Levels and trends of demographic indices in southern rural Mozambique: evidence from demographic surveillance in Manhiça district

BACKGROUND: In Mozambique most of demographic data are obtained using census or sample survey including indirect estimations. A method of collecting longitudinal demographic data was introduced in southern Mozambique since 1996 (DSS -Demographic Surveillance System in Manhiça district, Maputo province), but the extent to which it yields demographic measures that are typical of southern rural Mozambique has not been evaluated yet. METHODS: Data from the DSS were used to estimate the levels and trends of fertility, mortality and migration in Manhiça, between 1998 and 2005. The estimates from Manhiça were compared with estimates from Maputo province using the 1997 National census and 1997 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS). The DHS data were used to estimate levels and trends of adult mortality using the siblings' histories and the orphanhood methods. RESULTS: The populations in Manhiça and in Maputo province are young (44% <15 years in Manhiça and 42% in Maputo); with reduced adult males when compared to females (all ages sex ratio of 78.7 in Manhiça and 89 in Maputo). Fertility in Manhiça is at a similar level as in Maputo province and has remained around 5 children per woman, during the eight years of surveillance in Manhiça. Although the infant mortality rate (IMR) in Mozambique has decreased during the last two decades (from 148 deaths per 1000 live births in 1980 to 101 in 2003), it has remained stable around 80 in Manhiça during the surveillance period. Adult mortality has increased both in Manhiça (probability of dying from ages 15 to 60 increased from 0.4 in 1998 to 0.6 in 2005 in Manhiça, from 0.3 in 1992 to 0.4 in 1997 in Maputo province and from 0.1 in 1980 to 0.6 in 2000 in Mozambique). Consequently, the life expectancy decreased from 53 to 46 in Manhiça and from 42 years in 1997 to 38 in 2004 in Mozambique. Migration is high in Manhiça but tends to stabilise after the movements of resettlement that followed the end of the civil war in 1992. CONCLUSION: The population under demographic surveillance in Manhiça district presents characteristics that are typical of southern rural Mozambique, with predominance of young people and reduction of adult males. Labour migration and excess adult male mortality are the major factors for the reduction of adult males. Mortality is high and only infant mortality has started to stabilise while adult mortality has increased, and as consequence, life expectancy has decreased. The Manhiça DSS is an adequate tool to report demographic measures for southern rural Mozambique

Blood pressure thresholds in pregnancy for identifying maternal and infant risk: A secondary analysis of community-level interventions for pre-eclampsia (CLIP) trial data

Background: Blood pressure measurement is a marker of antenatal care quality. In well resourced settings, lower blood pressure cutoffs for hypertension are associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes. We aimed to study the associations between blood pressure thresholds and adverse outcomes and the diagnostic test properties of these blood pressure cutoffs in low-resource settings.Methods: We did a secondary analysis of data from 22 intervention clusters in the Community-Level Interventions for Pre-eclampsia (CLIP) cluster randomised trials (NCT01911494) in India (n=6), Mozambique (n=6), and Pakistan (n=10). We included pregnant women aged 15-49 years (12-49 years in Mozambique), identified in their community by trained community health workers, who had data on blood pressure measurements and outcomes. The trial was unmasked. Maximum blood pressure was categorised as: normal blood pressure (systolic blood pressure [sBP] [dBP] Hg), elevated blood pressure (sBP 120-129 mm Hg and dBP Hg), stage 1 hypertension (sBP 130-139 mm Hg or dBP 80-89 mm Hg, or both), non-severe stage 2 hypertension (sBP 140-159 mm Hg or dBP 90-109 mm Hg, or both), or severe stage 2 hypertension (sBP ≥160 mm Hg or dBP ≥110 mm Hg, or both). We classified women according to the maximum blood pressure category reached across all visits for the primary analyses. The primary outcome was a maternal, fetal, or neonatal mortality or morbidity composite. We estimated dose-response relationships between blood pressure category and adverse outcomes, as well as diagnostic test properties.Findings: Between Nov 1, 2014, and Feb 28, 2017, 21 069 women (6067 in India, 4163 in Mozambique, and 10 839 in Pakistan) contributed 103 679 blood pressure measurements across the three CLIP trials. Only women with non-severe or severe stage 2 hypertension, as discrete diagnostic categories, experienced more adverse outcomes than women with normal blood pressure (risk ratios 1·29-5·88). Using blood pressure categories as diagnostic thresholds (women with blood pressure within the category or any higher category vs those with blood pressure in any lower category), dose-response relationships were observed between increasing thresholds and adverse outcomes, but likelihood ratios were informative only for severe stage 2 hypertension and maternal CNS events (likelihood ratio 6·36 [95% CI 3·65-11·07]) and perinatal death (5·07 [3·64-7·07]), particularly stillbirth (8·53 [5·63-12·92]).Interpretation: In low-resource settings, neither elevated blood pressure nor stage 1 hypertension were associated with maternal, fetal, or neonatal mortality or morbidity adverse composite outcomes. Only the threshold for severe stage 2 hypertension met diagnostic test performance standards. Current diagnostic thresholds for hypertension in pregnancy should be retained.Funding: University of British Columbia, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Causes and circumstances of maternal death:a secondary analysis of the Community-Level Interventions for (CLIP) trials cohort

