Quantum Neural Networks for Forecasting Inflation Dynamics

103–106Inflation is a key indicator in the economy that measures the average level of prices of goods and services, being an important ratio in public and private decision-making, so predicting it with precision has always been a concern of economists. This paper makes inflation predictions with different time horizons applying quantum theory through Quantum Neural Networks. The results obtained teach that Quantum Neural Networks overcome the predictive power of the existing models in the previous literature and yields a low-level of errors when predicting any change in the direction of the forecast trend

Neural networks for estimating Macro Asset Pricing model in football clubs

The recent crisis caused by COVID-19 directly affected consumption habits and thestability sof financial markets. In particular, the football industry has been hit hard bythis pandemic and therefore has more volatile stock prices. Given this new scenario,further research is needed to accurately estimate the value of the shares of footballclubs. In this paper, we estimate an asset pricing model in football clubs with differentcompositions of risk nature using non-linear techniques of artificial neural networks.Usually, asset pricing models have been estimated with linear methods such as ordi-nary least squares (...

Forecasting Stock Market Crashes via Real-Time Recession Probabilities: A Quantum Computing Approach

A fast and precise prediction of stock market crashes is an important aspect of economic growth, fiscal and monetary system because it facilitates the government the application of suitable policies. Many works have examined the behaviour of the fall of stock markets and have built models to predict them. Nevertheless, there are limitations to the available research, and the literature calls for more investigation on the topic, as currently the accuracy of the models remains low and they have only been extended for the largest economies. This study provides a comparison of Quantum forecast methods stock market declines and, therefore, a new prediction model of stock market crashes via real-time recession probabilities with the power to accurately estimate future global stock market downturn scenarios. A 104-country sample has been used, allowing the sample compositions to take into account the regional diversity of the alert warning indicators. To obtain a robust model, several alternative techniques have been employed on the sample under study, being Quantum Boltzmann Machines, which have obtained very good prediction results due to their ability to remember features and develop long-term dependencies from time series and sequential data. Our model has large policy implications for the appropriate macroeconomic policy response to downside risks, offering tools to help achieve financial stability at the international level

Quantum Monte Carlo simulations for estimating FOREX markets: A speculative attacks experience

The foreign exchange markets, renowned as the largest financial markets globally, also stand out as one of the most intricate due to their substantial volatility, nonlinearity, and irregular nature. Owing to these challenging attributes, various research endeavors have been undertaken to effectively forecast future currency prices in foreign exchange with precision. The studies performed have built models utilizing statistical methods, being the Monte Carlo algorithm the most popular. In this study, we propose to apply Auxiliary-Field Quantum Monte Carlo to increase the precision of the FOREX markets models from different sample sizes to test simulations in different stress contexts. Our findings reveal that the implementation of Auxiliary-Field Quantum Monte Carlo significantly enhances the accuracy of these models, as evidenced by the minimal error and consistent estimations achieved in the FOREX market. This research holds valuable implications for both the general public and financial institutions, empowering them to effectively anticipate significant volatility in exchange rate trends and the associated risks. These insights provide crucial guidance for future decision-making processes

Quantum Neural Networks for Forecasting Inflation Dynamics

Inflation is a key indicator in the economy that measures the average level of prices of goods and services, being an important ratio in public and private decision-making, so predicting it with precision has always been a concern of economists. This paper makes inflation predictions with different time horizons applying quantum theory through Quantum Neural Networks. The results obtained teach that Quantum Neural Networks overcome the predictive power of the existing models in the previous literature and yields a low-level of errors when predicting any change in the direction of the forecast trend

Global patterns and extreme events in sovereign risk premia: a fuzzy s deep learning comparative

Investment in foreign countries has become more common nowadays and this implies that there may be risks inherent to these investments, being the sovereign risk premium the measure of such risk. Many studies have examined the behaviour of the sovereign risk premium, nevertheless, there are limitations to the current models and the literature calls for further investigation of the issue as behavioural factors are necessary to analyse the investor’s risk perception. In addition, the methodology widely used in previous research is the regression model, and the literature shows it as scarce yet. This study provides a model for a new of the drivers of the government risk premia in developing countries and developed countries, comparing Fuzzy methods such as Fuzzy Decision Trees, Fuzzy Rough Nearest Neighbour, Neuro-Fuzzy Approach, with Deep Learning procedures such as Deep Recurrent Convolution Neural Network, Deep Neural Decision Trees, Deep Learning Linear Support Vector Machines. Our models have a large effect on the suitability of macroeconomic policy in the face of foreign investment risks by delivering instruments that contribute to bringing about financial stability at the global level. First published online 17 April 202

