units were identified and samples were collected from the top soil (0-15cm) horizon using stratified random sampling techniques. These include the Mining Processing Environment (MPE), Residential exterior (RE) and Surrounding Farmlands (SF). In each mapping units, twelve (12) samples were collected randomly. Coordinates of all samples points were recorded using GPS. The soil sample were analyse for heavy metals using Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometer (AAS) and the result were recorded in Microsoft excel and later transformed into GIS environment in the Arc GIS 10.1 version. Krigging model was used for mapping the spatial distribution of the heavy metals in the study area. The result shows that there are more concentrations of heavy metals (Fe and Cu) in the Residential exterior (RE) and streams sites. The level of heavy metal in the soils of the area were below the acceptable toxic level of and this can be attributed to the number of years quarry activities in the study area have been in operation. The study concluded that Fe and Zn are more concentrated to the mining and river sites areas, while Cu is highly concentrated at the farmlands areas. The study recommends for continuous monitoring and mining should be avoided especially closer to the residential areas.Keywords: Spatial distribution, Mapping, Heavy metals, Bageg

Mathematical analysis of a model for the transmission dynamics of Trichomonas vaginalis (TV) and HIV coinfection

A deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of HIV and Trichomonas vaginalis (TV) in a human population is designed and rigorously analysed. The model is shown to exhibit the phenomenon of backward bifurcation, where a stable disease‐free equilibrium coexists with a stable endemic equilibrium whenever the associated reproduction number is less than unity. This phenomenon can be removed by assuming that the coinfection of individuals with HIV and TV is negligible. Furthermore, in the absence of coinfection, the disease‐free equilibrium of the model is shown to be globally asymptotically stable whenever the associated reproduction number is less than unity. Numerical simulation of the model, using initial and demographic data, shows that increased incidence of TV in a population increases HIV incidence in the population. It is further shown that control strategies, such as the treatment, condom use, and counselling of individuals with TV symptoms, can lead to the effective control or elimination of the HIV in the population if their effectiveness level is high enough. The time to disease elimination is reduced if more than one strategy (hybrid strategy) is considered.South African DST/NRF SARChI chair on Mathematical Models and Methods in Bioengineering and Biosciences (M3B2) and DST-NRF Centre of Excellence in Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (CoE-MaSS).http://wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/mma2019-12-01hj2019Mathematics and Applied Mathematic

TimeSets: temporal sensemaking in intelligence analysis

TimeSets is a temporal data visualization technique designed to reveal insights into event sets, such as all the events linked to one person or organization. In this paper we describe two TimeSets-based visual analytics tools for intelligence analysis. In the first case, TimeSets is integrated with other visual analytics tools to support open-source intelligence analysis with Twitter data, particularly the challenge of finding the right questions to ask. The second case uses TimeSets in a participatory design process with analysts that aims to meet their requirements of uncertainty analysis involving fake news. Lessons learned are potentially beneficial to other application domains

Multiplex quantitative PCR for single-reaction genetically modified (GM) plant detection and identification of false-positive GM plants linked to Cauliflower mosaic virus (CaMV) infection.

BACKGROUND:Most genetically modified (GM) plants contain a promoter, P35S, from the plant virus, Cauliflower mosaic virus (CaMV), and many have a terminator, TNOS, derived from the bacterium, Agrobacterium tumefaciens. Assays designed to detect GM plants often target the P35S and/or TNOS DNA sequences. However, because the P35S promoter is derived from CaMV, these detection assays can yield false-positives from non-GM plants infected by this naturally-occurring virus. RESULTS:Here we report the development of an assay designed to distinguish CaMV-infected plants from GM plants in a single multiplexed quantitative PCR (qPCR) reaction. Following initial testing and optimization via PCR and singleplex-to-multiplex qPCR on both plasmid and plant DNA, TaqMan qPCR probes with different fluorescence wavelengths were designed to target actin (a positive-control plant gene), P35S, P3 (a CaMV-specific gene), and TNOS. We tested the specificity of our quadruplex qPCR assay using different DNA extracts from organic watercress and both organic and GM canola, all with and without CaMV infection, and by using commercial and industrial samples. The limit of detection (LOD) of each target was determined to be 1% for actin, 0.001% for P35S, and 0.01% for both P3 and TNOS. CONCLUSIONS:This assay was able to distinguish CaMV-infected plants from GM plants in a single multiplexed qPCR reaction for all samples tested in this study, suggesting that this protocol is broadly applicable and readily transferrable to any interested parties with a qPCR platform