BACKGROUND: Incomplete vital registration systems mean that causes of death during pregnancy and childbirth are poorly understood in low-income and middle-income countries. To inform global efforts to reduce maternal mortality, we compared physician review and computerised analysis of verbal autopsies (interpreting verbal autopsies [InterVA] software), to understand their agreement on maternal cause of death and circumstances of mortality categories (COMCATs) in the Community-Level Interventions for Pre-eclampsia (CLIP) cluster randomised trials. METHODS: The CLIP trials took place in India, Pakistan, and Mozambique, enrolling pregnant women aged 12–49 years between Nov 1, 2014, and Feb 28, 2017. 69 330 pregnant women were enrolled in 44 clusters (36 008 in the 22 intervention clusters and 33 322 in the 22 control clusters). In this secondary analysis of maternal deaths in CLIP, we included women who died in any of the 22 intervention clusters or 22 control clusters. Trained staff administered the WHO 2012 verbal autopsy after maternal deaths. Two physicians (and a third for consensus, if needed) reviewed trial surveillance data and verbal autopsies, and, in intervention clusters, community health worker-led visit data. They determined cause of death according to the WHO International Classification of Diseases-Maternal Mortality (ICD-MM). Verbal autopsies were also analysed by InterVA computer models (versions 4 and 5) to generate cause of death. COMCAT analysis was provided by InterVA-5 and, in India, by physician review of Maternal Newborn Health Registry data. Causes of death and COMCATs assigned by physician review, Inter-VA-4, and InterVA-5 were compared, with agreement assessed with Cohen's κ coefficient. FINDINGS: Of 61 988 pregnancies with successful follow-up in the CLIP trials, 143 maternal deaths were reported (16 deaths in India, 105 in Pakistan, and 22 in Mozambique). The maternal death rate was 231 (95% CI 193–268) per 100 000 identified pregnancies. Most deaths were attributed to direct maternal causes (rather than indirect or undetermined causes as per ICD-MM classification), with fair to good agreement between physician review and InterVA-4 (κ=0·56 [95% CI 0·43–0·66]) or InterVA-5 (κ=0·44 [0·30–0·57]), and InterVA-4 and InterVA-5 (κ=0·72 [0·60–0·84]). The top three causes of death were the same by physician review, InterVA-4, and InterVA-5 (ICD-MM categories obstetric haemorrhage, non-obstetric complications, and hypertensive disorders); however, attribution of individual patient deaths to obstetric haemorrhage varied more between methods (physician review, 38 [27%] deaths; InterVA-4, 69 [48%] deaths; and InterVA-5, 82 [57%] deaths), than did attribution to non-obstetric causes (physician review, 39 [27%] deaths; InterVA-4, 37 [26%] deaths; and InterVA-5, 28 [20%] deaths) or hypertensive disorders (physician review, 23 [16%] deaths; InterVA-4, 25 [17%] deaths; and InterVA-5, 24 [17%] deaths). Agreement for all nine ICD-MM categories was fair for physician review versus InterVA-4 (κ=0·48 [0·38–0·58]), poor for physician review versus InterVA-5 (κ=0·36 [0·27–0·46]), and good for InterVA-4 versus InterVA-5 (κ=0·69 [0·59–0·79]). The most commonly assigned COMCATs by InterVA-5 were emergencies (68 [48%] of 143 deaths) and health systems (62 [43%] deaths), and by physician review (India only) were health systems (seven [44%] of 16 deaths) and inevitability (five [31%] deaths); agreement between InterVA-5 and physician review (India data only) was poor (κ=0·04 [0·00–0·15]). INTERPRETATION: Our findings indicate that InterVA-5 is less accurate than InterVA-4 at ascertaining causes and circumstances of maternal death, when compared with physician review. Our results suggest a need to improve the next iteration of InterVA, and for researchers and clinicians to preferentially use InterVA-4 when recording maternal deaths. FUNDING: University of British Columbia (grantee of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation)

A comparison of all-cause and cause-specific mortality by household socioeconomic status across seven INDEPTH network health and demographic surveillance systems in sub-Saharan Africa