Las combinaciones fijas en hipertensión: análisis de impacto presupuestario para el Sistema Nacional de Salud Español de la comercialización de la combinación fija de olmesartan/amlodipino

ResumenObjetivoRealizar un análisis de impacto presupuestario (AIP) de la introducción en el Sistema Nacional de Salud (SNS) de la combinación fija (CF) de olmesartan/amlodipino (20/5, 40/5 y 40/10mg) en la indicación aprobada.DiseñoModelo de árbol de decisión que refleja el algoritmo de tratamiento más habitual en la práctica clínica de la hipertensión junto con sus probabilidades de ocurrencia.EmplazamientoPerspectiva del SNS para un período de 3 años (2010-2012).ParticipantesPoblación española hipertensa mayor de 35 años.IntervencionesIntroducción de la CF olmesartan/amlodipino en el mercado español.Mediciones principalesCostes financiados por el SNS (a PVP-IVA) para la población de pacientes susceptibles de ser tratados con la CF frente a los asumidos con la combinación libre (CL) olmesartan y amlodipino.ResultadosLa estimación del gasto farmacéutico con olmesartan y amlodipino en CL era de 25,2 M€ (primer año), 26,4 M€ el segundo año y 27,6 M€ el tercero, totalizando 79,2 M€. Según el modelo, la población susceptible de ser tratada con la CF es de 71.283 pacientes (primer año), con una tasa de crecimiento cercana al 4,8% en los sucesivos años, lo que supone un coste anual de 21,2 M€ (2010), 21,8 M€ (2011) y 22,4 M€ (2012), totalizando 65,4 M€. El AIP muestra un ahorro de 13,8 M€, siendo unos resultados robustos confirmados por los análisis de sensibilidad univariantes de tipo umbral.ConclusiónEl AIP de la CF de olmesartan/amlodipino podría generar unos ahorros netos para el SNS en 3 años de 13,8 M€.AbstractObjectiveTo carry out a budget impact analysis (BIA) of olmesartan/amlodipine (20/5, 40/5 and 40/10mg) marketed as a fixed combination (FC) in its approved indication for the National Health System (NHS).DesigWe developed a decision tree model in order to estimate usual hypertension treatment algorithm in Spanish clinical practice.SettingsThe BIA has been developed from the perspective of the NHS for a period of 3 years (years 2010-2012).ParticipantsSpanish hypertensive population ≥ 35 years old.InterventionsIntroduction into the market of a fixed combination (FC) olmesartan/amlodipine in Spain.Primary measuresExpected costs to be assumed by the Spanish NHS (RRP-VAT) for hypertensive population able to be treated with the FC versus currently assumed costs by the NHS with free combination olmesartan and amlodipine.ResultsEstimated pharmaceutical costs in hypertensive population treated with olmesartan and amlodipine (2 pills) would be €25.2M (1st year), €26.4M (2011), €27.6M (2012), with a total 3-year period of €79.2M. According to patient tree model, the population able to be treated with FC would be 71,283 patients (2010), with a growth rate of 4.8% in the successive years, which supposes an annual cost of €21.2M (2010), €21.8M (2011) and €22.4M (2012), with a total 3-year period of €65.4M. The BIA shows savings of €13.8M in a total 3-year period.ConclusionThe BIA of FC olmesartan/amlodipine could generate net savings of €13.8M for the NHS in the period ranging from years 2010 to 2012

Influencia de la tectónica cuaternaria sobre la morfología del talud continental de la región de Adra (Mar de Alborán septentrional)

