Examining the impact of forest protection status on firewood sufficiency in rural Africa

Millions of people living in poverty depend on non-timber forest products (NTFPs), yet forest protection causes displacement, replacement or reduction of NTFP extraction activities, with implications for human welfare. Here, we assess the impact of forest protection on a novel measure of wellbeing that incorporates both objective and subjective components of people's lives. In five villages near forests with mixed protection status in Tanzania, household perceived need for firewood is compared with actual consumption in order to provide a simple metric of firewood sufficiency. Firewood sufficiency varied with forest protection status, with non-compliance inferred by household ability to meet firewood needs despite forest access restrictions. Fuel-efficient stove ownership improved the perceived ability to meet firewood needs; however, actual consumption remained unchanged. Firewood sufficiency was significantly lower for those sourcing firewood outside forests, and increased household awareness of the management authority significantly reduced firewood consumption. In a forest landscape of mixed protection status, pressure will likely be displaced to the forest with the least active management authority, affecting their efficiency as non-extractive reserves. Our findings reinforce the need for a landscape approach to forest management planning that accounts for local needs, to avoid leakage to other less well-protected forests and detriment to household welfare

A new integrated assessment framework for climate-smart nutrition security in sub-Saharan Africa: the integrated Future Estimator for Emissions and Diets (iFEED)

Climate change will put millions more people in Africa at risk of food and nutrition insecurity by 2050. Integrated assessments of food systems tend to be limited by either heavy reliance on models or a lack of information on food and nutrition security. Accordingly, we developed a novel integrated assessment framework that combines models with in-country knowledge and expert academic judgement to explore climate-smart and nutrition-secure food system futures: the integrated Future Estimator for Emissions and Diets (iFEED). Here, we describe iFEED and present its application in Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania and Zambia. The iFEED process begins with a participatory scenario workshop. In-country stakeholders identify two key drivers of food system change, and from these, four possible scenarios are defined. These scenarios provide the underlying narratives of change to the food system. Integrated modelling of climate change, food production and greenhouse gas emissions is then used to explore nutrition security and climate-smart agriculture outcomes for each scenario. Model results are summarised using calibrated statements - quantitative statements of model outcomes and our confidence in them. These include statements about the way in which different trade futures interact with climate change and domestic production in determining nutrition security at the national level. To understand what the model results mean for food systems, the calibrated statements are expanded upon using implication statements. The implications rely on input from a wide range of academic experts – including agro-ecologists and social scientists. A series of workshops are used to incorporate in-country expertise, identifying any gaps in knowledge and summarising information for country-level recommendations. iFEED stakeholder champions help throughout by providing in-country expertise and disseminating knowledge to policy makers. iFEED has numerous novel aspects that can be used and developed in future work. It provides information to support evidence-based decisions for a climate-smart and nutrition-secure future. In particular, iFEED: i. employs novel and inclusive reporting of model results and associated in-country food system activities, with comprehensive reporting of uncertainty; ii. includes climate change mitigation alongside adaptation measures; and iii. quantifies future population-level nutrition security, as opposed to simply assessing future production and food security implications