Background: Understanding socioeconomic disparities in all-cause and cause-specific mortality can help inform prevention and treatment strategies. Objectives: To quantify cause-specific mortality rates by socioeconomic status across seven health and demographic surveillance systems (HDSS) in five countries (Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, and Nigeria) in the INDEPTH Network in sub-Saharan Africa. Methods: We linked demographic residence data with household survey data containing living standards and education information we used to create a poverty index. Person-years lived and deaths between 2003 and 2016 (periods varied by HDSS) were stratified in each HDSS by age, sex, year, and number of deprivations on the poverty index (0–8). Causes of death were assigned to each death using the InterVA-4 model based on responses to verbal autopsy questionnaires. We estimated rate ratios between socioeconomic groups (2–4 and 5–8 deprivations on our poverty index compared to 0–2 deprivations) for specific causes of death and calculated life expectancy for the deprivation groups. Results: Our pooled data contained almost 3.5 million person-years of observation and 25,038 deaths. All-cause mortality rates were higher among people in households with 5–8 deprivations on our poverty index compared to 0–2 deprivations, controlling for age, sex, and year (rate ratios ranged 1.42 to 2.06 across HDSS sites). The poorest group had consistently higher death rates in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions (rate ratios ranged 1.34–4.05) and for non-communicable diseases in several sites (1.14–1.93). The disparities in mortality between 5–8 deprivation groups and 0–2 deprivation groups led to lower life expectancy in the higher-deprivation groups by six years in all sites and more than 10 years in five sites. Conclusions: We show large disparities in mortality on the basis of socioeconomic status across seven HDSS in sub-Saharan Africa due to disparities in communicable disease mortality and from non-communicable diseases in some sites. Life expectancy gaps between socioeconomic groups within sites were similar to the gaps between high-income and lower-middle-income countries. Prevention and treatment efforts can benefit from understanding subpopulations facing higher mortality from specific conditions

A 10 year study of the cause of death in children under 15 years in Manhiça, Mozambique

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Approximately 46 million of the estimated 60 million deaths that occur in the world each year take place in developing countries. Further, this mortality is highest in Sub-Saharan Africa, although causes of mortality in this region are not well documented. The objective of this study is to describe the most frequent causes of mortality in children under 15 years of age in the demographic surveillance area of the Manhiça Health Research Centre, between 1997 and 2006, using the verbal autopsy tool.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Verbal autopsy interviews for causes of death in children began in 1997. Each questionnaire was reviewed independently by three physicians with experience in tropical paediatrics, who assigned the cause of death according to the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10). Each medical doctor attributed a minimum of one and a maximum of 2 causes. A final diagnosis is reached when at least two physicians agreed on the cause of death.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>From January 1997 to December 2006, 568499 person-year at risk (pyrs) and 10037 deaths were recorded in the Manhiça DSS. 3730 deaths with 246658 pyrs were recorded for children under 15 years of age. Verbal autopsy interviews were conducted on 3002 (80.4%) of these deaths. 73.6% of deaths were attributed to communicable diseases, non-communicable diseases accounted for 9.5% of the defined causes of death, and injuries for 3.9% of causes of deaths. Malaria was the single largest cause, accounting for 21.8% of cases. Pneumonia with 9.8% was the second leading cause of death, followed by HIV/AIDS (8.3%) and diarrhoeal diseases with 8%.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The results of this study stand out the big challenges that lie ahead in the fight against infectious diseases in the study area. The pattern of childhood mortality in Manhiça area is typical of developing countries where malaria, pneumonia and HIV/AIDS are important causes of death.</p

Choosing blood pressure thresholds to inform pregnancy care in the community: An analysis of cluster trials

Objective: To inform digital health design by evaluating diagnostic test properties of antenatal blood pressure (BP) outputs and levels to identify women at risk of adverse outcomes.Design: Planned secondary analysis of cluster randomised trials.Setting: India, Pakistan, Mozambique.Population: Women with in-community BP measurements and known pregnancy outcomes.Methods: Blood pressure was defined by its outputs (systolic and/or diastolic, systolic only, diastolic only or mean arterial pressure [calculated]) and level: normotension-1 (\u3c135/85 mmHg), normotension-2 (135-139/85-89 mmHg), non-severe hypertension (140-149/90-99 mmHg; 150-154/100-104 mmHg; 155-159/105-109 mmHg) and severe hypertension (≥160/110 mmHg). Dose-response (adjusted risk ratio [aRR]) and diagnostic test properties (negative [-LR] and positive [+LR] likelihood ratios) were estimated.Main outcome measures: Maternal/perinatal composites of mortality/morbidity.Results: Among 21 069 pregnancies, different BP outputs had similar aRR, -LR, and +LR for adverse outcomes. No BP level (even normotension-1) was associated with low risk (all -LR ≥0.20). Across outcomes, risks rose progressively with higher BP levels above normotension-1. For each of maternal central nervous system events and stillbirth, BP ≥155/105 mmHg showed at least good diagnostic test performance (+LR ≥5.0) and BP ≥135/85 mmHg at least fair performance, similar to BP ≥140/90 mmHg (+LR 2.0-4.99).Conclusions: In the community, normal BP values do not provide reassurance about subsequent adverse outcomes. Given the similar performance of BP cut-offs of 135/85 and 140/90 mmHg for hypertension, and 155/105 and 160/110 mmHg for severe hypertension, digital decision support for women in the community should consider using these lower thresholds