Persistent hypertension up to one year postpartum among women with hypertensive disorders in pregnancy in a low-resource setting:A prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Hypertensive disorders in pregnancy (HDPs) are associated with lifelong cardiovascular disease risk. Persistent postpartum hypertension in HDPs could suggest progression to chronic hypertension. This phenomenon has not been well examined in low- and middle-income countries (LIMCs), and most previous follow-ups typically last for maximally six weeks postpartum. We assessed the prevalence of persistent hypertension up to one year in women with HDPs in a low resource setting and determined associated risk factors. METHODOLOGY: A prospective cohort study of women conducted at eight tertiary health care facilities in seven states of Nigeria. Four hundred and ten women with any HDP were enrolled within 24 hours of delivery and followed up at intervals until one year postpartum. Descriptive statistics were performed to express the participants’ characteristics. Univariable and multivariable logistic regressions were conducted to identify associated risk factors. RESULTS: Of the 410 women enrolled, 278 were followed up to one year after delivery (follow-up rate 68%). Among women diagnosed with gestational hypertension and pre-eclampsia/eclampsia, 22.3% (95% CI; 8.3–36.3) and 62.1% (95% CI; 52.5–71.9), respectively, had persistent hypertension at six months and this remained similar at one year 22.3% (95% CI; 5.6–54.4) and 61.2% (95% CI; 40.6–77.8). Maternal age and body mass index were significant risk factors for persistent hypertension at one year [aORs = 1.07/year (95% CI; 1.02–1.13) and 1.06/kg/m(2) (95% CI; 1.01–1.10)], respectively. CONCLUSION: This study showed a substantial prevalence of persistent hypertension beyond puerperium. Health systems in LMICs need to be organized to anticipate and maintain postpartum monitoring until blood pressure is normalized, or women referred or discharged to family physicians as appropriate. In particular, attention should be given to women who are obese, and or of higher maternal age

Can urban coffee consumption help predict US inflation?

Motivated by the importance of coffee to Americans and the significance of the coffee subsector to the US economy, we pursue three notable innovations. First, we augment the traditional Phillips curve model with the coffee price as a predictor, and show that the resulting model outperforms the traditional variant in both in-sample and out-of-sample predictability of US inflation. Second, we demonstrate the need to account for the inherent statistical features of predictors such as persistence, endogeneity, and conditional heteroskedasticity effects when dealing with US inflation. Consequently, we offer robust illustrations to show that the choice of estimator matters for improved US inflation forecasts. Third, the proposed augmented Phillips curve also outperforms time series models such as autoregressive integrated moving average and the fractionally integrated version for both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts. Our results show that augmenting the traditional Phillips curve with the urban coffee price will produce better forecast results for US inflation only when the statistical effects are captured in the estimation process. Our results are robust to alternative measures of inflation, different data frequencies, higher order moments, multiple data samples and multiple forecast horizons

Metabolic syndrome following hypertensive disorders in pregnancy in a low-resource setting:A cohort study

Objectives: Hypertensive disorders in pregnancy (HDPs) are associated with risk of future metabolic syndrome. Despite the huge burden of HDPs in sub-Saharan Africa, this association has not been adequately studied in this population. Study design: This was a prospective cohort study on pregnant women recruited between August 2017 - April 2018 and followed up to one year after their deliveries and evaluated for presence of metabolic syndrome at delivery, nine weeks, six months and one year. Main outcome measures: Prevalence of metabolic syndrome Results: A total of 488 pregnant women were included: 410 and 78 with HDPs and normotensive, respectively. None of the normotensive had metabolic syndrome until one year (1.7% = 1 out of 59 observations), while among those with HDPs were 17.4% (71 of 407), 8.7% (23 of 263), 4.7% (11 of 232) and 6.1% (17 of 278), at delivery, nine weeks, six months and one year postpartum, respectively. High BMI and blood pressure were the drivers of metabolic syndrome in this population. The incidence rate in HDPs versus normotensive at one year were, respectively, 57.5/1000 persons’ year (95%CI; 35.8 – 92.6) and 16.9/1000 persons’ years (95%CI; 2.4-118.3), with incidence rate ratio of 3.4/1000 person's years. Only parity significantly predicted the presence of metabolic syndrome at one year [(aOR= 3.26/delivery (95%CI; 1.21-8.79)]. Conclusion: HDPs were associated with a higher incidence of metabolic syndrome up to one year postpartum. Women with HDPs should be routinely screened for metabolic syndrome within the first year postpartum to reduce cardiometabolic risks.</p

Inclusion, measurement and relevance… and Covid-19

This is an accepted manuscript of an article published by Springer in Postdigital Science and Education on 17/08/2020, available online: https://doi.org/10.1007/s42438-020-00182-9 The accepted version of the publication may differ from the final published version.This paper addresses the theme of ‘widening student access, participation and lifelong learning’ within the wider issue of ‘measuring excellence’ in the UK higher education and finds them both to be problematic. An earlier paper entitled ‘Inclusion in an age of mobility’ (Traxler 2016) written over 4 years ago made the case that the inclusion agenda of the UK higher education of 1990s was largely a failure in its own terms but had in any case been made irrelevant by the subsequent onset of pervasive and ubiquitous connectivity and mobility, profoundly transforming the production, ownership, distribution and nature of learning and knowing and problematising the role and status of universities and lecturers.Published onlin