Throughfall Nutrients in a Degraded Indigenous Fagus Orientalis Forest and a Picea Abies Plantation in the of North of Iran

Aim of study: The objective of this study was to compare the quantity and quality of TF (throughfall) in an indigenous, but degraded, stand of Fagus orientalis and Picea abies plantation. Area of study: Forests of Kelar-Dasht region located in Mazandaran province, northern Iran. Material and Methods: TF measured by twenty collectors that were distributed randomly underneath each stand. For 21 storms sampled in 2012 (August-December) and 2013 (April-June), we analyzed pH, EC, Ca2+, Mg2+, K+, NO3-, and P of gross rainfall (GR) and TF. Main results: Cumulative interception (I) for F. orientalis and P. abies were 114.2 mm and 194.8 mm of the total GR, respectively. The amount of K+ (13.4 mg L-1) and Ca2+ (0.9 mg L-1) were higher (for both elements, p = 0.001) in the TF of P. abies compared to those of F. orientalis (6.8 and 0.5, mg L-1, respectively) and GR (3.2 and 0.37 mg L-1, respectively). Conversely, mean P concentration was doubled (p = 0.022) in the TF of F. orientalis (11.1 mg L-1) compared to GR (5.8 mg L-1). Research highlights: P. abies plantations may provide a solution for reforestation of degraded F. orientalis forests of northern Iran, yet how P. abies plantations differentially affect the quality and quantity of rainfall reaching subcanopy soils (TF) compared to F. orientalis is unknown. Understanding the connection between hydrological processes and nutrient cycling in forest ecosystems is crucial for choosing the appropriate species to rehabilitate the degraded indigenous forests with nonindigenous species

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4.45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4.01-4.94) deaths and 105 million (95.0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44.4% (41.3-48.4) of all cancer deaths and 42.0% (39.1-45.6) of all DALYs. There were 2.88 million (2.60-3.18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50.6% [47.8-54.1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1.58 million (1.36-1.84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36.3% [32.5-41.3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20.4% (12.6-28.4) and DALYs by 16.8% (8.8-25.0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34.7% [27.9-42.8] and 33.3% [25.8-42.0]). Interpretation The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.Peer reviewe

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundDisorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.MethodsWe estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.FindingsGlobally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378–521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20–3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5–45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7–26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6–38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5–32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7–2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.InterpretationAs the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Peak discharge estimation to evaluate and monitor the Gumbasa Watershed performance, Central Sulawesi, Indonesia

One of the appropriate strategies to evaluate watershed health is by determining peak discharge. This is associated with the influence of frequent floods and landslides on the changes in the carrying capacity of Gumbasa watershed. It was also attached to the accelerated forest and land degradation due to encroachment, especially in the upstream. This study aims to determine the estimated peak discharge of three sub-watersheds, including Lindu, Palolo, and Gumbasa to monitor and evaluate the performance of the main watershed. This was conducted using a rational method with a combined and average flow coefficient approach, while the rainfall intensity was calculated based on the longest concentration time. The results showed the flow coefficient in the Palolo and Gumbasa downstream areas were 0.45 and 0.57, respectively and these were closer to 1 more than the 0.12 recorded for Lindu. This means some of the rainwater is flowing on the land surface, thereby causing high peak discharge, especially in the downstream. Therefore, it is necessary to conserve and restore land through reforestation and rehabilitation to minimize the flow coefficient and peak discharge

The Seasonal Fluctuation of Timber Prices in Hyrcanian Temperate Forests, Northern Iran

Seasonal fluctuations play an important role in the pricing of a timber sale. A good understanding of timber price mechanisms and predictability in the timber market would be very practical for forest owners, managers, and investors, and is crucial for the correct functioning of the timber sector. This research aimed to analyze the effect of sale season on timber (sawlog and lumber) prices of high-value species groups (e.g., oriental beech, chestnut-leaved oak, common alder, velvet maple, and common hornbeam) in the Hyrcanian temperate forests (Northern Iran). The data were collected from official sale documents of the Azarroud Forestry Plan from 1992 to 2015. The relevant data of 592 sale lots at forest roadside were extracted into a data set. Then, the average timber prices (sawlog and lumber) per season/year in quarterly frequency were calculated. In doing so, two-time series of seasonal prices for the sawlog and lumber was obtained. The stationarity of the time series was statistically verified using the augmented Dickey–Fuller test. The effect of sale seasons on timber price was first analyzed using multiple linear regression analysis dummy variables. The results showed that autumn and summer have a significant positive effect on timber prices of 6.5% and 6.1%, respectively. Additionally, the decomposition of time series results showed that the highest prices of the sawlog and lumber were in quarter 3 and quarter 2, respectively, due to an increase in construction activities that picked up in the autumn season. Information about potential price fluctuations will be plausible and allow suppliers and users of sawlogs to adjust their supply and demand. This valuable information can be used in marketing and strategic forest management planning for Hyrcanian temperate forests and other temperate countries with similar conditions