El análisis de un mosaico batimétrico y de perfiles sísmicos de alta resolución ha permitido definir la geomorfología tectónica del Margen de Adra, sector norte del Mar de Alborán. Se han identificado cuatro tipos morfológicos relacionados con estructuras tectónicas: (i) Crestas longitudinales (N50-70); (ii) Escarpes lineales (N30, N55, N130, N165, N-S); (iii) Depresiones tectónicas (N130, N165, N-S), y (iv) Líneas de cambio de la pendiente (N130). Este esquema morfoestructural se relaciona con un cabalgamiento ciego (NO-SE) en el sector NO, y en el oriental con la falla de desgarre siniestra de La Serrata (NE-SO). Entre estas dos estructuras se ha desarrollado un sistema de fallas de desgarre diestras (NO-SE) que incluye a la Falla de Adra, y un corredor NNE-SSO constituido por fallas secundarias NNO-SSE. Además se han observado fallas inversas menores N-S que pueden ser consecuencia de la interferencia de los principales sistemas de fallas de la región con el Banco de Chella.The analysis of multibeam bathymetric data and high resolution seismic profiles has allowed us to define the tectonic geomorphology of the Adra margin, northern Alboran Sea. Four geomorphic tectonic-related structures have been analyzed: (i) Longitudinal ridges (N50-70); (ii) Linear scarps (N30, N55, N130, N165, N-S); (iii) Tectonic depressions (N130, N165, N-S), and (iv) Lines of changes in the slope gradient (N130). In the northwestern sector morphostructure is related to a blind thrust (NE-SW), which folds Quaternary units, and in the eastern sector is linked to the NE-SW sinistral strike slip fault of La Serrata (NE-SW). Between these two structures, a NW-SE dextral strike-slip fault system, including the Adra Fault, and a NNE-SSW highly deformed corridor constituted by secondary NNW-SSE faults have been developed. Minor high angle N-S reverse faults can be related to secondary deformation features, due mainly to the interference of Chella Bank and the regional main fault systems.Postprin

Seafloor Morphology and Processes in the Alboran Sea

The seafloor of the Alboran Sea reflects its complex tectonic, sedimentary, and oceanography dynamics as a consequence of the geological context, involving interaction between the Eurasian and African plates, and oceanographic context, as it is where the Atlantic and Mediterranean waters meet. Their physiography has a semi-enclosed configuration characterized by two margins (the Spanish Iberian and North Africa—mostly Moroccan margins) enclosing deep basins. Tectonic activity is mainly attested by folds and faults that predominantly affect the central and eastern seafloor sectors, as well as numerous seamounts and fluid-flow features (pockmarks, mud volcanoes, and diapirs) that dot the seafloor. The sedimentary and oceanographic processes allow us to distinctly define two principal environments in the Alboran Sea: the shallow proximal margin (continental shelf); and the deep distal margin (continental slope and base of the slope) with the adjacent sub-basins. The shelf mostly comprises prodeltaic and infralittoral prograding wedges, with local bedform fields, submarine valleys, and wave-cut terraces. Coastal and fluvio-marine sedimentary processes, acting since the last glacial period, are responsible for these features. The deep marine environment is characterised by the ubiquity of contourites, whose continuity is interrupted by turbidite systems, canyons, and landslides. The alongslope action of the Mediterranean waters and their interfaces with the Atlantic water has been the main process governing transport, seafloor reworking, and sedimentation of contourites. Mass-movement processes are responsible for the formation of: (1) turbidite systems—turbidity flows and mass flows were dominant during the last glacial sea-level lowstand, evolving to dilute gravity flows during present interglacial high stand; and (2) landslides—the main triggering factors comprising over-steepening, seismicity, under consolidation due to overpressure by interstitial fluids, stratigraphy, and high sedimentation rates. Locally, still-undetermined biological activity in the Spanish and coral activity in the Moroccan margin generated fields of mounded bioconstructions. The seafloor morphology of the Alboran Sea offers interesting clues for assessing the main potential geological hazards, with tectonic seismicity and landslides (as well as their related tsunamis) being some of the most important potential hazards affecting coastal populations. In addition, the seafloor morphology in combination with assemblages of habitat-forming species enables habitat identification and mapping.En prens

Submarine canyons and related features in the Alboran Sea: continental margins and major isolated reliefs

The analysis of a data set of multibeam bathymetry plus high resolution seismic and parametric profiles allow us to characterize the geomorphologic units on the Alboran Sea-floor as well as the evolution of morpho-sedimentary systems along the Pliocene and Quaternary, later than the main erosive Messinian event. Since the opening of the Gibraltar Straits, the sedimentary evolution of this basin has been controlled by the interchange of water masses between the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea. Basin physiography is also a consequence of the Pliocene-Quaternary compression which has progressively uplifted the sourrounding reliefs and deforms the interior and the margins of the basin. On this scenario, several submarine canyons and gullies have been developed in this basin which traverse especially the northern margin and the flanks of the Northern Alboran Ridge, without affecting the African margins. This fact must be related to the action of bottom contour currents which constitute the main morpho-sedimentary process. The influence of water masses distributed the sedimentary input carried by rivers and coming from the erosion of surrounding ranges. In the southern margin of this basin this influence is stronger and inhibits the development of transversal submarine canyons