692 research outputs found
Case Study in Evaluating Time Series Prediction Models Using the Relative Mean Absolute Error
Statistical prediction models inform decision-making processes in many real-world settings. Prior to using predictions in practice, one must rigorously test and validate candidate models to ensure that the proposed predictions have sufficient accuracy to be used in practice. In this article, we present a framework for evaluating time series predictions, which emphasizes computational simplicity and an intuitive interpretation using the relative mean absolute error metric. For a single time series, this metric enables comparisons of candidate model predictions against naïve reference models, a method that can provide useful and standardized performance benchmarks. Additionally, in applications with multiple time series, this framework facilitates comparisons of one or more models’ predictive performance across different sets of data. We illustrate the use of this metric with a case study comparing predictions of dengue hemorrhagic fever incidence in two provinces of Thailand. This example demonstrates the utility and interpretability of the relative mean absolute error metric in practice, and underscores the practical advantages of using relative performance metrics when evaluating predictions
Challenges in Real-Time Prediction of Infectious Disease: A Case Study of Dengue in Thailand.
Epidemics of communicable diseases place a huge burden on public health infrastructures across the world. Producing accurate and actionable forecasts of infectious disease incidence at short and long time scales will improve public health response to outbreaks. However, scientists and public health officials face many obstacles in trying to create such real-time forecasts of infectious disease incidence. Dengue is a mosquito-borne virus that annually infects over 400 million people worldwide. We developed a real-time forecasting model for dengue hemorrhagic fever in the 77 provinces of Thailand. We created a practical computational infrastructure that generated multi-step predictions of dengue incidence in Thai provinces every two weeks throughout 2014. These predictions show mixed performance across provinces, out-performing seasonal baseline models in over half of provinces at a 1.5 month horizon. Additionally, to assess the degree to which delays in case reporting make long-range prediction a challenging task, we compared the performance of our real-time predictions with predictions made with fully reported data. This paper provides valuable lessons for the implementation of real-time predictions in the context of public health decision making
The STAR Time Projection Chamber: A Unique Tool for Studying High Multiplicity Events at RHIC
The STAR Time Projection Chamber (TPC) is used to record collisions at the
Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC). The TPC is the central element in a
suite of detectors that surrounds the interaction vertex. The TPC provides
complete coverage around the beam-line, and provides complete tracking for
charged particles within +- 1.8 units of pseudo-rapidity of the center-of-mass
frame. Charged particles with momenta greater than 100 MeV/c are recorded.
Multiplicities in excess of 3,000 tracks per event are routinely reconstructed
in the software. The TPC measures 4 m in diameter by 4.2 m long, making it the
largest TPC in the world.Comment: 28 pages, 11 figure
Centrality and transverse momentum dependence of elliptic flow of multi-strange hadrons and meson in Au+Au collisions at = 200 GeV
We present high precision measurements of elliptic flow near midrapidity
() for multi-strange hadrons and meson as a function of
centrality and transverse momentum in Au+Au collisions at center of mass energy
200 GeV. We observe that the transverse momentum dependence of
and is similar to that of and , respectively,
which may indicate that the heavier strange quark flows as strongly as the
lighter up and down quarks. This observation constitutes a clear piece of
evidence for the development of partonic collectivity in heavy-ion collisions
at the top RHIC energy. Number of constituent quark scaling is found to hold
within statistical uncertainty for both 0-30 and 30-80 collision
centrality. There is an indication of the breakdown of previously observed mass
ordering between and proton at low transverse momentum in the
0-30 centrality range, possibly indicating late hadronic interactions
affecting the proton .Comment: 7 pages and 4 figures, Accepted for publication in Physical Review
Letter
Observation of charge asymmetry dependence of pion elliptic flow and the possible chiral magnetic wave in heavy-ion collisions
We present measurements of and elliptic flow, , at
midrapidity in Au+Au collisions at 200, 62.4, 39, 27,
19.6, 11.5 and 7.7 GeV, as a function of event-by-event charge asymmetry,
, based on data from the STAR experiment at RHIC. We find that
() elliptic flow linearly increases (decreases) with charge asymmetry
for most centrality bins at and higher.
At , the slope of the difference of
between and as a function of exhibits a
centrality dependence, which is qualitatively similar to calculations that
incorporate a chiral magnetic wave effect. Similar centrality dependence is
also observed at lower energies.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figure
Observation of Transverse Spin-Dependent Azimuthal Correlations of Charged Pion Pairs in at GeV
We report the observation of transverse polarization-dependent azimuthal
correlations in charged pion pair production with the STAR experiment in
collisions at RHIC. These correlations directly probe quark
transversity distributions. We measure signals in excess of five standard
deviations at high transverse momenta, at high pseudorapidities eta>0.5, and
for pair masses around the mass of the rho-meson. This is the first direct
transversity measurement in p+p collisions. Comparing the results to data from
lepton-nucleon scattering will test the universality of these spin-dependent
quantities.Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures, 15 tables. Submitted to PR
Azimuthal anisotropy in U+U and Au+Au collisions at RHIC
Collisions between prolate uranium nuclei are used to study how particle
production and azimuthal anisotropies depend on initial geometry in heavy-ion
collisions. We report the two- and four-particle cumulants, and
, for charged hadrons from U+U collisions at =
193 GeV and Au+Au collisions at = 200 GeV. Nearly fully
overlapping collisions are selected based on the amount of energy deposited by
spectators in the STAR Zero Degree Calorimeters (ZDCs). Within this sample, the
observed dependence of on multiplicity demonstrates that ZDC
information combined with multiplicity can preferentially select different
overlap configurations in U+U collisions. An initial-state model with gluon
saturation describes the slope of as a function of multiplicity in
central collisions better than one based on Glauber with a two-component
multiplicity model.Comment: Final paper version accepted for publication in Phys. Rev. Lett. New
version includes comparisons to a constituent quark glauber mode
Energy dependence of acceptance-corrected dielectron excess mass spectrum at mid-rapidity in Au+Au collisions at and 200 GeV
The acceptance-corrected dielectron excess mass spectra, where the known
hadronic sources have been subtracted from the inclusive dielectron mass
spectra, are reported for the first time at mid-rapidity in
minimum-bias Au+Au collisions at = 19.6 and 200 GeV. The excess
mass spectra are consistently described by a model calculation with a broadened
spectral function for GeV/. The integrated
dielectron excess yield at = 19.6 GeV for
GeV/, normalized to the charged particle multiplicity at mid-rapidity, has
a value similar to that in In+In collisions at = 17.3 GeV. For
= 200 GeV, the normalized excess yield in central collisions is
higher than that at = 17.3 GeV and increases from peripheral to
central collisions. These measurements indicate that the lifetime of the hot,
dense medium created in central Au+Au collisions at = 200 GeV
is longer than those in peripheral collisions and at lower energies.Comment: 9 pages, 6 figure
Long-range pseudorapidity dihadron correlations in +Au collisions at GeV
Dihadron angular correlations in +Au collisions at
GeV are reported as a function of the measured zero-degree calorimeter neutral
energy and the forward charged hadron multiplicity in the Au-beam direction. A
finite correlated yield is observed at large relative pseudorapidity
() on the near side (i.e. relative azimuth ). This
correlated yield as a function of appears to scale with the
dominant, primarily jet-related, away-side () yield. The
Fourier coefficients of the correlation, , have a strong dependence. In addition, it is
found that is approximately inversely proportional to the mid-rapidity
event multiplicity, while is independent of it with similar magnitude
in the forward (-going) and backward (Au-going) directions.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figure
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