Land potential for ecotourism development and assessing landscape ecology in areas on protection of Iran

In Protected Areas (PAs), zones of ecotourism development need to be carefully chosen to minimize environmental impacts and maximize socio-economic outcomes. The excessive growth of ecotourism in PAs and insufficient monitoring have caused a decrease in ecological connectivity (EC) and unsustainability in these areas. This research has evaluated environmental potential to determine suitable zones for ecotourism development in Lar National Park (NP) and Kavdeh Wildlife Refuge (WR) and also evaluated landscape ecology changes to investigate ecological function (EF) and status of EC in these areas. To achieve this purpose, environmental potential and landscape ecology changes have been examined, using multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) model and fuzzy set theoretic approach, as well as mathematical modeling. Our mixed-method approach allowed us to identify and prepare map zones with moderate to high potential for intensive and extensive recreational development in Kavdeh. Conversely, because of the high ecological sensitivity and restrictions for human activity, Lar was not deemed suitable for ecotourism development. In addition, the landscape ecology assessment raised concerns about the increasing human activities and ecotourism development in the study areas, impacting ecological function and connectivity. Accordingly, the results demonstrated that in Lar and Kavdeh Ecological Connectivity Index (ECI) has the highest decreasing trend. The findings of this study can be used as a blueprint for modeling land potential for sustainable ecotourism development in PAs with similar geographical conditions. These findings can also help policymakers and planners to prevent habitat fragmentation and protect landscape ecology

Canopy Hydrometeorological Dynamics Across a Chronosequence of a Globally Invasive Species, Ailanthus Altissima (Mill., Tree of Heaven)

Many mechanisms aid invasive plants’ competitive interactions. Yet, the extent to which invasive plants alter canopy hydrometeorological mechanisms determining the quantity and distribution of rainwater resources to soils have never been assessed. We examine these mechanisms for a global invader, Ailanthus altissima, across an invasion chronosequence (stands aged 20, 30, 40 years) for 99 storms, each with ∼200 net rainfall observations. With age woody area index, ratio of wet canopy evaporation and rainfall rates, and stem drainage coefficient increased; while leaf area index, canopy water storage, and gap fraction declined. This corresponded to increased stemflow and decreased throughfall across annual, seasonal, and interstorm scales. Promotion of stemflow may be advantageous to the invasive species as it increases water supply to roots and may help distribute allelopathic chemicals through the soil. Further research is needed on relationships between canopy hydrometeorological changes during invasion and redistribution of water to soils

The Importance of Considering Rainfall Partitioning in Afforestation Initiatives in Semiarid Climates: a Comparison of Common Planted Tree Species in Tehran, Iran

As plantations become increasingly important sources of wood and fiber in arid/semiarid places, they have also become increasingly criticized for their hydrological impacts. An examination and comparison of gross rainfall (GR) partitioning across commonly-planted tree species (Pinus eldarica, Cupressus arizonica, Robinia pseudoacacia, and Fraxinus rotundifolia) in semiarid regions has great value for watershed and forest managers interested in managing canopy hydrological processes for societal benefit. Therefore, we performed a field study examining GR partitioning into throughfall (TF), stemflow (SF), and rainfall interception (I) for these species in the semiarid Chitgar Forest Park, Tehran, Iran. An advantage to our study is that we explore the effects of forest structural differences in plantation forests experiencing similar climatic factors and storm conditions. As such, variability in GR partitioning due to different meteorological conditions is minimized, allowing comparison of structural attributes across plantations. Our results show that commonly-selected afforestation species experiencing the same climate produced differing stand structures that differentially partition GR into TF, SF, and I. P. eldarica might be the best of the four species to plant if the primary goal of afforestation is to limit erosion and stormwater runoff as it intercepted more rainfall than other species. However, the high SF generation from F. rotundifolia, and low GR necessary to initiate SF, could maximize retention of water in the soils since SF has been shown to infiltrate along root pathways and access groundwater. A consideration of GR partitioning should be considered when selecting a species for afforestation/reforestation in water-limited ecosystems