Identifying HIV care continuum gaps with verbal autopsy

UNAIDS estimates that there are over 36 million people infected with HIV globally, with disproportionate burdens in eastern and southern Africa where major treatment programmes have been introduced.1,2 Better understanding of the causes of HIV-related mortality is needed to fill major knowledge gaps and to enable improvement of the impact of HIV treatment programmes. Most deaths (including AIDS-related ones) in low-income and middle-income countries occur at home and without medical attention at the time of death.Sin financiación14.753 JCR (2018) Q1, 2/89 Infectious Diseases, 5/158 Immunology8.071 SJR (2018) Q1, 1/71 Virology, 4/106 Epidemiology, 5/224 Immunology, 5/298 Infectious DiseasesNo data IDR 2018UE

HIV Incidence and Spatial Clustering in a Rural Area of Southern Mozambique

BACKGROUND: Monitoring the HIV epidemic in a defined population is critical for planning treatment and preventive strategies. This is especially important in sub-Saharan Africa, which harbours the highest burden of the disease. OBJECTIVE: To estimate HIV incidence in adults aged 18-47 years old and to investigate spatial variations of HIV prevalence in Manhica, a semi-rural area of southern Mozambique. METHODS: Two cross-sectional community-based surveys were conducted in 2010 and 2012 to determine HIV prevalence. Individual participants were randomly selected from the demographic surveillance system in place in the area and voluntary HIV counselling and testing was offered at the household level. HIV incidence was calculated using prevalence estimates from the two sero-surveys. Each participant's household was geocoded using a global information system. The Spatial Scan Statistics programme was used to identify areas with disproportionate excess in HIV prevalence. RESULTS: A total of 1511 adults were tested. The estimated HIV prevalence in the community was 39.9% in 2010 and 39.7% in 2012. The overall HIV incidence was 3.6 new infections per 100 person-years at risk (PYAR) [95CI 1.56; 7.88], assuming stable epidemic conditions, and tended to be higher in women (4.9/100 PYAR [95CI 1.74; 11.85]) than in men (3.2/PYAR [95CI 1.36; 9.92]). One cluster with significant excess HIV prevalence was identified at the same geographic location in both surveys. This cluster had an HIV prevalence of 79.0% in 2010 and 52.3% in 2012. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of these first individually-randomised community-HIV sero-surveys conducted in Mozambique reinforce the need to combine HIV incidence estimates and research on micro geographical infection patterns to guide and consolidate effective prevention strategies

Predictors of personal exposure to black carbon among women in southern semi-rural Mozambique

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has the highest proportion of people using unclean fuels for household energy, which can result in products of incomplete combustion that are damaging for health. Black carbon (BC) is a useful marker of inefficient combustion-related particles; however, ambient air quality data and temporal patterns of personal exposure to BC in SSA are scarce. We measured ambient elemental carbon (EC), comparable to BC, and personal exposure to BC in women of childbearing age from a semi-rural area of southern Mozambique. We measured ambient EC over one year (2014-2015) using a high-volume sampler and an off-line thermo-optical-transmission method. We simultaneously measured 5-min resolved 24-h personal BC using a portable MicroAeth (AE51) in 202 women. We used backwards stepwise linear regression to identify predictors of log-transformed 24-h mean and peak (90th percentile) personal BC exposure. We analyzed data from 187 non-smoking women aged 16-46 years. While daily mean ambient EC reached moderate levels (0.9 μg/m3, Standard Deviation, SD: 0.6 μg/m3), daily mean personal BC reached high levels (15 μg/m3, SD: 19 μg/m3). Daily patterns of personal exposure revealed a peak between 6 and 7 pm (>35 μg/m3), attributable to kerosene-based lighting. Key determinants of mean and peak personal exposure to BC were lighting source, kitchen type, ambient EC levels, and temperature. This study highlights the important contribution of lighting sources to personal exposure to combustion particles in populations that lack access to clean household energy